Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs TEX (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches.
I take joy in the little things across the baseball season. The forgotten starts that look terrible in the box score but actually display a step forward that could blossom down the line. Down the line could mean in months or in the case of Trevor Rogers, it could be the very next start. After lasting just 2.1 IP in a bamboozling of a third inning, Rogers returned a rare eight inning performance for the Orioles against the RHB-exclusive Rangers: 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches (W). This is one of the proudest Gold Star ribbons I’ve given out all year and I wish I had more conviction in the skills from his last outing.
What are those skills? Why, it’s the BSB with 94 mph fastballs up, legit changeups down, and sliders with the occasional surprise sweeper backdoor for 43% called strikes. We’ve waited years for Rogers to display this talent again – 94 mph velocity with excellent changeups and solid breakers with proper command – and I don’t see how the Orioles would remove Rogers from the rotation moving forward as long as he has this ability.
But how good is this, really? He had those skills last outing and it didn’t work. We have a very small sample of Rogers at this level and it’s possible he’s exerting himself more than he can maintain across weeks and months. The Rays are up next and I think it’s worthwhile to see if he can handle their LHB with sinkers in + sliders away while keeping the changeup down and 94 mph up. Maybe it wasn’t such a terrible trade after all.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
You lovely southpaw. Eduardo had his changeup working last time and against the CrySox, he took full advantage…without the changeup being all that great. Funny how that works. The four-seamer dominated with 70% strikes across 54% usage, while the cutter and sinker maneuvered with the changeup to fill in the gaps. Watching him return six punchouts on the 92 mph fastball makes this a clear Blame it on the White Sox, but who cares. Enjoy the production and let’s try it another time against the Marlins.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ MIL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 35 pitches.
This was a bullpen game and there is some promise here. It’s an empty velocity four-seamer at 96/97 mph (likely lower if stretched out past 35 pitches) with a good 91/92 mph slider that could become something if spotted better and a huge curve that he hopes to land for called strikes. I do like the focus on inside sinkers to RHB with the rare high heater for punchouts, switching to exclusive four-seamers with curves and sliders against LHB that he commands decently well. Maybe this is a 2026 thing or maybe he’s featured in a trade somewhere. We’ll see.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs NYY (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Yooooo, way to be DOPE. The curve had some misses inside to LHB, sure, but mostly landed away to both LHB and RHB and set the tone at 74% strikes and 39% CSW. Meanwhile, the four-seamer was incredible as he consistently spotted it upstairs at 94/95 mph (up a tick!), even if he wants that HR to Judge back. And then there’s the changeup that was dotted down-and-away to RHB that puts it all together. He’s really coming into his own, y’all.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs CHC (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
Oh snap, against the Cubs?! Atta boy Liberatore. The changeup added two inches of horizontal away from RHB, though I wish he could have located more of them not down the heart of the plate, while the four-seamer was up and the curveball was down (albeit, a 44% strike rate on the latter…). We saw some lovely sliders in the mix as well and among all the whoops pitches here and there, Liberatore executed a majority of them. That really is who Liberatore is, eh? He’s not pristine, he’s not overwhelming, but he generally has a good approach with meh 95 mph heaters, a massive curve, decent sliders, decent cutters, and developing changeups.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) @ NYM (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.
We’ll take it and I’m absolutely stunned he didn’t earn a single whiff on his curve, slider, or cutter. That’s 0/34 whiffs and I’m shook. The curve returned a 36% strike rate despite throwing a ton of perfect low curves just out of the zone to LHB and whatever, we got a great outing. Props to the sinker showing up in a huge way against RHB – 55% usage suddenly with pristine spots on the inside edge save for one or two and it led to the efficiency you see above. 7/10 fouls on the cutter is also pretty fantastic for early strikes, it’s just…what is up with that slider and curve? One day he’ll have it all.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 91 pitches.
That’s two straight of dominance after removing Woo’s AGA label, here returning a Golden Goal away from @TEA. How about this – you keep dominating against the Rangers, Royals, and in the Bronx, and you have it back, alright?
Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
Ehhhhhh, he didn’t have the phenomenal high-heater + low curveball split that made a pristine BSB poster from last game. In fact, both pitches allowed a HR and their poor locations led to more walks than strikeouts. HAISTBMBWT?! We’re back to avoiding this safe for the safest of all matchups.
Paul Blackburn (NYM) vs ATL (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
The Mets aren’t actually going to keep Blackburn in the rotation, right? Montas returns on Tuesday, Manaea makes his season debut in a week, and they have far better rookie arms to call up instead. But it’s the Pirates next. So? Should the Mets really create a six-man to keep Blackburn around?
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
You can’t be the Jack of One Trade if said trade is a sinker thrown more than anything with a sub 50% strike rate. But what if the trade was his changeup all along? Oh dang. That slowball was as good as I’ve seen it down-and-away to LHB, but it doesn’t take over unless the sinker does its part, too. Now I’m curious if the pitch will stick moving forward.
Chad Patrick (MIL) vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
Nine strikeouts if pretty rad, especially with three on sinkers and four on four-seamers. The cutter is still great but it wasn’t as dotted as we’ve seen and I still wish there was more from his slider and changeup. He threw plenty of hittable pitches here and there was some Blame it on the Pirates involved for those punchouts. But hey, Rockie Road, Marlins, and Nats are next. Guess we’re rolling him out for all three, eh?
Allan Winans (NYY) @ CIN (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 62 pitches.
Yeaaaah. You did what you could, fella. Stroman is likely in this spot moving forward, as if you’d want him for the Jays, Mets, and Cubs, anyway.
Stephen Kolek (SDP) vs WSN (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 80 pitches.
That seems about right for Kolek – a slider focused arm without a good four-seamer – against a LHB lineup. He did spot that heater perfectly upstairs for 65% strikes and zero hits allowed, but the slider had to fall underneath and it was too hittable while the rare sinker or cutter burned him as well. Let’s just not go with Kolek for obvious reasons.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 77 pitches.
After refusing to allow more than 4 ER all season, Corbin has now done it twice. WELL ALRIGHT THEN. I’ll stop mentioning this, I guess. It is pretty cool that he went BSB with massive hiLoc% sinkers and sliders down, though. The sinker was punished because it’s bad and shouldn’t be located upstairs. Okay that’s super fair. It has drop at 10″ of vert with a super steep HAVAA. That doesn’t seem wise, Patrick.
Walker Buehler (BOS) @ LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 7 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Hey, you. Let’s just not touch Buehler for a while, okay? Sweet, thanks. You realize that those seven walks also came with multiple HBP too, right?
Shane Smith (CHW) vs ARI (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 64 pitches.
The Sneks are tough, though I know y’all are thinking the same thing. This is the regression, eh? It sure feels like that. While his stamina has improved across the year to maintain 96 mph across full outings, he hasn’t had gains in his command. We should be seeing BSB from Smith and while the changeups can be there (we saw some solid low ones here), the heater isn’t always up, and the breakers haven’t taken the step forward. It seems like he’s set to avoid the Dodgers (phew!) and get the Giants on Sunday instead, which is still a start for me. Follow that with @COL, CLE, @PIT, and it doesn’t seem like we should stay on this train for a few more stops.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs SEA (L) – 7.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
Lucky number sevens aren’t a real thing, clearly. He put up (four) crooked numbers here, rooted in a trio of HRs for six of those runs. The one to Julio was an 0-2 changeup under the zone and it goes to show how batters aren’t afraid of his heater or breaker enough to get burned by the changeup. I really think you can do better than hold on Ober at this point. He’s battling through injury and even if the four-seamer was better at getting upstairs here, it’s not enough at just over 90 mph without the hero changeup and a questionable set of breakers.
Ben Brown (CHC) @ STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
He breaks the Huascar Rule, which means he had some solid outings when the curve dominates and the four-seamer doesn’t get blasted and some horrible nights when the curve is meh and the four-seamer is down the pipe. I can’t express enough how you can do better than this HIPSTER.
Game of the Day
Carlos Rodón vs. Chase Burns – It’s an MLB debut for a super stud arm and we’re watching it LIVE on Playback.tv/pitcherlist tonight at 7pm ET. Be there y’all.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
