This is it. The final weekend of the first half gets underway on Friday night. Every series is a three-gamer with the exception of the Rockies-Giants. San Fran won the first of four contests on Thursday, 8-2, but honestly, if I had to rank every series from 1-15, that matchup would be at the bottom. The Giants and Rockies are the two worst clubs in the National League and sit 12 ½ and 14 ½ games out of a wild card spot, respectively.
This weekend’s top five list has a solid mix of division and interleague battles. As usual, when it comes to the No. 5 spot, I often go back and forth between at least two worthy series. There were easily four series that could have taken the fifth spot this weekend, but I settled on the Mariners and Rays, given where they are in the overall playoff picture. The Yankees vs. Nats, Atlanta vs. St. Louis, and even the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers were all considered and ultimately fell short of the big list. That leaves us with two division matchups, a pair of entertaining interleague meetings, and the aforementioned Seattle vs. Tampa Bay series.
A quick reminder before we begin. With the MLB All-Star break next week, there will be no MLB Series Preview on Monday, July 13. The next installment will be released on Friday, July 17.
No. 1: Astros (46-49) at Rangers (47-46)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I’ve mentioned on more than a few occasions how odd it is when the first meeting between division opponents doesn’t occur until June. That’s been the case numerous times this season around MLB. When it comes to this AL West rivalry, that’s definitely not the situation. Houston and Texas met seven times in May, and after this series concludes on Sunday, they’ll play only three more games, beginning on July 31 in Houston. That will conclude their season series, with nearly a full two months remaining on the regular-season calendar. That two-month gap between meetings to end the campaign is odd to me as well, but when you only face a team 13 times a year within your own division, it’s going to happen.
Anyway, Houston went 5-2 against Texas in May, but has struggled mightily versus the rest of the AL West. The ‘Stros have a 7-14 record against everyone else in the division, and that is one of the key reasons why they are currently in third place and two games behind the Rangers for the top spot.
As for Texas, they continue to see-saw with the Mariners atop the division and, entering Friday, have a half-game lead over the 2025 AL West champs. The Rangers are coming off a 2-1 series win over the last-place Angels, and if the playoffs started today, they’d be hosting Seattle in the Best-of-3 ALWC.
I might very well have this series ranked too high on the list. It’s probably the weakest No. 1 ranking I’ve had this year, especially considering that Houston and Texas have a combined -62 run differential. However, it is possible that if Houston continues its dominance over the Lone Stars this weekend, they could enter the All-Star break with the AL West’s top record, depending on how Seattle plays at Tampa Bay. Two games separate the three division contenders. I’m interested to see how this weekend goes for all three squads in what many consider MLB’s weakest division.
Houston’s right-hander Hunter Brown (6 GS, 1-0, 3.38 ERA) gets the ball in Friday’s opener against the Rangers’ 31-year-old Cal Quantrill (18 G, 3 GS, 3-1, 3.35 ERA).
No. 2: Brewers (59-34) at Pirates (47-47)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If the Pirates and Brewers were closer in the standings, then this series would easily take the No. 1 slot. However, Milwaukee is running away with the NL Central and enters this weekend with a seven-game lead over Chicago. No other club is within 10 games of the Brew Crew, including Pittsburgh, which is currently 12 ½ games out and realistically can only hope for a wild card berth at best (currently five games back of the third NL WC spot).
In their only get-together so far, Pittsburgh won two of three meetings at Milwaukee in early April. In Game 1 of that series, we witnessed the dominant version of Paul Skenes. Last year’s NL Cy Young winner allowed one Milwaukee hit over seven scoreless frames in the Buccos’ 6-0 victory. Skenes hasn’t been great lately, and collected his first win since mid-May in his last start versus Atlanta on Tuesday. Up next, we’ll get what is inarguably the most intriguing pitching matchup of the weekend when Skenes (19 GS, 7-8, 3.58 ERA) takes on the National League’s top pitcher so far this season, Jacob Misiorowski (18 GS, 10-4, 1.62 ERA). Skenes and Misiorowski have been the two most exciting and talked-about young starting hurlers in the game over the last few seasons.
Sunday’s highly anticipated pitching duel alone makes this a worthy top-five series. But the impact on Pittsburgh going into the second half could be huge. The Pirates rank fourth in the NL Central, have a few teams to pass if a wild card berth is in their future, and begin the second half with a pair of road series versus the Guardians and Yankees before returning home to face the Cubs for three contests. Given the losses of impact bats like Oneil Cruz (10-day IL with a fractured left hand, expected to return in late July) and rookie Konnor Griffin (10-day IL with a torn finger tendon, expected to return in 8-10 weeks), I’m finding it difficult to believe this club has enough firepower to hang in the playoff race. I counted them out once already earlier this season, and it made me look foolish. However, if they are swept at home this weekend, it’s going to be hard to hang in the NL postseason picture without two of their best players and a difficult schedule following the All-Star break.
I’ve already mentioned Sunday’s pitching matchup. Let’s look at Friday and Saturday.
Friday: MIL – Brandon Sproat (17 G, 15 GS, 3-4, 5.13 ERA) versus PIT – Braxton Ashcraft (18 GS, 9-3, 3.24 ERA)
Saturday: MIL – Shane Drohan (18 G, 8 GS, 4-2, 2.97 ERA) versus PIT – Bubba Chandler (18 G, 17 GS, 3-8, 4.82 ERA)
No. 3: Phillies (52-42) at Tigers (43-50)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Speaking of highly anticipated pitching matchups, I would argue that Sunday’s duel between Philadelphia’s All-Star snub, Zack Wheeler (14 GS, 9-1, 2.28 ERA), and two-time reigning AL Cy Young, Tarik Skubal (12 GS, 5-4, 3.06 ERA), could be even better than the Misiorowski-Skenes matchup. Skubal has looked solid in his four starts since returning from elbow surgery, and tossed 96 pitches over five innings for a win versus the A’s on Tuesday. Wheeler threw 104 pitches over seven innings while striking out 14 Reds on Tuesday after being left off the NL All-Star roster.
