With rosters mostly set and Spring Training in full force, it looks like the perfect time to size up how each division could fare in the upcoming season. Starting with last week’s look at the AL Central, we are using every Wednesday up to Opening Day to talk about the state of every team and division around MLB, using Steamer projections to give us an idea of how depth charts and competitive cycles are lining up in 2026.
Today, we turn to the NL Central, coming off its best showing in a decade, as three of its members made the playoffs. The 2026 season appears eager to produce many unpredictable outcomes, and this division is a perfect example of that. Projections are struggling to define what the Central can become this year, with the usually underrated Brewers set to take a massive dip, while you could make a case for anyone except the Cardinals having a chance to take home the title. It should be interesting, to make a massive understatement.
St. Louis Cardinals – 2025 Record: 78-84 – 2026 Projection: 75-87
Like an infamous scene in a famous 90s movie, the Cardinals have been stuck in the middle for a while now. What once was inconceivable for the proud franchise became reality, as St. Louis has been clearly unable to adapt to the times in many ways, including proper evaluation of their own talent or savvy moves to make up for it. Now three years removed from their most recent playoff appearance and fifteen years away from their last championship, ownership had no other choice but to clean house, and the 2025-26 offseason has served as the long-awaited stepping stone for a team that needed a reset.
The hiring of Chaim Bloom to take over baseball operations (which was bizarrely announced way before he actually took charge) speaks volumes about the new needs of this team, which are now more evident with the rest of the division in better competitive shape. Bloom may have had mixed results in his previous gig in Boston, but his acumen as a roster builder and resource optimizer gives him enough credit to try to turn the Cardinals around. Even as the fanbase may not be happy about the quickfire departures of Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras, they should be well-versed enough to understand why they had to happen.
It has been 1973 days since the St. Louis Cardinals last won a postseason game
— Cardinals Last Playoff Win Counter (@winlessSTL) February 24, 2026
The result of this exodus is that St. Louis has stockpiled on lottery tickets and young talent, as evidenced by their current projected lineup that features no player even sniffing thirty years old. Holdovers like Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker will get plenty of at-bats to prove they belong on this team for the long haul, while the rotation also boasts plenty of youth and growing pains. The potential early call-up of top prospect JJ Wetherholt offers a glimpse of how the Cardinals can have a quicker-than-expected return to respectability, even if 2026 features a bunch of shutouts and long days.
Cincinnati Reds – 2025 Record: 83-79 – 2026 Projection: 78-84
Following their first postseason berth – full season version – in twelve years, the Reds were pretty open about their desire to spend heading towards 2026. Their pursuit of Kyle Schwarber was serious enough to make the Phillies sweat a little, but it was all for naught, with Cincinnati having to pivot and instead sign a lesser brand-name slugger like Eugenio Suárez. While that saga was disappointing, it can still be considered a positive step for a franchise that has failed to be consistent and relevant for most of the past decade. Instead, the Reds enter this season with the floor of at least being enigmatic and the ceiling of a roster that can again vie for October.
Can confirm: Elly is jacked pic.twitter.com/E9wc9DAtI1
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) February 17, 2026
The Reds project to remain good-to-great in terms of pitching, with a rotation that could be ranked as the steadiest when it comes to comparing their ace to their #5 man. Health issues aside, counting on Hunter Greene to lead the way while Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns are there to round out the staff is a strength no other Central team has, while the bullpen can be considered solid, especially with manager Terry Francona still having his fastball. The biggest X factor for Cincinnati comes in terms of potential and the quest to fulfill it, which seems to be the yearly discussion around the likes of Elly de la Cruz and Matt McLain.
If the Reds can find a way to put it all together and avoid the month-to-month roller coaster it experienced last season, they have the tools to make some noise in the Wild Card race, and maybe even the division. It is important to remember that their trip to October, where they were humbled by the Dodgers, was mostly a product of the Mets collapsing. Elly is still developing at age 24, and Suarez could challenge 60 homers playing in the bandbox they call Great American Ballpark, but it will be a matter of putting it all together and finding a bit of good fortune.
Milwaukee Brewers – 2025 Record: 97-65 – 2026 Projection: 81-81
You have probably heard this before, but the projection systems do not expect great things from the Milwaukee Brewers. The fact that Steamer expects a .500 season from Milwaukee has caused a stir in some circles, but even the most optimistic system in ZiPS only sees the Brewers hovering around 85 victories. This comes despite the Brew Crew being the three-time defending champion of the NL Central, the literal best team in baseball with a 97-win season in 2025, and not even having a losing full campaign since 2016. It will again be a chance for Milwaukee to prove everybody wrong, even as they again consciously dealt away from failing to re-sign some of their top players.
The loss of Freddy Peralta a year before free agency is a huge blow for a rotation that at least has the phenom Jacob Misiorowski as its presumed new ace. Brandon Woodruff is still around and expected to be healthy, while Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick provide a Reds-type level of competency that is bound to make the Brewers competitive day in and day out. The bullpen is also a point of strength with Abner Uribe emerging as a frontline closer and Trevor Megill serving as a nice tandem at the back end of games. Manager Pat Murphy is coming off two straight NL Manager of the Year awards by maximizing the resources he has at hand, with the pitching staff looking full enough to continue this trend.
