Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 87 pitches.
It hasn’t been the easiest time rostering Ryan Pepiot this season and getting a VPQS against the Astros doesn’t help a whole lot: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 87 pitches (ND). In fact, this gave you nothing in your standard leagues. And we need to talk about it.
First and foremost, Pepiot allowed a solo shot on a not-so-bad changeup away, then two runs came after he “walked” the third out on a 3-2 strike low and middle, followed by a bloop single to knock in the final one. It didn’t feel justified.
However, he was Singled Out with plenty of loud contact across this one. His changeup had rare moments (sup Altuve) but wasn’t the miracle pitch he needed and the slider wasn’t doing the Filthy McGee impression we want it to do. Man, it always works at parties. The real problem here was a conspicuously hittable four-seamer. Just 2/38 whiffs without good locations upstairs failed to set the tone and it’s hard to not be a bit worried.
I’ve loved Pepiot for a simple reason: great four-seamer foundation + two whiff-heavy secondaries he can throw for strikes. Sadly, instead of taking small steps forward with these offerings, we’ve gone in the opposite direction, making me throw my hands up in frustration. When is the slider going to stick down-and-away? Can the four-seamer be an elite hiLoc% heater? Will the changeup actually become a right-on-right monster?
I’m willing to stick with it. This was an “off” day that could have been even better than the blegh line we got. He has a decent schedule ahead of him and when in doubt, believe in tweaks and change if the inherent skills are there. But if you’re hurting and there’s a clear beneficial play on the wire, then go ahead. I get it.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs KCR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
That’s Ray’s fifth of ten starts with 1 ER or fewer and fourth of five with at least seven strikeouts. I’m so glad he’s moved on from 60%-70% fastballs and is spreading the love with sliders, curves, and changeups. And guess what? Every pitch held a 68%+ strike rate. Even 9/10 on the changeup at a 50% CSW! This is the Ray we’ve dreamed of, BSB n all.
Kris Bubic (KCR) @ SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
You see the strikeouts to walks and would think this was an off day. Nope, he was squeezed for two walks and the dude was stupid efficient. His four-seamer and sweeper mopped the floor inside the zone while the changeup returned a 25% SwStr rate, landing down-and-away to RHB aplenty (yes, there were some I wish were executed better). He’s in such a good groove with his heaters and I’m so glad he did the opposite of The List curse and instead cruised with the opportunity.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Don’t go bonkers, Blame it on the White Sox. But yes, the four-seamer was well spotted upstairs and held a 36% CSW. The slider and changeup went 1/23 whiffs, though. Yikes. I’m a little worried about @HOU next, but I think we roll with it until it fails us.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
We needed to see the Sonny skies. The sweeper gave us the glory of 2024 with its stellar paint down-and-in to LHB with four-seamers and cutters above. This was peak Sonny and we’re so glad you’re back. Can we have it for, like, three weeks this time? That would be swell.
Rob Zastryzny (MIL) vs BAL (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 12 pitches.
He opened for Quinn Priester, who spun 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks (ND) – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 66 pitches. Why follow a follower when you can lead with a leader? Wat. Don’t add Priester, get a regular starter instead. Okay, just say that next time. MAYBE I WILL. Good. GOOD.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Nothing like Cincy rolling out the Reds Carpet for guys like Keller to take advantage of. It’s the perfect scenario for the former opening day starter, and he exploited it with 14 called strikes between sweepers and sinkers. Good luck with his second start of the week against the Brewers.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Atta boy Lodolo. The changeup took center stage and churned a ton of outs (and the sole run of the day over the fence…), which is a welcome sight after it has disappeared plenty over the past few weeks. Everything is cool here, even if the curve was a touch off relative to normal.
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs PHI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
Here’s your Gold Star for the night, even if Freeland wasn’t able to steal a Win. Bullpens, who needs ’em? That curveball was disgusting at 10/27 whiffs as it hounded RHB all night. I love watching peak Freeland with his 71% strike rate cruising through games. I often wonder how much more we’d care about him if he weren’t locked into Colorado for so long.
Hunter Dobbins (BOS) vs NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 66 pitches.
He got the early hook with just two whiffs to his name as he continues to boast little excitement as an SP option. It’s like taking a bite of an airport sandwich that disguised how little cheese there was between the slabs of cardboard they called bread. It’s not enough.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs CLE (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 42 pitches.
This game was suspended after three and I’m bummed after watching Ober go 25/26 strikes with his changeup + four-seamer against LHB. This was looking like such a good one for him, even if he already allowed three hits on four heaters in play. Welp, so it goes.
Sean Guenther (DET) @ STL (L) – 0.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 50% CSW, 8 pitches.