My favorite quote in MLB this year came from Wheeler after that dominant outing versus Cincy regarding the All-Star snub:
“It pisses me off, and it’s kind of BS.”
And that’s coming from a player who often keeps to himself and rarely makes comments like that. Folks, I can’t wait for Sunday’s battle. I would take Skubal and Wheeler in a big game all day over Misiorowski and Skenes. If I have to predict which duo will combine to go deeper into their respective starts, I’m taking the Wheeler-Skubal combo.
I’m starting to see a path for the Detroit Tigers to possibly climb back in the AL Central; currently 4 ½ games out with three teams ahead of them. The Tigers are on a five-game winning streak and have a very winnable schedule for the rest of July once the second half begins next weekend (3 games @ LAA, 3 @ CHC, 3 vs. KC, 3 vs. BAL). Three out of four series versus last-place clubs to end the month is very favorable. Of course, the question will be: could their playoff hopes completely fall apart if Skubal departs sometime before the August 3 Trade Deadline? There are a lot of questions in Detroit right now, and if they weren’t playing good ball, this series versus Philadelphia wouldn’t be nearly as interesting.
The Phillies are tied with the Marlins at three games back of Atlanta in the NL East. They have a 3-3 record on their current nine-game road trip and will begin the second half with home matchups against the Mets and Dodgers, respectively.
Friday’s expected pitching matchup features two former high-quality arms in the midst of rough seasons. However, both pitched fairly well in their last starts. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (18 GS, 3-6, 5.87 ERA) faces Detroit’s Jack Flaherty (17 GS, 2-8, 4.60 ERA). Saturday’s matchup will pair Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sánchez (19 GS, 10-4, 2.62 ERA), who is coming off his worst start of ’26 on Monday versus Kansas City (L, 9 ER, 12 H), against Tigers right-hander Casey Mize (13 GS, 4-5, 2.64 ERA).
No. 4: Guardians (48-46) at Marlins (52-42)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The hottest franchise in baseball since June, with the longest current winning streak at six games. That’s right, I’m referring to the Miami Marlins, who enter this weekend tied with Philadelphia for the second NL wild card slot. The Fish are three games ahead of St. Louis for the final wild card position, and will welcome the AL Central co-leaders to town for a three-game set beginning on Friday.
Seattle had a 1½-game advantage in the AL West before their most recent series at LoanDepot Park against Miami. The Marlins swept them in three contests, dropping the Mariners to 47-47 and a half-game back of Texas in the division. This matchup against Cleveland has a similar feel. Cleveland is tied with Chicago atop the AL Central, and if the Guardians lose this set, they could be out of the division’s top spot and possibly be in third place entering the second half, depending on Minnesota’s results against the Angels.
Right now, Miami is sizzling. It doesn’t matter whether they are facing good clubs or bad clubs; the Marlins are proving they can hang with anyone, and their 29-24 record versus winning teams shows it. If I had to give my sleeper pick for the NL MVP of the first half, Miami’s shortstop Otto Lopez would be right there. I can’t ignore a player on a franchise with the second-lowest payroll who leads MLB in hits (127), batting average (.345), and doubles (26). Lopez also ranks in the National League’s top 10 in runs (61), triples (6), and OPS (.900).
Unfortunately for Lopez and the rest of the NL MVP hopefuls, this award is probably not going to anyone not named Shohei Ohtani in the near future as long as the four-time MVP is healthy and performing at a high level with the stick and on the bump. However, there’s always second place, and I think if Lopez continues to play at this level in the second half, and Miami hangs in the playoff race, he’ll need serious consideration.
Friday’s series opener is expected to see Cleveland’s SP Parker Messick (18 GS, 7-5, 2.80 ERA) face Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (19 GS, 10-4, 4.00 ERA).
No. 5: Mariners (47-47) at Rays (54-37)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The good news for Seattle is that despite being swept in Miami this week, they are only a half-game back in a very weak and winnable AL West. The M’s are the only team in the division with a positive run differential (+20), and no other team is even close. The bad news for the Mariners is that despite that solid run differential, they aren’t cruising through the AL West. It is possible that if Tampa Bay sweeps this series, Seattle could enter the All-Star break in third place if Houston does the same to Texas.
The other not-so-good news for Seattle comes with the recent update that their top hitter, Julio Rodríguez, is unlikely to return from the 7-day concussion IL as originally planned for the start of this series. If that’s the case, Seattle will have to figure out a way to score more than nine runs over a three-game span as they just did in Miami. Tampa Bay continues to lead the AL East by four games after splitting its latest series with the Yankees at Tropicana Field, but still owns MLB’s best home record at 33-14.
These squads will face off again in early August. Last year, they split their season series, 3-3.
Missed the Top Five
Yankees (51-42) at Nationals (48-46): Three games
Royals (38-56) at Orioles (43-51): Three games
Cubs (52-41) at Reds (42-50): Three games
Red Sox (43-48) at Mets (40-54): Three games
A’s (41-52) at White Sox (47-45): Three games
Angels (37-57) at Twins (46-48): Three games
Atlanta (54-38) at Cardinals (48-44): Three games
Blue Jays (44-49) at Padres (46-47): Three games
Diamondbacks (46-47) at Dodgers (61-33): Three games
Rockies (38-57) at Giants (39-54): Four games *Giants won Thursday’s opener, 8-2.