Good morning #Brewers fans.
Pat Murphy as Manager in Milwaukee
▫️2 Seasons
▫️2 NL Central Titles
▫️2 Manager of the Year Awards
▫️190-134 (.586) Record#ExtendPatMurphy. Get it trending. pic.twitter.com/VZ5Qeg3oyi— Pitchers⚾️ & Pitchers🍺 (@BrewersOfMKE) February 16, 2026
The potential downfall of the Brewers may come from an offense that vanished in the NLCS and appears virtually unchanged heading towards Opening Day. The high variance of young players like Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang may be as important as what team leader Christian Yelich can provide, and that could ultimately be the key for Milwaukee to stay toe to toe with the Cubs and other NL contenders. At this point, it seems foolish to bet against the Brewers, even if their formula just doesn’t translate to playoff success. If the Miz manages to conquer the proverbial sophomore slump and Chourio continues to blossom into a star, the 81-81 projection may end up becoming the worst hot take of the offseason.
Pittsburgh Piratess – 2025 Record: 71-91 – 2026 Projection: 82-80
It is incredibly hard to pair the words Pittsburgh Pirates and “exciting”, but it is safe to say that the Buccos have at least earned the title of intriguing for 2026, with a serious chance to become fun, exciting, and even competitive as the season progresses. The Pirates, of course, have still not earned the benefit of the doubt, and it is easy to be skeptical, but the front office has begun to operate with a bit of creativity within its self-imposed constraints to produce a roster that may give the Steel City its first playoff race in more than a decade.
Having the best pitcher in the league is a great starting point, but it becomes useless with an anemic offense that cannot provide him with leads. The Pirates addressed this obvious need by acquiring a few brand-name veterans who are almost certain to provide stability and better production. Marcell Ozuna and Brandon Lowe are bound to join Bryan Reynolds as the veteran leadership of the offense, while Ryan O’Hearn could become the best under-the-radar signing of the offseason. The toolsy Oneil Cruz is running out of time to become the franchise player he was expected to be, but he probably will benefit from having a more competent group around him.
Pirates fans right now:#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/uP20W6gsG4
— 1986-92 Pittsburgh Pirates (@1992Pirates) February 24, 2026
If Pittsburgh manages to score around 4 runs per game, we could suddenly see Paul Skenes challenge for 20 wins and the rest of the rotation not needing to be perfect just to scrape a few victories. With a solid bullpen and the eventual return of Jared Jones to the bump, the Pirates may become the feel-good story of the season, but it is clear they need to keep on being aggressive if they are contending around the trade deadline. If that means a quick promotion of uber prospect Konnor Griffin, so be it – Pittsburgh needs to take every chance as long as it employs Skenes. It is also important to note that Andrew McCutchen is still unsigned, and his potential return (even on a limited role) could be the final piece in terms of goodwill and fun this roster needs.
Chicago Cubs – 2025 Record: 92-70 – 2026 Projection: 85-77
The Chicago Cubs‘ transaction log this offseason reads almost like Homer Simpson’s enemy list in terms of volume and notoriety, which is something Cubs fans had been asking for since the team’s glory days in the mid-2010s. Following a couple of what-if seasons that left a sense of emptiness around the Friendly Confines, Chicago finally broke through and returned to the playoffs in 2025, finding the right mix of young stars and reinforcements to produce the franchise’s first 90-win season since 2017. The price that comes with that is having high expectations, and the front office has at least matched that enthusiasm with a slew of moves that have turned the Cubs into the favorite to win the NL Central.
Kyle Tucker was always a long shot to stay, but signing Alex Bregman to a long-term contract was a nice consolation prize for the Cubs, as they now project to have at least a league-average player at each defensive position. DH may be more of an experimental ground with youngster Moisés Ballesteros expected to take the full-time gig, but he could be easily complemented by many of the team’s veterans on minor spells. Chicago’s bench may be the only blemish on its depth chart, but its status as the frontrunner in this division may signal that it should be aggressive in trying to find in-season upgrades.
This video will make you want to find a time machine asap
Cubs baseball cannot come soon enough pic.twitter.com/tI76D2RlXN
— Just Another Year Chicago: Cubs (@JAYChi_Cubs) February 17, 2026
Even as Justin Steele’s status remains uncertain to return at any point in 2026, the Cubs appear to have enough arms in their staff to avoid any significant losing streaks. The addition via trade of Edward Cabrera serves as a solid one-two punch with Matthew Boyd atop the rotation, while Shota Imanaga will try to prove that he can produce closer to his rookie numbers than the up-and-down season he had last year. Overall, this is still a staff managed by Craig Counsell, which gives Chicago a high floor and a rightful status as the favorite to hover around 90 wins. With the team finally flexing its financial muscle, the Cubs are looking to return to NL Central prominence and deep playoff runs.