We eventually got to Keider Montero for 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches (ND) and it felt like watching ten trailers for us to get permission to watch The Last Jedi. So not worth it.
Davis Martin (CHW) vs SEA (L) – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
Look at that, another one. The cutter is back for another go, here going 19% CSW with a solid out rate on balls in play, setting up the four-seamer and sinker effectively. The few whiffs have me heavily cautious, but Martin did deserve a lot of these outs. Few screamers off the bat and a generally good job attacking the zone. Not my favorite, but this could be a Toby in the making.
Logan Allen (CLE) @ MIN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 53 pitches.
Allen wasn’t getting his heater upstairs and his changeup + sweeper were doing their best to make it work against all RHB. He was saved in this one by the rain. You could say he was blessed by the rains down in Targeta. I hate you for this. Me too.
José Soriano (LAA) @ ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
A VVPQS ain’t pretty but a dub is a dub. Nah, I watch with subtitles. No, man, I mean, yes, that’s the way to do it, but I’m talking Wins, y’all. Ohhhh, like Randy? I’ll stop. Soriano’s sinker is still a bit unruly but the curve is living life as a CSW darling. It’s all a little too chaotic for me, sadly, and I think I’d rather chase others.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 95 pitches.
Wow. Six frames without a strikeout and you still got the Win against the Dodgers?! That’s awesome, but HAISTBMBWT?! You didn’t earn a single whiff. I honestly didn’t know this was possible. Thanks Koufax…? Yes, not a single ball in play returned a hit. Ohhh right. Three solo shots. NUTHIN’ I CAN DO ABOUT THAT. I hear you, Sandy. I hear you. We’ve seen the curveball fall to the wayside as of late and I’m a little worried he’s losing the feel for it against LHB. I hope that comes back and the solid changeup continues to earn outs and plenty of strikes. I’m so glad the Cards + Natty Light are next.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.
So that solo shot in the first was off a really bad slider and yeah, he deserved that. However, the two other runs were back-to-back hits with two outs in separate frames and I’m shocked they were able to squeeze them out. Literally all five baserunners contributed to all three runs. Dang efficiency. The changeup is filthy again, so don’t worry about a thing. And the velocity? It’s hovering 95 mph, still higher than last year.
Kodai Senga (NYM) @ BOS (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.
Huge props to Senga rebounding after some early trouble. Like your favorite veteran musician, all the classics were there with a few fresh additions of sweepers, sliders, and sinkers which combined for 25% of his pitches. They rarely worked and we just wanted him to play Free Falling, but there were moments. Senga is who he is at this point.
Colton Gordon (HOU) @ TBR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 83 pitches.
Whoa, seven strikeouts! That’s fun. Don’t anticipate 10/30 called strikes on his 91 mph four-seamer again, nor the 57% CSW on curveballs flipped into the zone. You can’t trust it – two first names, after all.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 90 pitches.
Wow. Ecab was awesome. The sole blemish was a three-run shot with two outs that bounced off the outfielder’s glove. It was a hanging first pitch curve, sure, but he was so close. That’ll be the last sentence ending in italics, I promise. Meanwhile, the changeup was filthy at times and the slider + curve returned 46% CSW between them. I love the sinker-first approach (the pitch returned 71% strikes), and that slider getting featured 30% of the time to RHB is my kind of jam. This, uh, might be breakout time. This is the most consistent and in control version of Cabrera I’ve seen. You earned that King Cole and I hope you get more ahead of you.
Jack Dreyer (LAD) vs ARI (L) – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 38 pitches.
We got Landon Knack for five frames of blegh – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 106 pitches (ND) – after this one and boy do I wish Ben Casparius was still in this rotation.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ MIL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
Oh Kremer, that cutter is cool, but you can’t leave so many pitches over the plate and think this will work out. It’s the moon’s fault. Yes, it always is, Dean Werewolf.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 79 pitches.
Seven strikeouts are cool, and I’m thankful for the slider as it looked a bit better to RHB in this one, save for a terrible one to Ward that ended up over the wall. Meanwhile, the sinker’s 17/36 called strikes is absurd, but it did cost him with a longball against Schanuel. None of that really matters, though. What I care about is the added drop on the sinker down to 2.6″ of vert. That’s hot. Just get that pitch down dangit.
Ben Brown (CHC) @ MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 83 pitches.
Eight strikeouts and a Gallows Pole for Brown, but two homers did him in. 12/40 whiffs on that hook and too many hittable heaters. That’s what Brown does for you.
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Game of the Day
Hayden Birdsong vs. Los Angeles Angels – Alright, I don’t have high expectations and I hope the control is there. Good luck everyone, I’m not starting him.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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