We should have a fun weekend ahead of us. Not only do we have a slew of intriguing and relevant baseball games, but with the MLB Trade Deadline only days away (August 3, 6 p.m. ET), a few of the teams mentioned below could see major roster changes. I’m as clueless as the rest of you when it comes to topics like Tarik Skubal’s landing place. I have no idea where he’ll end up. Will Sandy Alcantara once again stay put in Miami after what seems like an eternity of annual Trade Deadline rumors surrounding his name? Who’s a buyer and who is a seller? We never really know until the last minute. Sometimes things are leaked, and we assume one team is staying put, and then suddenly they deal for a big bat or arm.
The way I see it…Six teams are 10 or more games out of a playoff spot and should be sellers (Royals, A’s, Angels, Giants, Mets, Rockies). The other 24 clubs are all within 5 ½ games of a postseason berth and have a shot if things go well over the last two months of the regular season. Those are facts. The rest I’ll leave up to the insiders to figure out. I’m here to give you the top five series of the weekend. Off we go.
No. 1: White Sox (57-51) at Rays (64-44)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Tampa Bay can thank Chicago for taking the final two games of four against the Yankees this week. It was a series that appeared to be New York’s before the White Sox rallied from a 4-0 deficit on Wednesday to win in extras and followed that up by taking the series finale courtesy of a bases-loaded game-winning free pass on Thursday. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay won its final two games at home on Wednesday and Thursday against Texas for a 2-1 series victory, and with that, the Rays now have a 3 ½ game lead over the Yanks in the AL East.
As a thank you to the visiting ChiSox, I expect the Rays to do what they’ve been doing all season long. Send the road team packing with a series loss. Tampa Bay is an MLB-best 40-16 at home. They have a 13-3-2 home series record, and the last set they dropped at Tropicana Field came at the start of June when they were swept by Detroit in three games.
It has not been a pretty picture in the AL Central. Chicago enters play with a 12-12 record in July. They lead Cleveland by two games in the division, who also has a 12-12 record this month. The hottest teams in the AL Central have been the Twins and Tigers at 14-9 in July. They sit three and 6 ½ games out of first place, respectively.
The bottom line and why this series deserves the No. 1 spot this weekend: If the playoffs started today, these would be the American League’s top two seeds. As a reward, that would come with byes to the ALDS. The Rays swept Chicago at Rate Field in April and outscored the Sox 21-11 over those three victories.
No. 2: Rangers (55-54) at Astros (55-55)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If the AL Central hasn’t been a pretty picture, then what could possibly describe the AL West? Here’s a nutty fact about this division. Of the five AL West members, only the Astros, with three winning months, will enter August with more than one winning month so far this season. Yet, despite Houston’s solid play lately, they enter July 31 with a .500 record because of an awful start to the campaign that saw them go 12-20 in March and April combined. What could best describe the AL West? I’ll give you one word. Terrible.
Houston has a 6-4 record versus Texas this year. The Rangers won the latest head-to-head series, 2-1, at Globe Life Field earlier this month. This will be the last time these AL West contenders meet in the regular season. That puts this series at about a nine out of 10 on the importance scale.
As mentioned, the Astros have been by far the most consistent team in this division since May. They are 8-2 over their last 10 contests after a road sweep in Anaheim this week, and their record reached .500 for the first time since early April. They have the Triple Crown threat continuing to throttle opposing pitching. Yordan Alvarez enters this series with an AL-leading .321 batting average, 35 homers, and 80 RBI. Houston’s biggest weakness is its starting pitching staff, which enters this series with an American League-worst 5.17 ERA. If Friday’s Game 1 starter Hunter Brown looks anything like he did in his last start versus the White Sox (W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 7 K), then maybe via some Trade Deadline pitching additions, this rotation could be okay going forward. Brown (9 GS, 2-1, 3.45 ERA) will face Rangers veteran Nathan Eovaldi in the opener (20 GS, 10-8, 4.05 ERA).
Texas has an 11-12 record this month, and they are the only division leader with a negative run differential (-22). This division is as unpredictable as it is terrible, but that’s kind of what makes it fascinating over the next two months. Right now, other than the AL Central, there’s no other division that has three clubs within three games of first place. Go figure that the two worst divisions in baseball will probably have the most exciting races going forward.
No. 3: Yankees (61-48) at Cubs (62-47)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If there’s anything close to a mirror image between an AL and NL club, these two teams would be it. If the playoffs started today, New York would be the American League’s top wild card squad, while Chicago would be the National League’s No. 1 WC team. Both franchises have a comfortable wild card lead over the next best squads. New York leads Boston by 3 ½ games and the Cubs have a five-game cushion on the Diamondbacks.
For as comfortable a lead as both franchises have in the wild-card race, neither is on the cusp of a division title. As mentioned in the No. 1 slot earlier, Tampa Bay increased its AL East lead to 3 ½ games over New York after the Yankees split their series with the White Sox. The Cubs trail Milwaukee by 5 ½ games in the NL Central and won’t have another crack at the Brew Crew until exactly one month from today, on August 31, when they begin a four-game series in Chicago. We’ll see what the race looks like by then before jumping to any conclusions about the Cubbies’ division title hopes.
This series kicks off the weekend schedule with a 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch at Wrigley Field on Friday. By the time this article is released, that game will be well underway. But I’ll still give you the expected pitching matchups for that contest and the rest of the series.
