Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Loucrative Varland

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Louie Varland (MIN) vs COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 63 pitches.

We saw the return of Louie Varland today, an arm I’ve shared many emotions about since his introduction in 2023. His cause for demotion earlier this year was lack of command across his four-seamer, cutter, and curve and this start wasn’t so different. However, Rockie Road is a lovely thing, helping Varland return 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 63 pitches as he stepped back onto a major league field. Super sneaky value for those who took the gamble.

I still like his four-seamer shape with elite extension and a flat attack angle, but his inability to keep it upstairs frustrates me a bit. We did see some nice cutters and curves along the way, too, but they aren’t the magical pitches that can carry an outing without his four-seamer laying down the foundation.

With the Twins unlikely to keep Varland around (I believe this was to give the rotation an extra day of rest), I wouldn’t be refreshing Twitter to find out when Varland gets another shot. I’ve been waiting for a long time to witness his four-seamer seizing a game on its own and it’s unlikely we get it in his very next start in the bigs.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

Miles Mikolas (STL) vs PIT (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.

Props to Mikolas for this one. He had a solid approach and execution of keeping his four-seamer and sinker routinely out of the zone and relying on sliders to get strikes over the plate. It worked for seven strong frames against a weak team and while I wouldn’t expect it against the Cubs, Mikolas could be a decent streamer if this is his consistent gameplan moving forward.

Paul Skenes (PIT) @ STL (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He even went 14/20 curveball strikes because he needed another weapon. In fact, this could have been even better if it weren’t for 16/43 foul balls on the four-seamer. Those should have been whiffs dangit!

Cal Quantrill (COL) @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 100 pitches.

I want you to put the word out that we back up. His splitter was back to its phenomenal self at a 66% strike rate, while his sinker, curve, and cutter combined for 9/59 whiffs. We’ll take that all day. What we won’t take is another start against the Dodgers, so you can just ignore all of this and leave The UnQuantrillfiable on the wire.

Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 91 pitches.

Atta boy Taillon. This was mostly fastball, cutter, and curve, with the former pair pounding the zone with strikes and the latter returning foul balls galore. Feel free to take another chance against the Cardinals on Sunday, I’m worried Taillon doesn’t do enough to justify a whole lot of trust. It’s a QS play and not much else.

Marcus Stroman (NYY) @ KCR (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 102 pitches.

It’s a HAISTBMBWT?! but you don’t have Stroman for the strikeouts. You have him for the Wins and ratios. You got your wish, don’t get spoiled.

Albert Suárez (BAL) vs ATL (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! It’s a Gold Star, though I really need to reconsider the strength of the Atlanta offense moving forward. You should note Albert earned 9/49 whiffs not on the heater, but with cutters + changeups, two pitches that have failed to show up in a major way thus far. Ignore his next start against the Yankees…and the Astros after that…and probably the Rangers after that, but hopefully Suárez is still featuring these skills and can be trusted after. No need to hold him through the schedule gauntlet, of course.

Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) @ MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 97 pitches.

Well this was a weird one. Kikuchi’s four-seamer was outrageous and everything I could have dreamed for it. We’re talking 12/63 whiffs as it lived in the upper third of the zone, featuring elite extension, HAVAA (1.8!) and a tick of extra velo at 96/97 mph. So what was weird? Well, just three whiffs on the rest of his arsenal, with his changeup and slider returning 13% CSW between them. In other words, his slider is still out of whack, his changeup is still blegh and even if the curve went 7/18 called strikes, it was still a pitch Kikuchi wrestled with throughout the game. We’re in such a good place with the heater that I think the questionable secondaries are digestible (with clear room to grow which can arrive as soon as his next start) and we keep starting Kikuchi against the Red Sox next week.

Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ DET (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.

This doesn’t show the four unearned runs on the books, nor the heavy two-pitch approach that featured 83% four-seamers or curveballs. Add all of that up and you have a HAISTBMBWT?! with 0/67 whiffs on heaters and curves. Blegh. I have to mention, though, his four-seamer precision at the very top of the zone was pretty dang spectacular (how did that induce 0/46 whiffs?!) and I don’t think he pitched nearly as pedestrian as the line suggests. Expect better against the Marlins and not Wobbly Parker over here.

Brent Suter (CIN) vs CLE (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 15 pitches.

Suter opened for 1.2 IP of Nick Martinez, who allowed a trio of runs and tossed just 39 pitches. Welp, at least he threw over 30% changeups…?

Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. It wasn’t the best four-seamer location, but Wheeler’s fastball had a ridiculous feature in this one. Instead of the standard 1.4 HAVAA that outlines a generally flat four-seamer, Wheeler posted a 1.9 HAVAA, which would be 99th percentile if were to hold it throughout the year. No, I have no idea how Wheeler suddenly gave himself one of the flattest fastballs around, nor do I know whether it’ll stick past this game (probably not?).

Ronel Blanco (HOU) @ SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 96 pitches.

A Golden Goal for Blanco is a beautiful sight, though his changeup wasn’t nearly the dominating force I was hoping to see. It has been a little bit since we’ve seen that slowball on point for Blanco and brings a touch of concern, though if his slider and heater are this good moving forward, I have no worries whatsoever. Seriously, his slider was fantastic as it made a home right off the corner of the plate, and that fastball was either elevated properly or perfectly dotted down-and-gloveside. It was glorious.

James Paxton (LAD) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 87 pitches.

Nick, should we jump back on the Paxton train? That’s another Win! Yeah, with two strikeouts and a 92.6 mph fastball. Yeah? So yes? No. That yeah is a no. No? No. Awwww. Yeah. Kool-Aid Man enters the room NOT NOW, I DON’T NEED THE EXTRA SUGAR.

Drew Thorpe (CHW) @ SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.

