Welcome to Week 24 of our Patience or Panic series!
CJ Abrams, 2B, Washington Nationals
Who is CJ Abrams? That’s an easy answer for the laymen and any search engine. Paul Christopher Abrams Jr. is a professional shortstop for the Washington Nationals. So, let’s refine our question: Who is CJ Abrams really? Existentially?
Well, Abrams was a former top prospect that the San Diego Padres shipped to Washington in exchange for Juan Soto. That was his first identity: Hope. Yet Abrams couldn’t create any swells, with fine numbers. That changed in the first half of the 2024 season, when Abrams hit .268 with an .831 OPS. He was named an All-Star. In that stint, Abrams seemed to cement himself. Except the opposite happened in the second half. Abrams had a .586 down the stretch, all but inviting more confusion about who he was and what he might be.
2025 saw Abrams even out between his two selves with a .748 OPS. And maybe this is who he was. But then came another metamorphosis in 2025. Through his first 93 games, he hit .275/.352/.510 with an .862 OPS and 132 wRC+. He was an All-Star again. His ceiling was reached at last. Finally, the real CJ Abrams had stood up, and he was glorious. Every bit worth the cost of Soto.
Or so it seemed. Again, Abrams’ true face is hidden behind a scramble suit. His identity is nothing but blurs and beautiful clashing colors. Heck, he’s not even a shortstop anymore. Nor is he much of a hitter. Over the last 30 games, say since August 12, Abrams is hitting .149/.245/.234, good enough for a .479 OPS and 33 wRC+. Only six other players have a worse wRC+ and OPS during that time. He has bottomed out. So, who is CJ Abrams? Is he a first-half merchant? A good player whose limitations have only been recently explained? Or is he something else?
The most notable change between the two Abrams is in his power. Pre-All-Star, he slugged .510. That was the 16th-best slugging percentage in all of baseball. Likewise, Abrams’ ISO was .235. That was the 23rd-best ISO in all of baseball. He also had 20 home runs, 17 doubles, and three triples. No matter how you cut it, Abrams was a premier power hitter. A near 20-20 hitter in under 100 games.
Lately, Abrams has been anything but. As stated, his slugging percentage since August 11 is .255. Only five players have a worse slugging percentage during that time. They are Ernie Clement, Isaac Collins, Jung Hoo Lee, Spencer Horwitz, and Dillon Dingler. Do any of those seem like the hitter Abrams presented himself as? Abrams’ ISO is much better, 28th-worst in baseball, but it’s still .092, 0.143 points worse. It’s no wonder then that Abrams has just one home run over the last month and change.
That needs to change. Though Abrams has a variety of tools, his power surge was integral to his new self.
Maybe more concerning than Abrams’ dampening is his general contact numbers. And no, we’re somehow not talking about his .163 batting average. During this should-be slump, Abrams has a .242 BABIP, 35th-worst in baseball. That’s about .60 points worse than his pre-All-Star BABIP. Far worse feeling than that, though, is Abrams’ .166 xBA. All of these struggles we’re discussing should be happening. He should be hitting like one of the worst players in professional baseball. There is no balm here. No gimme. Analytically, it’d be weirder if he was hitting.
Part of that, along with the lack of power, can be explained by Abrams’ newfound aggressiveness. High, perhaps on his strength, Abrams is far more chase-happy lately. His August 35.8% K Rate and September 29.2% K Rate are the two highest months of his season. Only June comes even close. He’s gone from a 21.5% K Rate in the first-half to a 33% K Rate since August 11. Likewise, his 38.6% Chase Rate in August and 37.4% Chase Rate thus far in September are the second-highest Chase Rates Abrams has had in a month this season. Little by little, he’s changed himself.
Interestingly, Abrams biggest change comes in the zone. His highest In-Zone Swing & Miss Rate was 19.4% in April. From there, it went down and down: 19% in May, 16.4% in June, 12.7% in July. If Abrams liked a pitch in the zone, he wasn’t missing. August, however, saw a spike to 24.3%, a little less than double July’s 12.7%. And so far, there’s only been a slight change in September at 20%. He’s off.
