Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs DET (ND) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 61 pitches.
It was hard not to get enveloped by Roki Sasaki hype after he signed with the Dodgers, though his spring performances mixed with a debut in Japan induced anxiety entering the season. Unfortunately, Saturday’s 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 61 pitches against the Tigers only amplified those concerns.
Sasaki has three major problems. First and not entirely apparent here: He’ll be babied by the Dodgers to ensure he’s healthy for the post-season. Skipped starts, shorter outings, etc. Managers are destined to rub their temples at times this year.
More importantly is what we saw last night. His heater’s velocity took a step down from the 98 mph of the Japan series (unsurprisingly) to 96 mph, and despite its 7.1 feet of extension, his inability to locate it effectively, merged with average HAVAA and terrible vert, grants a low whiff chance. 2/33 whiffs on the pitch yesterday aligns with what we’ve seen.
The other issue that catalyzes Sasaki’s four-seamer problems is his lack of support. The splitter is great and will be better than yesterday’s 27% strike rate. This was an exception, though it isn’t supposed to be a 60% strike pitch. Comparing other fastball/splitter arms we’ve seen come over from Japan: Tanaka had his slider; Senga uses a cutter; Yamamoto has a big curve and a new cutter; Ohtani features a sweeper; Dice-K had five additional offerings; and Darvish has ten other pitches (and counting). Sasaki…has a terrible slider he wastes often and can’t earn strikes regularly.
I’m not saying he won’t figure this out. Maybe he picks up a cutter from Yamamoto or a better slider from Glasnow. Maybe he leans into a sinker to take advantage of his extension. Something needs to show up to help bridge from four-seamer to splitter and until then, you’ll see splitter whiffs and four-seamer blasts as batters will eye four-seamers with every pitch. I’m hoping we see it soon.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
José Soriano (LAA) @ CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 73 pitches.
Nick! He’s incredible! Nah, he faced the White Sox and was able to throw a ton of strikes. Then again, when Soriano does feature 60%+ strikes on both curves and sinkers, he has a decent chance of returning efficient innings. Like Freeland the day prior, he could have returned a Maddux, and I’m sad he didn’t get the chance…even if it’s his first start and they are being cautious. He’ll get the Guardians next and if he’s still doing down-and-away sinker, it can work, though there’s a smaller margin of error than jamming inside. He’s a Toby.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
WELL NOW. That’s a Gold Star for Vásquez, who managed to keep Atlanta off the board despite none of his pitches eclipsing a 57% strike rate. It was a kitchen-sink approach with five pitches thrown at least 10 times and I love the lean into cutters inside to LHB with the occasional inside sinker to RHB. Sadly, when a pitcher’s walks equal their whiffs, you know Koufax was heavily involved.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
Mr. Crescendo featured six pitches in this one. Can you guess which one had the most whiffs? Not the splitter, four-seamer, slider, curve, or cutter. The sinker. All against RHB, the pitch returned 5/13 whiffs, making up for the fact that his slider and curve command were terrible. So many mistakes over the plate and I’d even say he didn’t have the best cutter or four-seamer, either. Thank you splitter for cleaning up many at-bats, and thank you Schwelly for returning such a good line despite being far from your best self. I love this kid.
Jonathan Cannon (CHW) vs LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
He threw strikes with heaters and cutters, not so much with changeups, and the Angels aren’t a great offense. I wouldn’t read into this one.
Antonio Senzatela (COL) @ TBR (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 78 pitches.
Hahahahahahaha. Awesome.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
IM AN AGA. Probably. He needs to earn the tag again entering this year and quell our concerns about his good fortune last year and not allow all the HRs. But to see him at 92 mph with the same 18/19″ of vert from last year is awesome. Hilarious that the four-seamer is still under a 10% SwStr, though. Whatever, his splitter/heater vs. RHB and sweeper/heater vs. LHB is the same delicious recipe from 2024.
Zack Littell (TBR) vs COL (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
I think we can all agree that Rockie Road is already in play, though credit where credit is due. Littell went Dancing With The Disco to RHB and did a marvelous job avoiding the heart of the plate to LHB with sinkers/sliders up and splitters down, and none of his five pitches held a strike rate under 64%. You still gotta get the job done against the weak teams. Sure, it’s possible Littell has the same run as he did this time last year, and if you really believe that, go start him against the Rangers. Sure, you do you. I’m not going near that.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.
Hmmmm. This wasn’t the best I’ve seen from Arrighetti, though I love the heavy four-seamer and cutter in the zone to embrace his 7.2 feet of extension. Just gotta pair them a little better and nail the curve and sweeper to do better than 4/30 whiffs moving forward and BLAMO! That’s a legit arm. But this was a great outing! Sure, but he went 44% strikes on both his change and curve, and just 50% on sweepers. This was a game of “do something with the four-seamer and cutter,” and the Mets failed. The Pasta Pirate was closer to a rough one than it looks.
Erick Fedde (STL) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 73 pitches.
