With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings.
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 70-49
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s a small top tier for Tuesday with our SP #1 leading off in Max Scherzer against the Phillies. It’s just like he’s a part of Washington once again.
- I elected to push Sonny Gray to the second tier as he’s allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts. The talent is still there and if you have Sonny, you’re going to let him fly. He won’t be rocky like this through the final weeks of the season.
- Speaking of the second tier, I’m leading off with Carlos Carrasco, who will hopefully go at least five frames against the mediocre Nats lineup. His slider was phenomenal last time out and hopefully the changeup shows up in a big way.
- I’m still waiting for Zac Gallen to get his old changeup back, but I believe it will come over time. He heads to spacious Oracle Park (albeit against the Giants, of course) and I think he can get into the swing of things.
- How many innings is Casey Mize going to throw? Will they be of quality? I’m not the biggest believer in Mize’s arsenal, though a date with the Orioles should make managers lean toward giving him the green light.
- Aaron Nola and Jon Gray have a pair of tough matchups ahead and will make many managers question what to do. Both are volatile and are high risk/reward plays. Good luck.
- I was a little uneasy with Eduardo Rodriguez against the Rays, though his fastball command has been impressive and he can be a solid arm for squads. Let’s hope the changeup and cutter can push up their CSW marks.
- The streaming pick of the day is Daniel Lynch as he squares up against the Yankees. Lynch had his best slider of the year last time out and paired it well with four-seamer command up-and-inside to right-handers. If he brings that skillset for a second time, he will produce on the bump.
- It’s no fun seeing Luis Patiño this far down the ranks, but the Sawx are a terrifying offense and Patiño didn’t have his best stuff against the Mariners next time out. Be careful.
- Ross Stripling and Nestor Cortes are a pair of interesting options as well for Tuesday. Stripling had his changeup working last time out and could cruise to a Win against the Angels. Cortes has proven himself useful as a possible Toby for the Yankees and could come through against the Royals.
- In the bottom tier, Jake Odorizzi gets a lovely matchup against Rockie Road, but he wasn’t able to come through against the gifts of the Rangers and Mariners offenses. I question heavily if he can succeed here.
- Yes, the Mets are a poor offense as of late, but that doesn’t mean you can trust Paolo Espino to take full advantage.
- I’m super curious to see what we get from Aaron Ashby and Justin Steele as they make their starts on Tuesday. Both carry strikeout upside and may be pickups entering Wednesday. Let’s see what they’ve got before making the speculative adds, though, let alone starting them.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- We have a sizeable top tier with Frankie Montas surprisingly up at #4. It’s hard to deny him the spot as he’s been on an absolute tear and gets a cushy matchup against Cleveland. That splitter and slider have been locked in.
- I debated slotting Alek Manoah and Framber Valdez into the tier, and I figured their opponents aren’t intimidating and if you roster them, you’re starting them.
- In the second tier, I wouldn’t be excited about any of these starts but I’d lean starting them in each case. Wade Miley has been making a play for Spider-Man all year and could pull it off against a solid Atlanta crew while Joe Ross has been able to command the zone with sinkers and earn plenty of slider strikes.
- I heavily consider Tarik Skubal in the third tier as the Orioles perform well against southpaws + Skubal hasn’t had his slider nor changeup since the spring. The ceiling is worth the risk, though, as Skubal’s floor isn’t too murky.
- In the third tier, I’m leading with the biggest Vargas Rule out there in Cal Quantrill, fresh off a 20 whiff outing. I’ve heavily doubted his repertoire as dense enough to support legit success but after earning 10 whiffs on four-seamers last time out, he’s worth the shot against the Athletics.
- It was a disastrous outing in Coors on Friday for Sandy Alcantara and I can feel the anxiety of managers everywhere when they see the Padres next to his name. He has the stuff to survive, but I understand if you’d rather play it safe for one game.
- Merrill Kelly has been the most Toby of them all with an even 4.00 ERA on the season and his pedestrian six frames could return in spacious Oracle Park.
- The streaming pick of the day is Tyler Anderson as he gets a comfortable date with the Rangers. His four-seamer paired with a solid cutter and changeup allow him to accrue innings effectively, especially against a poor set of bats.
- I know Ryan Weathers against the Marlins seems like a complete slam dunk (15% rostership rate!), though Weathers has struggled in his last two games, tallying 14 ER total against…Rockie Road and the Diamondbacks. Even against a feeble Martlins team, this isn’t a lock.
- And sure, Rich Hill could go five frames against a mediocre Nationals crew to make your faith worthwhile. The ceiling is capped around six frames, though, if not five.
- In the final tier, I wouldn’t trust Kyle Gibson against the Dodgers as he doesn’t appear out of the woods from his horrid July. The ceiling is low and L.A. knows how to make a pitcher’s night miserable.
- The upside of Touki Toussaint is fun, facing the powerful Reds offense is not. Take this one off.
- I don’t expect many innings from Spencer Howard in this one, making a decent matchup in Seattle turn into an outing undeserving of your attention.
- And hey, maybe Wil Crowe can earn whiffs on both his changeup and slider to follow “The Cardinal Rule”, but it’s not a risk worth taking.
Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)