Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Life Of Bibee

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.  

Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 98 pitches.

I think it’s time to sit down and properly assess Tanner Bibee for the rest of the season, especially after he dominated the Cardinals for 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 98 pitches Saturday. The shallow marks are all showcasing a legit arm – 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 25% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate across 34.1 IP – though does he have the makeup to return these stud starts frequently?

The weapons are there to be a consistent arm, though we haven’t seen his arsenal harnessed at its peak across his six starts. This one was a strange one with his changeup returning a ridiculous 71% CSW with 9/17 whiffs (94% strike rate?!), a pitch that has routinely been Bibee’s #3 offering. Meanwhile, the slider and four-seamer were poor strike offerings, as the slowball stepped up and saved Bibee a fair number of times.

If you look at the whole picture, Bibee’s slider is the hero of the repertoire. Its 35% CSW across 30% usage is fantastic, especially when it boasts a .141 xwOBA (97th percentile!) and just 15% hard contact. However, the four-seamer hasn’t taken many strides forward, with a paltry 25% CSW (32nd percentile) and just an 8.7% SwStr rate as he’s failed to elevate despite his efforts. The curve has turned into a hopeful early “show-me” pitch (88% early rate!), but he can’t land it as the normally high called-strike rate pitch has just a 19% clip and a horrid 52% strike rate.

The whole package should be great, though. His four-seamer seems destined to be an 11%+ SwStr rate pitch once he gets the thing up, his curve shape is solid and should earn more strikes in the future, the slider is excellent, and the changeup’s 40% CSW is stupid good and may deserve to be utilized more than its current 13/14% clip (maybe last night has earned a 25% clip regardless of handedness moving forward?). In short, I see a pitcher with some flaws and not immune from the typical low prospect floor, but a fun ceiling that could come to fruition with more time on the bump.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:

 

Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ ATL (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 106 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. His four-seamer is always amazing, but seeing 8/24 breaker whiffs between the curve and sweeper pushes him to another level. He was a buy low last week, but I think that window may be shut.

Michael Lorenzen (DET) vs CWS (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 95 pitches.

Our streaming pick got back on the horse and did what he was supposed to do against the White Sox. He gets them one more time and I’m not sure if I want to push our luck with that low 22% CSW rate. Up to you.

Luis Castillo (SEA) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 99 pitches.

Aces gonna ace and earn a Golden Goal. Sure, it was the Pirates, but I know y’all had some worry about Castillo lately. I hope his 61% CSW slider has quelled any of those feelings.

Andrew Heaney (TEX) @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.

Just three strikeouts is all kinds of weird (1/15 whiffs on the slider) but hey, we take this all day. It’ll be risky against the Mariners next time as well but I think we go with it. Wish us luck.

Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs SF (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 110 pitches.

I was on the edge of removing the AGA label for Burnes and I think this start keeps it for now, even if it came with three walks against a poor lineup. The cutter was back to its dominating ways and fortunately he had his changeup as a strong #2 pitch. A little weird to still see him toss just one slider, while the curve did work at a 69% strike rate. I hope we’re still cool after his next start in Cincy (please don’t allow a homerun…).

Logan Webb (SF) @ MIL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 107 pitches.

Whoa! The new slider is legit! Well, it might be, but that wasn’t what steered this one (sub 50% strike rate, 2/13 whiffs). That would be a sinker dominating the zone and setting up a 13/51 whiff changeup against a bottom tier offense. And now he gets Pittsburgh? Oh how sweet this is.

Jack Flaherty (STL) @ CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 101 pitches.

Nick, can we just accept that Flaherty is good again? I really want to and maybe I’m getting too lost in the weeds of his velocity and whiff rates, but seeing him down to 92.3 mph with just 2/36 whiffs on his breakers feels like a Blame it on the Guardians instead of a showcase of Flaherty’s legitimacy. But hey, it’s @PIT + CIN next, so I guess we keep rolling with it.

Luis Severino (NYY) vs SD (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.

The one thing I’ve been looking for from Severino is slider dominance and while just 3/19 whiffs isn’t that, the 47% CSW sure is. He’s sitting 98 mph as well and if the changeup can be a touch better, we have a possible AGA label coming back in a month. I hope we get there.

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 109 pitches.

Aces gonna ace with a stupid 1.50 WHIP. There’s no reason to walk batters, Ohtani. It’s the Marlins.

Framber Valdez (HOU) @ OAK (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.

It’s a great outing and yet I’m disappointed as Valdez should trounce the Athletics. Also, just 1/13 CSW on the cutter is annoying. Whatever, we move on.

Garrett Whitlock (BOS) @ ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.

Whitlock returned to toss 92 pitches (whoa) and I dig it. If possible, I’d hold him in the IL spot for his next start against Tampa, then activate him for a fantastic schedule after. If you can’t, I’d still hold as there’s legit potential in his three-pitch mix. Look at the Red Sox with Bello, Paxton, Sale, Houck, and Whitlock all in their grooves (well, Paxton is weird). That’s a real rotation finally.

Chase Anderson (COL) vs NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.

Chase took advantage of the Mets’ patience at the plate to earn 11 four-seamer called strikes and it led to what you see above. Whatever.

