People have come to expect great analysis and in-depth looks from the Pitcher List staff, and much of that research is regularly referenced in articles and podcasts on the site. It’s about time we created the Pitcher List Library to house every research article in one place. We’ll be maintaining this list of our groundbreaking content, in-depth dissections of the sport, and create a starting point for continuing research.
Welcome to the Pitcher List Library
Pitching
This is Pitcher List, so of course we’ll focus on pitching content first.
Pitcher List authors have looked at pitching statistics and said, “here, hold my rosin bag!” In addition to providing insight into current pitching statistics, we have developed our own metrics, built on the shoulders of the greats before us. We welcome others to expand and improve on our work.
(Called Strikes + Whiffs)/Total Pitches. It seems like such a simple formula that many people are kicking themselves for not thinking about it. As it turns out, a simple formula provides a number of useful insights:
- CSW Rate: An Intro to an Important New Metric – Alex Fast
- CSW+: The Next Step – Colin Charles
- CSW+: The Team Factor – Colin Charles
- wES Rate: Creating an Improved CSW Rate – Jordan White
PLV = Pitcher Level Value. This is a pitch quantifier, not unlike Eno Sarris’ Pitching+ and Cameron Grove’s Pitching Bot. In incredibly simple terms, we look at many granular variables of a pitch (release point, count, pitcher/batter handedness, velocity, movement, location, etc.), shove them into a machine-learning prediction model, and based on what we’ve seen, we can give an overall 0-10 score to say “this was a good pitch or a bad pitch.”
- What Is PLV? – An Introduction To Pitch Level Value And Its Applications – Nick Pollack
- Introducing PLV Mistake Rate – Kyle Bland
- What is Out% – Taylor Tarter
Pitcher evaluation obviously does not rely on CSW and PLV alone, and we have additional resources to help eye up a pitcher.
- Putting It All Together: Using speX as the Ultimate Pitching Estimator – Carlos Marcano and An In-season Update on speX – Carlos Marcano
- Using Pitch Acceleration to Predict Batted Ball Quality – Alex Isherwood
- Expected Run Value (xRV) 2.0 – Adding Deception – Luke Smailes
- Introducing Pitcher OppQual – Nick Gerli
- Explaining Pitcher List’s Player Card Grades – Kyle Bland
- Introducing Non-Competitive Rate: The New Old-School Eye Test Pitching Stat – Kyle Bland
- Introducing Str-ICR: A Simple Way To Look At Pitching – Kyle Bland
- Exploring Pitching Development’s Next Frontier – Alex Fast
In this section, we’ll look towards pitching research that is not statistically focused or demonstrates how to apply statistical analysis in the field. Warren Spahn said, “Hitting is timing, pitching is upsetting timing.” These articles explain the truth behind Spahn’s quote.
See the ball: You have to see it to hit it!
- A Closer Look at Pitch Tunneling – Luke Smailes
- Pitch Tunneling, the Next Step in Pitcher Evolution – Mike Anthony
- Does Messing With Timing Actually Work? – Zach Hayes
- Effective Velocity and Reaction Time – Michael Augustine
- Renaming the Rising Fastball – Mat Kovach
Pitch types and other planning tactics
- Sink or Spin: What Makes Sinkers Effective? – Natan Cristol-Deman
- We’ve Been Thinking About Breaking Balls Wrong – Ben Palmer
- Effective Sequential Pitching – Michael Augustine
- Count Data and Pitch Type Performance – Nick Gerli
- Introducing Optimal Location Ratios: A Primer – Daniel Port
- The Cut Fastball is Back in Style – Nate Schwartz
- Spin Doctors: A Look At The Most Versatile Pitcher Archetype – Jack Foley
Tools are only good if they are maintained, upgraded when needed, and the operator fully understands how to use the tool. The papers below bring a critical eye to additional fantasy pitching tools.
