Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Treasure in the Paddack

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Chris Paddack (MIN) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.

After returning to the majors for a brief stint in the bullpen last season, Chris Paddack was a name to follow this off-season as a potential rotation piece for the Twins. However, his lack of growth across his arsenal prevented him from climbing onto draft boards and rightfully so – Paddack’s 2024 has come with a 8.36 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, and an atrocious 13% strikeout rate…until tonight.

You see, the White Sox CrySox are a gift to starting pitchers this season. Throw away your fears of a middling fastball and inconsistent changeup, Chicago is here to inflate that ego to an unsustainable level. Oh come on how good could it have been. Uhhhh, Paddack went 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches with an easy Win. Oh dang. Yuuuup.

Look, not every pitcher is an auto-stream against the CrySox, as you need to have a decent fastball and secondary offering to take full advantage. Other squads look at Paddacks’ 94 mph heater and sub 60% strike rate split-change and would feast, but Chicago? WE GOT YOU, SHERIFF. Paddack is set to face the Angels later this week and to be brutally honest, I’m not sure I’d want to do that, even after this display. Even as one of the bottom tier offenses, the Angels can give Paddack a much harder time than what we saw tonight, even if Paddack did have some solid fastball/changeup pitch separation. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and recognize the nuance.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:

 

Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs OAK (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.

Hey, do you know what to do with Rodón? Uhhhh, no? Dang. I was hoping for some help. You see, Rodón was just 94 mph here with only two whiffs on his secondaries and I can feel the delicate ice under my feet, ready to give way to the chilling depths. Or maybe he’s just a Toby and we call it day?

Ranger Suárez (PHI) @ CIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.

I haven’t ranked Suárez favorably on The List and for obvious reasons – his last three games were against some of the cushiest offenses around and he’s sitting just 91 mph these days. And yet, here’s his first challenge since his opening start and he not only dominated, but did so with glorious pitch separation. The man was cooking and I can’t deny him another start. Get some coal in the engine boys, we’ve got a Vargas Rule pulling out of the station.

Bryce Elder (ATL) vs MIA (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.

Ah, so it is gonna be like that. Guess we’re back to the ole Elder Vargas Rule…or was this a Blame it on the Marlins? Yeah, probably the latter. The Guardians coming up next would have punished a ton of these changeups and fastballs – I’d be cautious starting Elder against them.

Tarik Skubal (DET) @ TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 86 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Four-seamer is back to 97 mph (but just 2/23 whiffs…) and still getting trumped by his sinker, which dominated for 38% CSW. His incredible changeup was more of the same at 40% CSW, both the curve and slider helped, and he did what he should against the Rays. So why do I still feel weirded out that the heater isn’t getting whiffs anymore? He should be completely fine against the Royals next time, right? Is it Ragans. Naaah, I wish. That would have been so fun.

JP Sears (OAK) @ NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.

Oh Sears, why are you so Cherry Bomb? Even in this one, I still can’t get behind it given your inability to control your changeup (8/17 strikes). He prevailed here nonetheless with a rare ability to locate his four-seamer upstairs, merged with sinkers effectively inside the zone to LHB and sweepers earning all the strikes once again. So we’re picking him up? With the Orioles next? Not a chance. H*ck, even if it were the Tigers, I’d still question whether he could repeat it.

Albert Suárez (BAL) @ LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.

You want the good news or bad news? The good! His changeup was dope at 41% CSW, his four-seamer held a 16% SwStr rate, and his cutter helped plenty at 71% strikes. Ummm, what’s the bad. This was the Angels, Suárez’s four-seamer missed high out of the zone a ton, and he sat just 94 mph after going 96/97 mph last time out. IT’S JUST LIKE SPRING TRAINING. Yuuuup. I’d normally be scared, but he gets the Athletics next and you’d think he could snag another Win there. I’d chance it and hope the heater can get back on track.

Dylan Cease (SDP) @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.

Savant is officially recognizing the cutter (Thanks Fast!), which was pretty terrible in this one at just 2/7 strikes (lol). Everything else was standard affair for Cease with sliders middle/down and fastballs middle/up, each returning high CSW marks and I’m pleasantly surprised that the curve showed up to help in its own small way. More interesting, though, is Cease’s new sweeper, which went 5/5 strikes (GASP!), though none of those strikes were close to the other as he made a near big-dipper with the pitches around the zone. Anyway, this was a standard Cease start with the whole Blame it on the Rockies mixed in, yes, even in Coors. It’s a rough year.

Keaton Winn (SFG) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.

