With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 70-49
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- We only have five games on Monday but we have our fair share of aces. Luis Castillo gets the top slot as he just earned his AGA label and has a date with Cleveland. Expect dominance.
- The same goes for Joe Musgrove, though I’m not sure about Freddy Peralta and Lucas Giolito. For Peralta, I’m only concerned about how deep into the game he’ll go, while Giolito has been a bit shaky as of late – he didn’t have his slider nor changeup in his last outing. Hopefully they both return.
- The second tier is a short one with Jameson Taillon taking the sole label. He’s arguably a Tier 1 play against the Royals, but that’s rooted in his curveball acting the same as it did in his last start. It was the best we’ve seen of the hook and he’ll have to replicate it if he’s searching for a top tier spot.
- Alec Mills leads the third tier and is our streaming pick of the day. I’m not a fan of Mills and his heavy potential for a Grave Mistake, but the Brewers aren’t terrifying and this one could return 5+ frames of production.
- I’m not as excited about Zach Thompson as we were a month ago and the Padres can put up a crooked number easily. Be careful here.
- In the final tier, we have Carlos Hernández, who has yet to be confirmed but could start Monday against the Yankees. There’s a touch of upside always present, but the floor is awfully low and has me tip-toeing around it whenever possible.
- The last two are Charlie Barnes and Logan Allen, who don’t bring enough to the table to be trusted on your squads. Cool to see Allen back in action, though!
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s a small top tier for Tuesday with our SP #1 leading off in Max Scherzer against the Phillies. It’s just like he’s a part of Washington once again.
- I elected to push Sonny Gray to the second tier as he’s allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts. The talent is still there and if you have Sonny, you’re going to let him fly. He won’t be rocky like this through the final weeks of the season.
- Speaking of the second tier, I’m leading off with Carlos Carrasco, who will hopefully go at least five frames against the mediocre Nats lineup. His slider was phenomenal last time out and hopefully the changeup shows up in a big way.
- I’m still waiting for Zac Gallen to get his old changeup back, but I believe it will come over time. He heads to spacious Oracle Park (albeit against the Giants, of course) and I think he can get into the swing of things.
- How many innings is Casey Mize going to throw? Will they be of quality? I’m not the biggest believer in Mize’s arsenal, though a date with the Orioles should make managers lean toward giving him the green light.
- Aaron Nola and Jon Gray have a pair of tough matchups ahead and will make many managers question what to do. Both are volatile and are high risk/reward plays. Good luck.
- I was a little uneasy with Eduardo Rodriguez against the Rays, though his fastball command has been impressive and he can be a solid arm for squads. Let’s hope the changeup and cutter can push up their CSW marks.
- The streaming pick of the day is Daniel Lynch as he squares up against the Yankees. Lynch had his best slider of the year last time out and paired it well with four-seamer command up-and-inside to right-handers. If he brings that skillset for a second time, he will produce on the bump.
- It’s no fun seeing Luis Patiño this far down the ranks, but the Sawx are a terrifying offense and Patiño didn’t have his best stuff against the Mariners next time out. Be careful.
- Ross Stripling and Nestor Cortes are a pair of interesting options as well for Tuesday. Stripling had his changeup working last time out and could cruise to a Win against the Angels. Cortes has proven himself useful as a possible Toby for the Yankees and could come through against the Royals.
- In the bottom tier, Jake Odorizzi gets a lovely matchup against Rockie Road, but he wasn’t able to come through against the gifts of the Rangers and Mariners offenses. I question heavily if he can succeed here.
- Yes, the Mets are a poor offense as of late, but that doesn’t mean you can trust Paolo Espino to take full advantage.
- I’m super curious to see what we get from Aaron Ashby and Justin Steele as they make their starts on Tuesday. Both carry strikeout upside and may be pickups entering Wednesday. Let’s see what they’ve got before making the speculative adds, though, let alone starting them.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)