Michael Wacha (SD) @ NYY (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 92 pitches.

Awesome job from Wacha as his changeup returned 37% CSW in thirty thrown. I’ve seen better fastball/cutter/curve command from him in the past, but it was good enough to let the changeup do the work. I don’t think I like it against the Cubs next, but there’s a world where this carries over into that start as well.

Charlie Morton (ATL) vs PHI (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 95 pitches.

I don’t want to believe that Morton is just a Cherry Bomb but that might be the right thing to do. It’s weird to see such a terrible WHIP (and four walks!) with fantastic CSW rates across all his pitches, even as he introduced 20 changeups instead of going pure curve/four-seamer. I can’t help but start him without a terrifying schedule ahead as I recognize that his 1.47 WHIP has to come down, but I feel all of y’all out there who want more here. Sidenote: His 31.8% CSW is 13th best in the majors. You really don’t see high WHIPs among those leaders.

Brady Singer (KC) vs WSH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.

Honestly, with the way Singer has gone this year, you’re relieved at this. 8/38 whiffs on the slider is better than we’d seen as of late and we keep moving forward with the Marlins next.

Jesse Scholtens (CWS) @ DET (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 68 pitches.

Ehhhhhhh this isn’t the sneaky play you think it is. Who? As I said, sneeaaaaaaky.

Josiah Gray (WSH) @ KC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.

Blegh. I think now may be the time to move on if you haven’t yet. He gets PHI + ARI + HOU next and while I won’t rule out some successful games there, I think Gray is too volatile and risky at this point. He’s not polished enough with his approach and those teams can mess him up. Yes, the ERA is great at 2.77, but it’s not every day you want to lean on an SP with a 1.41 WHIP, 19.1% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate.

Zach Davies (ARI) vs BOS (L) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.

We had plenty of IL returns on Saturday and Davies didn’t have his best changeup (sub 50% strike rate), but the sinker earned so many called strikes. There may be a sneaky pair of streams ahead with Rockie Road and Washington up next as the changeup feel could come back overnight.

Austin Pruitt (OAK) vs HOU (L) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 29 pitches.

Pruitt opened for Hogan Harris who sparkled with 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks across 77 pitches against the Astros. Yeah, I know. Just five hard-hit balls as his cutter, curve, and changeup soared + the Astros failed to take advantage of his four-seamer in the zone. He’s a Toby if he gets more time in the rotation for the Athletics (maybe without an opener?) and he’s now on my list of streaming options against weak teams if the Athletics elect to keep him over Muller moving forward. Suitman whispers in my ear Wait, Marlins and Pittsburgh next?! Reaaaaaallly…

Dean Kremer (BAL) vs TEX (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.

A slightly better PQS from Kremer is all we could ask for against the Rangers. Now he gets the gift of the Giants and Brewers and I imagine at least one of those will work.

Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ LAA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.

Four walks. Sigh. Yes, he went just 56% fastball strikes (shocking, more at eleven) but the change and curve are still strong offerings…but hot dang, that curve needs to be more than a 48% strike rate. We can maybe turn a blind eye to the heater, but curves have to be there to help the changeup. Whatever, he has Oakland + Kansas City next and we hope he’s better.

Tyler Glasnow (TB) vs LAD (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 83 pitches.

He’s back! Glasnow tossed 80-85 pitches as we expected and I imagine he’ll be around there with a slightly longer leash next time out as well. Ignore the ratios here as Glasnow returned a ton of breaker strikes and looked as filthy as ever. It’s good to have you back.

Pablo López (MIN) vs TOR (W) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.

He ran into trouble early and settled down a bit against a tough Toronto crew. He didn’t have a good feel for the changeup and still kept the Twins in the game. He’s still great y’all.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) @ TB (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 83 pitches.

Blegh. Don’t get any ideas, it’s been a weird time for Kershaw. He’s fine.

Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs CIN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.

I love seeing 28% sweepers from Taillon, but there’s more work to be done. Sit out until the potential start against the Pirates in a few weeks.

Brandon Williamson (CIN) @ CHC (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.

I like the pitch separation, but Williamson isn’t electric and the Cubs are too good of an offense. There’s a chance he’s worthy of a stream against the Brewers, but that’ll be Tier 3.

Vince Velasquez (PIT) @ SEA (L) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 53 pitches.

He returned from the IL and will promptly go back on with elbow discomfort. Poor Vince, he really was figuring it out.

Justin Verlander (NYM) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 79 pitches.

Sooooo Scherzer can handle Coors but Verlander can’t. Noted. The Rockies jumped on everything and now he gets Toronto + Atlanta. Cool cool cool. Feel like I have to remove the AGA label and it stinks. Oh come on Nick, it was Coors! He’s not the guy, I jumped the gun.

Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ MIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.

Noooooooo. He was down a tick or more on everything (except the cutter) and the Twins messed him up in the first and the fifth. Whatareyagonnado. Still keep starting Bassitt but this was massively disappointing.

 

Game of the Day

 

Yu Darvish vs. Gerrit Cole – Two Top 25 arms in a fantastic duel in the Bronx. You love to see it.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)