Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. That was the case for me as I went through the 15 series about to get underway. Well, 14 if you count the Twins and Royals, who technically got the weekend started on Thursday in Minnesota with the only four-game series on the schedule. KC won, 8-6.
My gut tells me the two AL East series will be the most interesting this weekend. The Yanks host the Red Sox, and Baltimore visits Toronto. Even though three of those four squads have losing records and aren’t in the playoff field today, all of them are within 3 ½ games of a postseason spot. That helps with the importance factor, and added with the division impact, that is why I have those two series as my No. 1 and No. 2 on the top five list this weekend.
The matchups ranked 3-5 involve clubs with winning records. Two of the series are between National League playoff contenders, while No. 5 is easily the best interleague battle on paper.
Let’s begin.
No. 1: Red Sox (26-35) at Yankees (37-25)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Maybe I have this series ranked too high. After all, Boston continues to play subpar baseball, especially at home. A place in Fenway Park where, not all that long ago, the Sox had a huge home advantage. It was a place visiting teams feared, and were often outperformed during Boston’s four World Series title runs this century.
But times have changed, and the Red Sox are only 1-8-1 in home series this year. I can’t believe I’m about to say this, but it’s probably a good thing that Boston doesn’t have to play at home this weekend against the Yankees. New York swept the Sox at Fenway in their first meeting of the year in April, and held the home club to three runs in that series. Boston has a respectable 16-14 record away from home and, believe it or not, ranks among MLB’s top 10 on the road in most major offensive categories (BA, SLG, OBP, OPS). At home, they rank in the bottom third in those same categories. So, I’ll say it again. It’s probably a good thing the struggling Sox, who are only 3 ½ games out of an AL wild card position, will be out of Fenway Park for this series and early next week versus the division-leading Rays.
As for the Yankees, I think every fan is holding their breath. After Thursday’s news about two-time reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge’s trip to the IL with a stress fracture in his rib, it sounds like New York will be without its star until sometime after the All-Star break in mid-July. And that’s assuming Judge recovers within the four-to-six-week timeframe many are predicting. If that’s the case, the Yanks still have the pieces to hang around in the AL East race with Tampa Bay (only a half-game back entering Friday), but this makes it a lot easier for squads like Boston to navigate through New York’s lineup.
This is a big series for the Red Sox. Even though they are in the weak American League, if they get swept this weekend before their meeting with Tampa Bay, I’ll have a difficult time believing in a squad with an MLB-worst 10-21 record at home.
Here are the expected pitching matchups:
Friday: BOS – Sonny Gray (10 GS, 6-1, 3.06 ERA) vs. NYY – Ryan Weathers (11 GS, 2-3, 3.52 ERA)
Saturday: BOS – Ranger Suarez (11 GS, 2-3, 3.38 ERA) vs. NYY – Will Warren (12 GS, 7-1, 3.22 ERA)
Sunday: BOS – Connelly Early (12 GS, 5-3, 3.26 ERA) vs. NYY – Cam Schlittler (13 GS, 7-3, 1.89 ERA)
No. 2: Orioles (30-33) at Blue Jays (30-33)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If you want to make the argument that a pair of teams with losing records in early June shouldn’t be ranked this high on the top five list, then no hard feelings on my end. I get it. However, it was one week ago today that I had these AL East clubs at No. 3 on my top-five list when they met for the first time in Baltimore. At that point, their combined records were worse than what you see above. Also, that series ended up being, arguably, the most exciting of the weekend. The first three matches were decided by one run in what ultimately was a 2-2 series split.
The Orioles enter this weekend on a nice run. After their rubber game victory over Boston on Thursday, they improved to 7-3 over their last 10 games, and haven’t dropped a series since they were swept in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Toronto salvaged the final game of three in Atlanta on Thursday with a 7-2 victory. It was the first series the Blue Jays have lost since dropping two of three contests at home three weeks ago to, who else, but the Tampa Bay Rays.
At eight games back of the Rays in the division, it doesn’t seem likely that Toronto or Baltimore has a realistic shot at catching both Tampa Bay and New York. Maybe, they’ll pass one of them in the standings, but both? I’m not seeing that. However, realistically, we could witness both of these clubs earn playoff berths. As it stands today, Baltimore and Toronto are a half-game behind the A’s for the final AL wild card spot.
This is a relatively important series for early June, and if it’s anything like we saw last week in Baltimore, fans are in for a treat.
No. 3: Reds (31-30) at Cardinals (32-28)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Maybe this whole NL Central dominance thing is getting lamer by the month. I’m not sure, but after writing this MLB Series Preview twice a week since late March, you’ll rarely find an article that doesn’t mention at least two of the five winning teams in this division. And when they go head-to-head, it’s almost preposterous to keep winning franchises from the same division off the top five list. How can I justify it unless there are five no-doubters ahead of them?
The problem with this series in particular is that even though St. Louis and Cincinnati have continued to post winning records, neither club is playing well. In fact, these are the only teams in the NL Central with negative run differentials for the year. The Cardinals have a -12 run differential. The Reds have the fourth-worst run differential in the majors at -41 and somehow enter this weekend only 1 ½ games out of a wild card spot.