- Introducing Forecasted Run Average (FRA) – Dan Richards
- The Relative Value of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA Pt. I – Dan Richards and Part 2
- The Trouble With F-Strike – Alex Fast
- The Relationship Between Whiffs and Ks – Nick Gerli
- Understanding Perceived Velocity – Michael Augustine
- HardHit/9: Statcast’s Best Hard Contact Metric – Alexander Chase
- A Beginner’s Guide to Understanding Plate Discipline Metrics for Pitchers – Chaz Steinberg
- Understanding BABIP (multi-part series) – Carson Picard
Hitting
The villain in Spahn’s quotes, even in the worst of times, batters are going to put the ball in play in positive ways. The Pitcher List staff isn’t afraid to look at the offensive side of baseball and find better, smarter, and new ways to look at hitting and offense.
Before we can be practical, we have to be experimental. One of the biggest problems with offensive baseball statistics is that they can lack specifics. Pitcher List writers have been able to expand on offensive stats and give them some specifics.
- Beyond the Barrel: An Introduction to Ideal Contact Rate – Jon Metzelaar
- An Expansion on Ideal Contact Rate: Introducing IPA – Christian Mack
- Reintroducing pHR – Dan Richards
- Introducing HROpp% – Dan Richards
- Introducing Q – Carlos Marcano with An In-Season Update to Q – Carlos Marcano
- What is Process+? Pitcher List’s New All-Encompassing Hitting Stat – Nate Schwartz
All the stats in the world still need to be applied, examined, verified, and, if needed, dismissed. Not only have Pitcher List writers created stats, but they have also used them to examine the real world and run their fantasy teams. Not only will you be smarter after reading these articles, but you’ll also be on the way to improving your fantasy teams!
Understanding stats
- Happ-les to Oranges: How HardHit% Invites Bad Comparisons – Alexander Chase
- A Beginner’s Guide to Understanding Plate Discipline Metrics for Hitters – Dave Cherman
- Batted Ball Direction and Baseball Savant’s xStats – Nick Gerli
- The Real Value of Statcast Data Part I – Dan Richards
- Bat Speed and Contact Point are Inextricable From Each Other – Matthew Creally
- Ideal Plate Appearance – John Foley
- Do Barrels Without Consistent Hard Contact Hold Up? – Kyle McCarthy
Fantasy and stats
- An Exposition on BABIP – Dan Richards
- Quality of Contact, What is it Good for? – Dan Richards
- Using Plate Appearances to Decipher Hidden Value – Nick Gerli
- Barrels and Ballpark Factors – Dan Richards: Part 1 and Part 2
- What Barrels Tell Us About the Nuance of Park Factors – Alex Fast
- Dissecting the Infield Shift (Pt. 1) – Nick Gerli
- The Intentionality of Stealing Bases: Introducing SBoT – Austin Bristow II and an update: SBot Revisited
- Quantifying Stolen Base Intent – Adam Howe
- Should You Swing on 3-0? – James Schiano
Fantasy
Fine. Fine. Fine. Tell me all about baseball, but what about my fantasy team? How does this all help my fantasy game? I can’t lose to my boss AGAIN?!?
Stats for better fantasy drafts
- VPR: What Is It and Why Does It Matter? – Myles Nelson
- kWAR and gWAR Season Preview – Max Greenfield
- Everything Wrong With the ESPN Player Rater – Alexander Chase
Tips for better fantasy drafts
- Using MLB and NFBC Draft Histories To Make “Informed Mistakes” – Nate Handy
- Introducing Total Daily VORP: A Value System For Daily Lineups – Alexander Chase
- TDV 2.0: Total Daily Value 2.0 – Alexander Chase
- We Are Drafting Saves Wrong – Alex Fast and an update: We’re Drafting Saves Wrong Again
General Baseball Articles
- How Do You Objectively Measure a Trade? – Dylan Drummey
- An Introduction to Spending Optimization in Major League Baseball (multi-part series) – Dylan Drummey
- Baseball’s Pitcher Injury Epidemic Has No Implementable Fix – Lucas Seehafer
- Developing the Athlete: An Inside Look Into Player Development – Carson Picard
- Where does Lineup Strength Matter? – Nate Schwartz
- Baseball’s Offensive Environment is Changing in New Ways – Nate Schwartz
- What Kind of Team Wins in the Playoffs? – Matthew Creally
- New Norm for Free Agency? Short-Term High AAV and…Fair Value? – Will Orsland
Photo by Zaini Izzudin/Unsplash | Adapted by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
