Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
I’m floored that it’s June 12th and after Thursday’s 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches (L) against the Orioles, Bryan Woo now carries a 4.28 ERA across fourteen starts. He’s allowed at least 4 ER five times this season, with three of those disasters cropping up across his last four starts. Managers are in a panic, but if they just grab a pint on the pub and wait for this to blow over, it’ll all be fine.
You’re likely sick and tired of hearing that. So many starters drafted inside the Top 50 are producing poor marks as of late – Sandy, Cabrera, Robbie, Valdez, King, Peralta, Kirby, Bradish, Yesavage, McLean, I could go on – and you don’t want to wait. You want production and you want it NOW.
Well, then I’d be vying to trade for Woo. Sometimes, this can be as simple as pointing to one number and saying “That ain’t right,” which would be Woo’s 62.3% LOB rate this year. That mark has no right being anywhere close to that, and with his traditional marks elsewhere (WHIP, strikeouts, h/9, SwStr rate, even his HR/9 is under 1.00!), it’s often best just to trust the regression.
There is one problem. Woo’s BABIP is a little more elevated than previous seasons, and as a limited groundball arm, that would be either more poor luck or worse contact allowed, and, sadly, it’s the latter. Woo’s ICR has risen from an elite clip (33/34%) to a below-average mark near 40%. It’s not just one offering, but a steady rise across the main three (four-seamer, sinker, sweeper), with the biggest jump on his four-seamer to LHB. So he’s worse? Yes and no. I don’t believe the sinker and four-seamer have taken a step back, but it’s the sweeper feel to RHB that has declined. He only threw two yesterday, including the cement-mixer down the pipe to Pete Alonso that capped his nightmarish six-run third frame with a bomb to left. He’s gotta fix that.
At the end of the day, if it means Woo returns to more fastballs, for the time being, that’s fine. His LOB rate will normalize, and I’m sure he’ll find that sweeper in time. This is the crater of his season, not the bluff that cuts off his elite plateau. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Keider Montero (DET) vs MIN (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
Well that’s one way to end a stint in a rotation. Montero had allowed 3+ ER in four of his previous five and with Mize, Skubal, and Verlander on the verge of returning + Melton likely having the inside track for any open spot, Montero’s duty is complete. A 3.61 ERa and 1.01 WHIP across thirteen games deserves a salute from all of us, even if a full year’s worth of starts were unlikely to return similar final marks with a sub 17% strikeout rate and .226 BABIP (but with an elite ICR, so there was some truth to this!). I’m sure we’ll see him again at some point, in which he’ll regain his 15-team Toby glory. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 70 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star for Phillips, stuck to his King Cole award for his night against the Sneks. I had some interest in Phillips after his outing a few weeks ago, but jumped off last time, and I may be back in. He’s a sinker/sweeper arm at 18″ ride and 13″ sweep + a decent 82/83 mph curve he’s working on locating to both LHB and RHB, which isn’t the greatest foundation, but it can work. There’s also a four-seamer he can elevate to LHB in two-strikes at 96 mph (got a punchout on it!) and an inconsistent splitter (Gasp!) to help putting batters away, but I’m not sure he can command it all properly with enough frequency to take a chance on a pitcher who has barely started thus far. How about we hold off for the Phillies outing next and hope there are enough signs to go after it against the Giants? (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 74 pitches.
Sure, it’s a HAISTBMBWT?! but blame the Marlins for getting themselves out so often that only one-third of their batters even saw a two-strike count in the first place. Kelly is doing what he normally does – living around the edges with a wide six-pitch array – and with his glorious LAA, @STL, @TBR schedule ahead, I don’t see why you’d hold back. (View Game Card)
Edward Cabrera (CHC) @ COL (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 83 pitches.
Nice! I had no exectations for this one in Coors and I’m glad to see Cabrera not just sitting up a tick, but throwing a ton of fastballs for strikes. We’re talking both four-seamers and sinkers returning 70%+ strikes in this one, making up for the highly unreliable curveball and changeup. Wait, the changeup? Ole faithful? Weird, right? He’ll host the Rockies next, which seems great, except that it’s June Wrigley. He’s a HIPSTER, y’all, and this start isn’t enough for me to change that label. (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ KCR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.
You just couldn’t give us one more out, could you? The slider wasn’t Dancing With The Disco as well as we’ve seen, but at least we’re still seeing roughly 60% cutters and sliders. Y’all know how much I question this, but he could still be a boring Toby against the Twins and Marlins up next. (View Game Card)
Hunter Dobbins (STL) @ NYM (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
We saw both sides of Dobbins here – the Shag Rug with a pair of HRs with just one out on the board in the first, then he went to work with some impressive stuff to fan five and return four shutout innings after. The four-seamer/slider combo isn’t elite, but it’s solid when he commands it this well, with 96 mph heaters up and 89 mph sliders down. Ten sinkers to RHB served their purpose (90% strikes!) and this could be interesting. Slight chance of exciting, but I still question if he has enough oomph in the tank to make it happen. Is that missing a 1? Huh? Oh, no, that’s not a typo for 100 mph. That’s oomph. Pizzaz. STUFF. If you’re dying for something, sure, go after Dobbins for SDP and ARI next, but I don’t feel the urge in 12-teamers. (View Game Card)
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs TEX (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 102 pitches.
Alright. That’s three straight duds from Wacha and it’s likely best for us just to move on, even if I kinda like the matchup against the Nationals. He’s a Toby, anyway, I don’t think it’s worth the ceiling at this point. (View Game Card)
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) @ PIT (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches.
WroboCop was cruising through four before a horrible fifth frame with 2 HRs, ultimately departing after a comebacker and a collision at first base on the same play. Beforehand, we saw his fastball sitting above 95 mph again (sweet), but his lack of slider precision for the outing is ultimately why you’re yelling HAISTBMBWT?! They’re hopeful he’ll miss an IL stint, and despite the two sliders that left the yard, I’d start him against the Rays. (View Game Card)
Christian Scott (NYM) vs STL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
A poor-man’s Gallows Pole for Scott, who allowed a trio of HRs to LHB on high offerings, and truly just a floated sweeper up that was a proper mistake. I dig the Canibal McSanchez attack with his cutter, but I do worry that he doesn’t have enough working at the bottom of the zone, due to his cutter and sweeper lacking proper depth. There is an 82 mph “slider” that appears like a curveball that can have some depth, but it’s a work in progress and I wonder how he’ll expand the zone in the future. That said, he got unlucky with those longballs here and otherwise pitched great. He’s questionable in Cincy due to the park, and you should treat him as a solid Toby with the upside to become a Holly in the second half. (View Game Card)
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 98 pitches.
It was Keller against the Dodgers and it’s Sacré Verde up next. Y’all don’t need me. (View Game Card)
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
Bleeeegh. Literally every slider over the plate was hit, including two HRs to left-handers, while the curveball didn’t fare much better, allowing a HR of its own. His feel is bad right now and the saga continues. Maybe he’s just a HIPSTER, maybe it was a worse day and tomorrow will be better. I wish I had the answers. (View Game Card)
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs CHC (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 75 pitches.
The Cubs needed this one, alright? Are you suggesting that’s the only reason why Feltner, in Coors and against the Cubs, didn’t perform well? Uhhhh….no. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Oh Zebby. The velocity was down to sub-94 mph levels as he threw, once again, too many hittable pitches over the plate. Well, save for the slider, which did a great job to RHB, but everything else was not it. I implore you to consider other options. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Tatsuya Imai @ Kansas City Royals – I’ll be at the game Friday night, and I’m looking forward to getting a close-up look at Imai’s reverse slider.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