Thorpe has gotten a fair bit of hype across the last year and after watching his MLB debut I’m…not gonna be one of those massively advocating for Thorpe. Yes, the changeup is far-and-away his best pitch and a strong offering (39% usage, 18% SwStr rate, 71% strikes, etc.), but that’s all there is to like. I need more than an arm trying to be the next Michael Wacha for me to get on board, especially if they pitch for the Win-deprived White Sox crew. But fine, for those in QS leagues, I can see Thorpe coming through against the Sneks up next. It’s just more Toby than potential Holly or even ace. And with the Shag Rug very much in play, Thorpe doesn’t push the needle enough (nor move the envelope) in 12-teamers to justify the roster spot.

Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs OAK (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.

That WHIP hurts, the ERA does not. I’m not much of a fan of the overall arsenal – 0/29 whiffs on changeups, cutters, and sweepers, for example – and we saw a game where the curve and four-seamer found a way to squeak through five frames. I really don’t suggest leaning into this one. Vásquez’s curveball went just 12/25 strikes while the four-seamer’s high-school yearbook featured an acrostic for M.E.H. How creative.

Kenta Maeda (DET) vs WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches.

He sat 91 mph on his heater (Whoa! That’s high for Maeda!) and that’s the sole excitement I can give you from this start. I really advise y’all to not chase Maeda these days. He doesn’t have nearly the same ceiling as he used to.

Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 88 pitches.

Ayyyy I’ll take this all day from Crawford. His splitter woke up to help out with 4/10 whiffs, while his three major pitches each did their part to get Kutter through six frames (with two extra unearned runs). Sadly, it’s the Yankees next, which is a clear sit, but feel good about Kutter after that.

Jesús Luzardo (MIA) @ NYM (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.

Luzardo rebounded from the nine-earned-run game by spotting changeups beautifully, though the four-seamer did give me some anxiety as it consistently landed over the plate. He’s a Cherry Bomb who should be helpful more times than not and while I didn’t expect failure here, we all know it can happen at any point, even against the Nationals next time out. That dang heater is too hittable + the slider is often hung and pummeled.

Zach Eflin (TBR) vs CHC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.

Ehhhh, I guess it’s fine. Eflin is looking a whole lot like a Toby these days and while that isn’t bad, it’s certainly underwhelming. All I want is to be perfectly whelmed. I’M NOT ASKING FOR MUCH.

Triston McKenzie (CLE) @ CIN (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 75 pitches.

McKenzie was able to nibble the edges with his four-seamer and keep his curveball down effectively, while the slider still cannot be trusted in the slightest. At just 90.3 mph on the heater and 1/16 curveball whiffs, you should feel the figurative collar being tugged as he squirmed his way into the sixth. The Mariners are next and that could be an easier time, but I’d still have some major concerns there. McKenzie is frolicking on thin ice.

Tylor Megill (NYM) vs MIA (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.

Not an efficient game for Megill, but the cutter was strong and helped him earn a Gallows Pole for his efforts. I’m still waiting for Megill to properly command his heater and I’d be hesitant to trust him against the Padres up next, despite his eight strikeouts and the many whiffs tonight.

Carlos Rodríguez (MIL) vs TOR (L) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches.

It was Rodriguez’s MLB debut and despite the pristine four-seamer location, I can’t get behind this. He has an array of pitches, none of which made me lean forward in my chair or anxious to watch his next start. This ain’t it.

Jordan Montgomery (ARI) vs LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.

Blegh. A Philly for Monty with a poor WHIP and just three strikeouts is far from ideal as he was gifted an outing against the Angels. But he got a Win! At what cost? AT WHAT COST?! Surely he’s still decent enough for a start against the White Sox, right? What has this world come to?!

Jhonathan Díaz (SEA) vs CHW (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.

It was a pair of MLB debuts against each other with Díaz opposite Thorpe and the only reason he’s here is because Bryan Woo is getting an MRI on his arm. Díaz does not have the stuff you want to see in a rookie arm and let’s look elsewhere to fill up your fantasy teams.

JP Sears (OAK) @ SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.

Blegh. I’m so sad. Sears had the full catalog working for him in his last start and this was so much worse. Four-seamers were acting like a four-year-old’s birthday party post-cake with just one parent on watch, living well outside the zone and doing whatever it wanted. Sinkers got too much of the zone. Sliders and sweepers weren’t earning enough strikes. At least the changeup was generally well spotted down-and-gloveside? In the end, the hope of Sears actually figuring it out was a pipe dream and while he’ll always carry that chance of replicating it on a given night, best of luck to you figuring out when that’ll be. Flip the coin if you must against the Twins on Sunday, who knows how it’ll land.

Jordan Hicks (SFG) vs HOU (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.

He did his best with his sweeper and splitter in this one, but he was sick with the flu and it ultimately held him back. Oh, and the Astros n whatnot. Start him against the Cubs next time out. You’ll be fine.

Max Fried (ATL) @ BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.

Aces gonna allow a three-run shot on a curveball, a pitch that rarely ever allows a home run across his career. THOSE BIRDS, I TELL YA.

José Suarez (LAA) @ ARI (L) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 65 pitches.

I’m a little surprised he went as long as 65 pitches (especially in fewer than three innings!), but the rest is right in line. Expect Chase Silseth to take this spot moving forward and Suarez to return to the pen. Nice hanging with you Suarez, say hi to your mother for me.

Brady Singer (KCR) vs NYY (L) – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 103 pitches.

Well, yeah. The Yankees, yo.

Dane Dunning (TEX) @ LAD (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.

The Dodgers. Please don’t overthink these starts for guys like Dunning.

 

Game of the Day

 

Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Cade Povich – This could be terrible or it could be so fun.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)