Based on how these teams are playing, they probably shouldn’t earn a top-three spot on this list. St. Louis has a 3-7 record over their last 10 contests, and in those seven losses, they are averaging two runs per game. The Reds began June by dropping two of three home contests to the Kansas City Royals, the American League’s second-worst team by record. Cincy is 8-16 versus winning clubs, and quite honestly, they aren’t very good. With the recent loss of their shortstop, Elly De La Cruz (10-day IL with right hamstring strain), I don’t know how the Reds stay above .500.
After giving you all the reasons why this series shouldn’t be ranked high on the list, I’ll end with one reason why it still needs to be. As long as the NL Central continues to have five winning clubs, any divisional matchup between them will be difficult to lay off. I’m not a believer in either of these teams, and I think those run differential numbers I pointed out make my case. But they are still in the thick of the wild card and the NL Central discussion. St. Louis is five games behind Milwaukee in the division, while the Reds sit 6 ½ games back.
These clubs split their first series in Cincy last month, 1-1.
No. 4: Pirates (34-29) at Atlanta (42-21)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
One of the boldest and obviously dumbest statements I’ve made so far during my brief career on MLB Series Preview came on May 1. This was the Friday immediately following Pittsburgh getting swept at home by St. Louis in four games. At that time, the Buccos were 16-16, losers of five straight contests, and only 4 ½ games behind in the NL Central.
Here is part of what I said on May 1.
…my gut feeling is that the Pirates are about to take a turn for the worse. And this is coming from a guy who predicted the Pirates to win the NL Central on his own blog in the preseason.
Whoops. Since that time, Pittsburgh is 18-13 and currently holds the National League’s top wild card position. And all this while their ace Paul Skenes continues to pitch Un-Skenes like. Skenes is 6-5 over 13 starts with MLB’s 19th-ranked ERA at 3.09. It’s not bad, but if someone told me that Skenes would have five losses on June 5, but the Pirates would be five games over .500, and in the thick of a playoff race, I wouldn’t have believed it. My preseason pick was based on what I thought would be a weakish NL Central (wrong) and on Skenes’ numbers being similar to those of his first two big-league seasons (wrong so far).
So how is Pittsburgh doing this? It’s a great question. My feeling is that it’s because of the improved offense. Outfielder Oneil Cruz is better by leaps and bounds at the plate since posting last year’s pitiful .200/.298/.378 slash line. Cruz is hitting .269 with a near .350 OBP, and is only six homers and 17 ribbies away from last year’s totals of 20 homers and 61 RBI. He’s likely going to make the first All-Star game of his career on the assumption he doesn’t completely lose it at the dish, as he’s been known to do in the past. We’ve seen how bad his slumps can be, but right now, this is looking like the true breakout year for someone who has been built up as the potential franchise bat for the Pirates since he made his MLB debut in ’21.
As for the Pirates’ offense as a whole. It’s been good. The Buccos bats easily rank among the top five in MLB when judged strictly by batting average (3rd, .256), OBP (2nd, .339), and OPS (4th, .744). For as good as Pittsburgh has been, they will be facing an Atlanta offense that is just as potent, if not more so. Atlanta also ranks in the top five in batting average and OPS, and their +109 run differential blows away the Pirates’ +37 mark. With MLB’s best record at 42-21, Atlanta has only lost two series this season. These squads will meet again in early June at Pittsburgh.
No. 5: White Sox (33-29) at Phillies (33-29)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I won’t repeat what I said on Monday about Chicago’s brutal upcoming schedule, beginning tonight with Philadelphia, followed by three series against Atlanta, Los Angeles, and the Yankees. However, as I warned on Monday, I will mention that I felt the White Sox were in a near-must-win situation in Minnesota given what lay ahead. Chicago lost two of three contests to the struggling Twins, and now the real challenge begins.
The Phillies are rolling since Don Mattingly took over as manager in late April, and after sweeping their season series with the Padres this week, Philadelphia is now 21-10 since the start of May. The Phils are essentially in a four-way tie for the final two NL wild card spots, but with well over half the season remaining, it matters very little right now. What’s important is that they have turned their season around and look more like the World Series contenders many predicted before the ’26 campaign began.
Regardless of Chicago’s upcoming schedule, they are still 7-3 over their last 10 contests. The same can be said for the Phillies. This is a series that I cannot leave off the top five list.
Missed the Top Five
Giants (25-38) at Cubs (33-30): Three games
Mariners (33-30) at Tigers (25-38): Three games
Rays (36-23) at Marlins (29-34): Three games
A’s (30-32) at Astros (28-36): Three games
Guardians (36-28) at Rangers (30-32): Three games
Royals (25-38) at Twins (29-35): Four games *Royals won Thursday’s opener, 8-6.
Brewers (37-23) at Rockies (24-39): Three games
Nationals (31-32) at Diamondbacks (33-29): Three games
Mets (27-35) at Padres (32-29): Three games
Angels (24-39) at Dodgers (40-23): Three games