He’s completely moved on from the four-seamer (sweet!) and went two-pitch against LHB (cutter + change) with went three-pitch against RHB (sinker + cutter + sweeper). That’s cool with me, the stuff is awfully pedestrian, though, and the game plan to RHB is to sit away as much as possible. Not sure if that can stick – batters should lean out over the plate a ton – and hopefully we see the sinker adapt when needed to go armside when the time comes. This could be another Toby worthy season.
Osvaldo Bido (OAK) @ SEA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
I know I said this could work if he throws strikes, but then again, it’s Seattle and it worked anyway. Be careful leaning too hard into Bido with his 54% strike rate on the four-seamer. Those walks will be here all season.
Joe Ryan (MIN) @ STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.
The heater’s velocity was 92.8 mph (-1.2 mph), which is certainly better than the 91 mph we saw during that terrifying spring start, but still not peak Ryan. The splitter and sinker struggled to support his arsenal as well, with the sweeper appearing just five times despite facing plenty of RHB. In short, not the best look for Ryan. I think most starters are not going to be at their best in their first or second starts, so let’s give Ryan and friends a bit of slack, skills-wise, of course. We’ll take this line all day.
Valente Bellozo (MIA) vs PIT (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 71 pitches.
If you told me Bellozo had a decent start, this is exactly what I would have predicted. Yes, decent is slightly better than a 1.50 WHIP. This is not your guy.
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs BOS (ND) – 1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 61 pitches.
H’ok. So. The four-seamer was at 93 mph. That’s Good! He missed too far up or out a lot, while the splitter and slider were far from reliable. Nothing had a strike rate above 54%. That’s bad. I’m not classifying this as a “Yeah, Mahle is cooked. Lost season.” start. Just a dude who was a little off and couldn’t recover. It happens, it’s early, and he could still be a worthwhile streamer against the Rays.
Bailey Falter (PIT) @ MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Blame it on the Marlins. I think Falter really likes it in Florida. JUST SAYING. The slider is still poor and the curve is either great or terrible, but the extension is still there and he’s added a little more velo (92/93 mph instead of hovering 92 mph). One day he’ll figure out a changeup and thrive. One day.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 86 pitches.
Good ratios from Lodolo in a Quality Start and Win with just one strikeout?! HAISTBMBWT?! This is what you want from Carson Spiers, not Lodolo, but I guess we’ll take it. I imagine the first pitch you think of when imagining Lodolo is his curveball, though with a RHB-heavy lineup, he threw it just 14 times, leaning fastballs 65% of the time and changeups heavily for 19% CSW, but lots of weak contact. So here’s the deal. The changeup was great at getting outs, but without many LHB, Lodolo went the outs route instead of nailing the curve for the strikeouts route. Honestly, I’m cool with this. I imagine there will be a balance over time and if he’s not hurting our ratios and can create that foundation to get more strikeouts, that’s awesome. The Giants aren’t a good offense. Okay, maybe that’s the actual conversation here. FINE. We’re still cooking against the Brewers.
Griffin Canning (NYM) @ HOU (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
You know, this is a great outing from Canning given his opponent. He expanded to throw two cutters and two sinkers, but in reality just went Dancing With The Disco for 54% sliders and he located them well enough that the Astros couldn’t punish the rare four-seamer in the zone. I get the sense that this is close to Canning’s peak against a RHB-heavy lineup (not enough LHB to get a full dosage of changeups) and you have to ask yourself if the ceiling is worth jumping for.
Jake Irvin (WSN) vs PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Jake’s prosperity in 2024 relied on the curve, and the hook came through with 77% strikes, though the changeup was the real winner today. Its usage jumped from 4% last year to 25% in this one (35% against LHB!) with a 71% strike rate (1/21 whiffs is a little sketchy), and I think its success was a product of shock from batters. They didn’t expect this and Irvin was able to be a bit pickier with his heaters. He still allowed nine baserunners in five frames. Very true. I wonder how this plays out – if Irvin has a legit change and curve to go with his seven feet of extension, he could have another Vargas Rule run.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 95 pitches.
We targeted Luzardo for the opening weekend and BAM, that’s a Golden Goal out of the gate. 12 whiffs on sweepers and sliders combined (sweeper for LHB, mostly, gyro for RHB down-and-in), while the changeup was featured 24% of the time to RHB and four-seamers were…good enough. He’s the ultimate HIPSTER. You’re going to hold him for games like these, but you remember those spring games. You know the blowups. They will come. Up to you if you want to hold through it when they arrive. He gets the Dodgers next. SO IT BEGINS.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 74 pitches.
He threw the cutter, right? Uhhhh. GAVIN. YOU PROMISED. His heater sat 97/98 and that’s cool, though he was at just 6.8 feet of extension with poor vert and HAVAA and no wonder he earned just 4/46 whiffs. The slider came in at 87.2 mph and induced plenty of frustration at just 5/11 strikes, and the curve helped as much as it could. That sounds horrible and to see a neutral outing is a positive, though I feel weird promising it’ll get better. You’re okay Gavin, right? The extension will return, yeah? Sliders and cutters will be there for strikes? PLEASE?!