The Verdict: Who is the real Abrams? Who knows? But only you can decide if you want to be there when the answer comes. Caveat emptor.
Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta
When you think about modern-day Atlanta baseball, a few names come to mind: There’s Ronald Acuña Jr., with his flashy batting gear and chains. There’s Chris Sale and his stupendous stuff. There’s Spencer Strider’s stache. There’s Michael Harris II’s superheroic catches. There, at least, was Brian Snitker’s surly demeanor. And then, in the background, just hanging out despite his significance, is Matt Olson.
Olson is the steadying presence amidst all of Atlanta’s turnover. He’s taken Freddie Freeman’s place in every way: Always available, always dependable. He’s played 162 games every year since his arrival in 2022 and is on track to play another 162 this season. He’s played more games than anyone over the last six years. He’s 12th in OPS since then, 16th in baseball in wRC+, and 18th in fWAR. Few are better at what they do than Olson. Very few.
Such was again the case at the start of 2026. By the All-Star break, Olson was hitting .267/.339/.534. His 135 wRC+ led Atlanta. As did his .873 OPS. With Acuna injured and Drake Baldwin missing time earlier, Olson was the key instrument behind what was then the fourth-best and ninth-highest scoring team in baseball. He was to Atlanta what John Bonham’s drums were to Led Zeppelin.
But this song hasn’t remained the same. Not lately. Since August 11, Olson has hit .178/.240/.314 with a .554 OPS and 47 wRC+. It’s ironic. Atlanta is as healthy offensively as they’ve been all season. They’re in the division race with the Phillies and lead by just a few games. And it’s now that Olson’s changed his tune. How? Why?
Unlike Abrams before him, there is, and needs to be, some level of stated assurance. Olson is likely going to be fine in the long. His resume is too good, too consistent for his time to come all of a sudden. This isn’t the end. The expected numbers also point toward this. Where Abrams had no statistical backing, Olson does. He has a .243 xBA compared to his true .178 average; a .456 xSLG compared to his .314 slugging percentage; a .319 xWOBA compared to his .239 wOBA. Olson should be doing much better than he has. The levee hasn’t broken.
Still, something’s bear saying: Olson is chasing more. His 30.2% Chase Rate in August was higher than any other month this season, and his 31.1% Chase Rate in September is the highest of his season. Both contrast Olson’s 24.3% Chase Rate in July and, to some extent, June’s 27.8% Chase Rate. Likewise, he’s swinging at more pitches in the zone. His 71.2% August In-Zone Swing Rate was the highest of the season. Or at least, that was the case before September’s 71.8%. Olson is extending himself more, both in and out of the zone.
Pitches that are especially drawing Olson’s bat as of late are fastballs and offspeed pitches. His 48.9% Swing Rate on the former is the third-highest of any month this season. September is even higher, with Olson posting a 55.8% Swing Rate. This hasn’t translated, with Olson having a .226 and .129 batting average against fastballs in August and September. Olson’s seen somewhat similar growth and failure with offspeed pitches, hitting .267 in August and .200 in September.
This hasn’t cost Olson any strikeouts. He’s actually striking out less than he had before August 11. It is, however, costing him some walks. He has a 7.8% Walk Rate over the last month or so compared to his 8.3% Walk Rate Pre-All-Star.
One last note as we keep rambling on: Olson’s hitting far more to the opposite field than normal. When he’s going right, Olson is going the opposite way about a quarter of the time. See his career 25% Oppo Rate and his 24.7% Oppo Rate pre-All-Star. Over these last 30 days or so, he has a 30.2% Oppo Rate. That would be the highest of his career.
The Verdict: There’s been good and bad times this year for Olson. Bet that more good times are right around the corner. After all, there’s a reason he’s Mr. Consistency.