Friday: NYY – Will Warren (21 G, 20 GS, 7-5, 4.41 ERA) versus CHC – Shota Imanaga (21 GS, 7-8, 3.72 ERA)
Saturday: NYY – Max Fried (12 GS, 4-3, 3.23 ERA) versus CHC – David Peterson (21 G, 13 GS, 6-7, 5.80 ERA)
Sunday: NYY – Gerrit Cole (12 GS, 4-5, 3.57 ERA) versus CHC – Colin Rea (22 G, 18 GS, 8-7, 4.67 ERA)
No. 4: Nationals (55-55) at Atlanta (64-45)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Atlanta won Thursday’s opener, 5-4.
What a weird time to be a Nationals fan. Seriously, think about this for a moment. Washington leads MLB with a .446 slugging percentage. The Dodgers are the next closest at .433. The Nats have scored 600 runs this year. No other club has reached 570 runs scored. The offense is so good that the franchise hasn’t denied trade rumors surrounding their hottest hitter since the All-Star break, shortstop CJ Abrams. The 25-year-old has a .377/.431/.849 slash line over 13 second-half contests, and yet if Washington is serious about making a run at the postseason for the first time since their 2019 World Series year, they are undoubtedly going to need pitching upgrades to both the starting rotation and bullpen. Their 4.42 starter ERA is 13th in the NL, and their reliever ERA is dead last in the league at 5.00 on the dot. If your bullpen is worse than Colorado’s, you’ve got serious problems.
Now, does that mean Abrams or any key player that would break up this team’s amazing offensive flow is worth trading at this point in hopes of making a push for the final NL wild-card position with a boatload of other teams chasing the same thing? I don’t think so. Abrams’ contract is under arbitration control through 2028. If he’s traded now, I’m not sure the pitching return puts this team over the edge even if they sneak into the playoffs. And if they missed the postseason after trading their young star, it would only tick off the fan base even more. We’ll see how the Nats play this. Either way, it’s difficult to see this club making any kind of postseason run without serious upgrades to the pitching staff.
So what’s all this mean for Washington in this weekend’s four-game series with the NL East leaders? Not much really. I’m not sure if winning or losing this series makes much of a difference in what the front office’s plans are before Monday’s deadline. The Nats dropped Thursday’s opener 5-4 despite taking an early 3-0 advantage. Coming into Friday’s contest, Washington trails Philadelphia by 2 ½ games for the final NL wild card spot and is 9 ½ games behind Atlanta in the division.
As for Georgia’s squad, they are suddenly cruising once again to a comfortable division lead thanks to recent struggles by the Phillies and Marlins. Atlanta is the only NL East club with a winning record this month at 15-11. Their seven-game advantage in the division is the second-highest in MLB behind the Dodgers’ 12-game edge in the NL West.
No. 5: Red Sox (57-51) at Dodgers (69-40)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Speaking of those Dodgers. The 12-game lead in the NL West got me thinking about something today. The worst part about covering the Blue Crew’s second-half cakewalk to the NL West title is exactly that. It’s a cakewalk. They are the only team in baseball that I all but guarantee has won their division before the calendar flips to August. It’s over in the NL West. The Los Angeles Dodgers will not blow a dozen-game advantage over the final two months of the regular season. All they care about now is health and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and to be honest, I think the latter is a distant second to making sure their squad is at full strength come October.
If the Red Sox were in the thick of the AL East hunt, I’d probably rank this series ahead of No. 3 and No. 4 on the list. You could argue that Boston is technically in the hunt at seven games back of Tampa Bay, thanks to their amazing 20-4 July record. However, until they are within at least five games of the American League’s best team, I’m not willing to say the Red Sox will continue to play at this incredible level and catch a Rays squad that is nearly unstoppable at Tropicana Field. I love what Boston has done. They’ve won seven straight series and now play at Dodger Stadium this weekend against MLB’s top club. This should be a competitive and entertaining matchup.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: BOS – Ranger Suarez (18 GS, 4-3, 3.02 ERA) versus LAD – Bullpen game. I’m going by Nick Pollack’s SP Streamer Ranks for this one. If we want to be technical, it looks like Dodgers reliever Edgardo Henriquez (41 G, 4-1, 2.79 ERA) will get the first-inning nod.
Saturday: BOS – Payton Tolle (17 GS, 6-6, 3.32 ERA) versus LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (19 GS, 11-6, 2.72 ERA)
Sunday: BOS – Jake Bennett (11 GS, 6-4, 2.74 ERA) versus LAD – Emmet Sheehan
Missed the Top Five
Pirates (55-55) at Reds (51-57): Four games *Reds won Thursday’s opener, 3-2.
Phillies (57-52) at Orioles (53-56): Three games
Cardinals (54-55) at Blue Jays (50-59): Three games
Diamondbacks (57-52) at Guardians (56-54): Three games
Marlins (55-55) at Mets (47-63): Four games *Mets won Thursday’s opener, 4-2.
Royals (46-64) at Rockies (42-67): Three games
Brewers (67-41) at Angels (42-67): Three games
Tigers (51-58) at A’s (45-64): Three games
Giants (47-62) at Padres (55-54): Four games *Giants won Thursday’s opener, 4-1.
Twins (55-55) at Mariners (53-57): Three games