Hey, this was awesome! The best version of Winn I’ve seen as he went full BSB, nailing low splitters while keeping his heaters upstairs. If I believed Winn could always do this, I’d be very much in for his start against the Pirates. You don’t, do you. Yeah not really. But hey, at least he’s a Questionable Start against the Pirates now. That’s something, right?

Jared Jones (PIT) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 25 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 91 pitches.

He’s so good. Can I please give him AGA yet? I know, just five starts, but we know it to be true. That’s a Golden Goal as he’s tallied just under 100 whiffs in his first five starts combined. WHAT.  There’s not much else to say but he’s Strider on a worse team.

Joe Ross (MIL) @ PIT (L) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 79 pitches.

For all the (deserved) attention Jones is getting, Ross quietly had himself a great outing, especially considering he allowed a solo shot to the first batter he faced. Sliders were down, heaters were up, and those taking a stab at a two-step were unsatisfied to leave without a Win. I’m not interested in going after this against the Yankees, but crazier things have happened. It’s a solid sinker/slider combo.

Austin Gomber (COL) vs SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.

COL story, bro. Actually, 1 ER is a highlight for Gomber, so let’s be happy for the fella. Nice job keeping the curve and changeup down. The slider can go sit in the corner and think about what it did.

Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) @ KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.

Solid stuff from Kikuchi on a day when he didn’t have his best slider (0/12 CSW!). He’s actually elevating four-seamers these days, though, and guess what! A 16% SwStr on 43 thrown! ItsHappening.gif. And to celebrate, of course he has his biggest challenge yet – the Dodgers. OH COME ON. Even with that heater, I’m scared of that one.

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ STL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.

Sure, that’s fine. You’re a Toby, after all, and to expect more is the life of a spoiled manager. AND WE AIN’T THAT ARE WE. Jeez, no need to be so aggressive. Like you when you drafted Pfaadt in the 15th round? Touché.

Ryan Weathers (MIA) @ ATL (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 96 pitches.

Yes, it was Atlanta, but Weathers also didn’t have the same strength of repertoire we saw in his previous outing. Just 4/49 whiffs from his changeup + sweeper tell the story of only one strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) along with some pretty bleeeegh command. I guess we’re safe against the Nationals next, but hot dang, we need some better Weathers.

Lance Lynn (STL) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.

You have him for potential strikeouts no matter the cost. It’s kinda nice when things are exactly as you expect.

Hunter Greene (CIN) vs PHI (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.

Greene allowed a single run in four straight frames as managers continuously bargained in hopes of salvaging this one. At least he went seven frames? Most of the damage was done on ym-Loc pitches (More at Eleven) and it’s a constant struggle to determine whether Greene is worth your 12-teamer roster spot or not. Ahhh, classic HIPSTER.

Reid Detmers (LAA) vs BAL (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.

Yikes. Yes, the Orioles n all, but the command was once again shaky as anything. The slider landed middle-middle often and he avoided the edges like the plague. Which plague? Does it matter…? Sidenote: Detmers labored to give y’all a VPQS before being left in for the seventh and getting it tripped away from needy managers. I feel for y’all. The Twins are up next and while I’m concerned about Detmers’ precision, we’re likely gonna give that a try before moving on.

Zack Littell (TBR) vs DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 86 pitches.

Littell made several mistakes over the plate and look at that: the Tigers actually took advantage! Welp, the ability to earn whiffs is still there (thanks splitter!) and the CrySox are next. You’ll be fine.

Brady Singer (KCR) vs TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 107 pitches.

Sure, he threw sixteen four-seamers, but they weren’t good (50% strikes) and he’s pretty much the same sinker/slider guy. It wasn’t meant to be.

Jose Quintana (NYM) @ SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.

Awwwww. This was supposed to be a decent stream against a blegh Giants squad, but instead they looked Quintana dead in the eye and said WHO’S BLEGH NOW?! And there was Quintana, wondering what the h*ck they were yelling about. I’m not the one who called you blegh. Oh dear, what have I done. I’ve turned the Giants into Wendelstedt.

Jonathan Cannon (CHW) @ MIN (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 75 pitches.

Welp, take my sneaky suggestion and just fire it out of a…musket? Revolver? Blaster McBlaster? I dunno, fire it out of something with poorly spotted cutters. That’ll do the trick.

 

Game of the Day

 

Trevor Rogers vs. Max Fried – I want to see peak Fried, and Rogers went BSB last time so I hope he can replicate it, even if it is Atlanta.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)