Royce Lewis, 1B, Minnesota Twins
A lone cowboy clad in red and blue stands in the street. Across from him is his foe: An ageless vaquero whose hair and beard are as silver as the revolver strapped to his hip. Both men eye each other. A colored cowboy knows this could be his last. His last moment, his last breath. He has fight enough left for it, but if he falters here, he’ll be finished. Done. Dusted. This cowboy, young of face, is Minnesota Twins infielder Royce Lewis. His opponent? Some combination of fate and Father Time.
Dramatic as it might sound, Royce Lewis is at an inflection point. A standoff. The former first-overall pick’s career has been fraught with difficulty. Those challenges are known to the laymen: Injuries. Lewis has torn his ACL twice, dealt with hamstring, quadriceps, and oblique strains. He’s been sidelined more than he’s been saddled. And over his last three seasons, Lewis, who once posted a .921 OPS in an injury-shortened 2023 season, has averaged a .699 OPS.
Lately, Lewis has been something worse than mediocre: Awful. Since August 11, Lewis is hitting .206/.246/.290 with a .535 OPS and 47 wRC+. He has just one home run, 11 RBIs, and is worth -0.4 fWAR. Only 12 other players have been less valuable in that span in all of baseball. Due to these weeks, Lewis is now hitting .231/.298/.393 with a .691 OPS. If Lewis finishes around that mark, it would hand him two straight .700 OPS seasons. We’re a long way from the 2023 playoffs.
Father Time now looks at Lewis from under the brim of its hat. It has a message, if not a final shot: Do or die. Lewis is facing the two biggest weeks of his professional career. If he turns it around, he might salvage a roster spot. If he doesn’t, if he plays like the player he has, he could go non-tendered in the offseason. In him, the Twins might only see his worst attributes: an injury-plagued slugger who hasn’t hit above .240 or for more than 20 home runs in three straight seasons. It’s now or never for Lewis. So, which might it be?
If you’d asked the Twins that question earlier in the season, the answer would be now. From June 6 to August 10, Lewis hit .277/.341/.500 with an .841 OPS and 132 wRC+. During that time, he led the Twins in fWAR, clocking in at 1.5. He had 10 home runs, 29 RBIs, 14 doubles, and eight steals over that 54-game stretch. His bat seemed more of a six-shooter. He seemed every bit the gunfighter of old. Moreover, he looked nothing like the hitter who started the season in need of a minor league demotion after hitting .163 in his first 31 games. What changed?
Aside from the obvious, Lewis isn’t making contact the way he did or how he needs to. During that hot stretch, Lewis had a 44.2% HardHit Rate. As of late, he has a 33.7% HardHit Rate. Most of this, admittedly, stems from August, when he had a 35% HardHit Rate. Likewise, Lewis hasn’t barreled balls the way he needs to. In June, Lewis had a 12.1% Barrel Rate and in July a 12.5% Barrel Rate. Put both months together, and Lewis’ 12.3% Barrel Rate was the 18th-best in the American League over this time. In August, Lewis had a 7.5% Barrel Rate, 4.8% worse.
Combined, it’s no wonder what happened to Lewis. A power-first desperado, he needs to make ideal contact. If he can’t hit balls at high velocities or barrel them, he won’t do much else. It explains his .394 August slugging percentage and his .125 ISO. Lewis can’t do anything if all he’s shooting are rubber bullets.
These concerns, though, can be eased. August was mostly an aberration in both regards. In September, Lewis is back up to a 44.8% HardHit Rate. His Barrel Rate is 13.8%, his highest Barrel Rate in a single month this season and his highest in a single month since June 2025.
And yet, results haven’t followed. Lewis is still hitting .225 this month. He has a .375 slugging percentage and a .150 ISO. Gunpowder’s back in the chambers, but the cylinder won’t click. Why? Partly because Lewis can’t hit four-seamers. It doesn’t matter what month you turn to. In this alone, Lewis is consistent. This season, Lewis is hitting .186 against fastballs with a .310 slugging percentage and a -9 run value. He does nothing with them.
The Verdict: Let Lewis go. Lewis isn’t the only one staring down the barrel of a gun. You are too… in fantasy baseball. He’s not the gunman you need. But keep an eye on him. See who shoots first: he or Father Time and Fate’s amalgamous being.