Justin Verlander (SFG) @ CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.
Yep, that’s the Toby we expect Verlander to be. For those who expected more of a decline, his 94 mph velocity matches last season, even if there’s an inch less vert on the heater. And seven inches less drop on the curve (but 1.6 ticks harder). His slider also jumped up in velocity with 1.5 ticks to 88.2 mph, with 2/10 whiffs and boy do I hope that pitch can become a consistent putaway offering again. Maybe that strikeout per inning is real…Nah.
Max Fried (NYY) vs MIL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
The tradition lives on. Fried had the greatest cushion to cruise for a Win and between questionable command, a low strike rate, and even his own failure in the field, Fried just couldn’t get one more out to seal a Win. This happens every year – the first few outings are Fried’s worst, and then he gets into the AGA groove we know and love. The silver lining is to see him toss over 90 pitches already, making him primed for Quality Starts more than most. I should also note that Carlos Carrasco came in relief in this one and it likely spells the Yankees pushing Carlos Rodón and Fried a day earlier next week, with Carrasco following (or Stroman then Carrasco). They had a day off Friday and another on Monday, making this four days rest for each. Just a heads up.
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs BAL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 45 pitches.
Max left this one early and will hit the IL with the thumb injury that set him back in the spring. Sigh. At the very least, Scherzer’s April schedule was rough and if this means he hits the wire and stays there until the Jays face weaker teams, we now have a chance to grab some value from Scherzer down the road. Silver linings, y’all.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs CHC (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 78 pitches.
I’ll take a PQS from Pfaadt on all days the sun rises. So not in Alaska during the winter. Sounds right to me. I’ve attacked too many keys outlining my Pfaadt concerns, but at least he went 3/9 whiffs to LHB with his new 83/84 mph curveball (20% usage). That could be a solution to the “how will you deal with LHB?” problem and I’m curious to watch more. I’m guessing it isn’t.
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs OAK (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
Miller, you were at home. Aren’t you the Cy Young of home starts? This was a super interesting outing in the lore of Br. Miller. As a guy known for “super dope four-seamer, what else?” Miller threw just 23% four-seamers. He favored sinkers heavily to RHB (41% of the time!) and didn’t quite get it inside enough. I love that he’s throwing sinkers, but it’s supposed to go four-seamer, four-seamer, SURPRISE SINKER. Not the other way around. But what about LHB? Well that’s cool, too. He went heavy on the curveball, a pitch that had promise last year but disappeared randomly. However, 6/19 whiffs here at 36% usage to LHB is super cool and I hope this becomes a real thing. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the only tweak is for Bryce to throw more four-seamers. Weird, eh?
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
Blegh. Lugo is at his best when dealing against RHB and he threw five pitches against right-handers. That meant nibbling with cutters and four-seamers more than usual and hoping to generate outs on surprise changeups, curves, splitters, sinkers, etc. Not his best, but at least it wasn’t horrific. We move on.
Reese Olson (DET) @ LAD (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
Yeaaah. I like Olson at the back end of your 12-teamer for most of the year, but I avoided him in drafts since I really didn’t want this outing. At least you have the White Sox next and his velocity is still sitting up a tick at 95 mph like we saw in the spring. Can you please try to go inside with your sinker, though? It’s much better over there. Oh, and stop throwing 24% four-seamers to LHB. It’s really bad.
Walker Buehler (BOS) @ TEX (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.
Sigh. When Eno tells you on The Craft that a pitcher’s stuff is an atrocity during the spring, we should listen to him. I dug the sweeper down-and-away to RHB, but everything else was all over the place. Cutters down the pipe, four-seamers not knowing where they’re going, and velocity at just 93 mph (-2.1 mph). Womp womp. I think you should move on and chase other flyers. This can turn around over time, but it’s unlikely to be his next outing. Or the one after…
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ TOR (W) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 81 pitches.
We saw a harder curve with less break at 10/11 strikes and that’s a cool thing, but the four-seamer was demolished by the Jays with some hanging cutters, too. He’s a 15-teamer upside play and one to avoid in 12-teamers.
Nestor Cortes (MIL) @ NYY (L) – 2.0 IP, 8 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 64 pitches.
Oh my. If you haven’t heard, the Yankees hit each of the first three pitches out of the yard. Three HRs, three pitches. No, their bats aren’t illegal. No, Cortes isn’t cooked. His velocity is down to 90.5 mph (-1.5 mph), the changeup wasn’t good, and yeah, this wasn’t the Cortes we wanted to see. That said, the plan wasn’t to draft him and start here, so let’s sit back, see how his next start goes, and take it from there.
Game of the Day
Richard Fitts vs. Jacob deGrom – The best pitcher on the planet has returned and we get a legit look at Fitts? YES. Also, we get a glorious camera angle in Cincy for Ray’s new changeup. WHAT A DAY.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
