Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shane Baz (TBR) @ HOU (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.
Okay, the final line doesn’t quite justify the roundup title, but watching the game certainly felt like Shane Baz deserved better than the box score of 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches (ND) in Houston. The problems I’ve seen previous of batters making more contact than expected and seemingly knowing what pitch was coming was still a bit present, but the real issue may be coming from his mix.
Baz is mostly two-pitch these days. His four-seamer is blazing in the mid-to-upper 90s (he hit 100 once!), featuring great curveballs that were taken a ton or swung at aggressively over the plate. It led to many outs and would have had a little more success if he weren’t squeezed a few times. Baz didn’t throw many down-and-out of the zone in deeper in counts, which explains the lack of whiffs overall, and given how he used it as his stabalizing pitch for outs, we shouldn’t be alarmed.
As I mentioned above, it’s hard not to be shocked at the amount of contact on fastballs at 98+ while dealing with a curve in the mid-to-upper 80s. What I’m seeing are batters prepping for the fastball and doing their best to adjust to the curve, which turn into outs. If Baz located the curve low more often, those would be whiffs instead of outs, and it makes the whole package make more sense.
He really needs a third pitch to unleash his true potential and for the love of pete, IT’S NOT THE SLIDER. He threw four more of them here and guess what? A solo shot was the result of one. In fact, he’s allowed 4 HRs off 36 sliders across his last last five games, matching the total of his other 397 pitches in those games. Make it stop. It’s simply a worse version of his curve and doesn’t look similar enough to his heater. I hope he can take the same path as Ryan Pepiot by turning the slider into more of a cutter, hurling a 90-92 mph pitch that would create a different velocity band and have more deception vs, the four-seamer than its current state. The changeup doesn’t seem to be the answer, either, with moments that work and others where the lack of drop gets it hit righty-on-righty.
I’m a fan of Baz. I think the fastball/curve are filthy McGee and his horrible stretch previously was strange. I see an upgraded version of Ben Brown, though I may be wishcasting the “fix” that may never come via a cutter or sinker to pair with the heater. Even so, the struggling Rangers offense awaits and I’m picking him up where I can. His stuff is too good and he doesn’t have the command issues of other stuff pitchers who struggle.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
José Berríos (TOR) vs ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
You can’t be The Great Undulator without starts like these that get you hooked. This is one of the lowest King Cole awards we’ll issue this year and to see it granted to Berríos when he went just 13% curveballs at a 25% CSW is wild. The Athletics really didn’t want to swing as those sinkers over the plate, eh? I don’t believe in Berríos as a sinker/four-seamer/change arm, and this start changes nothing, sadly.
Chris Sale (ATL) @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The King Cole was there for the taking and you couldn’t seize it, could ya? Too many thigh-high pitches here for that, while the changeup is still fully on the shelf. No reason to change that based on his success as of late, and besides, they’re having a great time chatting with the elf. Let them be happy.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.
Atta boy Gore. The Mariners’ offense has been far better this year, but @TEA is still a thing and it led to a well-deserved Gallows Pole rooted in four-seamer domination to RHB once again. That pitch is just too good.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs ATL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
The sinker had ten balls in play, six finding grass for hits. What happened to Koufax? He can only do so much when sinkers are landing over the heart of the plate so often! Sánchez messed around with sliders more than usual against RHB and it wasn’t all that great, but at least he’s trying to expand the arsenal? Whatever, the changeup is still killer and we move on. The WHIP is frustrating, I know.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs WSN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 65 pitches.
I debated Hancock vs. Lopez for the stream for a while and I let y’all down. At least PL Bot got it right! That makes it worse, you let a machine beat you! Yeah, but at least there’s more than one perspective! Hancock was served all LHB and cooked with the changeup and sinker away, while he danced in-and-out of the zone upstairs with the four-seamer to help keep the Nats honest. That slowball is his best offering, even if it wasn’t always getting chases here, and I wish the Mariners let him survive a little longer as he could have pushed further toward the seventh. I’m not willing to test this against the Orioles (I need more juice in the arsenal – four whiffs and three walks ain’t it), but at least he’s not the worst ignored SP on the wire.
Ryan Gusto (HOU) vs TBR (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
The heater and curve did their best, the sinker isn’t great against RHB, and I encourage y’all to try something else. Maybe in the future?
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) @ PHI (ND) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 38 pitches.
He left this game early after getting a comebacker to the calf…but then apparently hearing a “pop” in his arm with diminished velocity. Oh no. Yeaaaah. He was placed on the IL and “It doesn’t look good”. We should expect Bryce Elder to return to the rotation in his place, which could be against the Sneks or the Giants. That’s a desperate play against the Giants for a possible Win, but I’d definitely avoid the Diamondbacks.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs ATL (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 107 pitches.
Aces gonna run into trouble with two sinkers, a cutter, and a two-run shot off a splitter, then walk two in the sixth before getting the hook and two more ER coming via the pen. I had a dream that Wheeler pitched a Maddux the night before (no joke, I swear it’s not common) and I’m sorry I’m not a prophet. That’s not the business here anyway! We’re expected to have good discussions, not being correct. After all, we’re not the humans throwing the ball. ANYWAY, the fella had a rough moment on the bump, whatareyagonnado.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) @ TOR (L) – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 43 pitches.
Welp, that was a fun first start at least. Pro tip: Don’t throw a 2-0 fastball sub 90 mph down the pipe to Vlad Jr. We can forget about this until he showcases better command like the first start again, it was a pipedream anyway.
Game of the Day
Lucas Giolito vs. Grant Holmes – LOOK AT MY BOYZ.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
