Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs ARI (ND) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 76 pitches.
We knew the day would come. Bryce Elder has had his title of Vargas Rule stripped away, demoted to a considerable streamer after tonight’s 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 76 pitches disaster. It’s the second straight clunker of a game, and those are the rules. In fact, it’s even a gracious interpretation of the rule as I allowed him two different exceptions prior.
There isn’t much more to this. Elder is a sinker/slider arm who relies on called strikes on the sinker and hopefully enough whiffs and weak contact on the slider to get by. It breaks the Huascar Ynoa rule as I don’t consider either pitch to be elite (both the slider and sinker are sub-21st percentile in PLV this year), and for a pitcher in the 98th percentile of Hit Luck (his pitches should have allowed twenty more hits than they have), it was inevitable that Elder would come crashing down soon enough. But it’s the Brewers next! Stream that if you want – he’s still a streaming option! – but don’t think of him as a rotation piece through the year. Drop him when needed and identify the solid matchups.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs TB (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
93.8, 94.4, 96.1, 94.1 mph. Those are Eovaldi’s previous four outings. This one? 93.1 mph. HOW IS HE GETTING AWAY WITH THIS? I’m also perplexed the Rangers haven’t stepped in as he’s so obviously injured once again (he’s supposed to be 96/97!) and yet, he’s surviving against teams like the Rays. I guess we start him until this blows up in our faces…? H’oh boy.
Luis Medina (OAK) vs BOS (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
Oh snap! The slider must have been amazing again! Nah, it was 3/15 whiffs. Oh. But the curve went 5/14 whiffs, making 8/29 whiffs on breakers. YES! Wait, he has a curveball?! Don’t look at me. Oh right, he had that one start against the Rays a month ago that was decent with it. Huh. If Medina can keep getting the whiffs on breakers, there’s something legit here. It very much feels like a temporary moment of bliss, but maybe. Just maybe.
Logan Allen (CLE) @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 77 pitches.
I want to be more stoked that Allen pulled off the BSB with his heater, change, and sweeper, but he also sat 1.5 ticks down on his four-seamer as it went just 2/37 whiffs despite its high location. This screams a peak start with unsustainable command against a poor offense that isn’t going to stick around, sadly. That doesn’t mean it’s a terrible idea to roster Allen, just keep your expectations in check when he faces Philly this week.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs NYY (W) – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 99 pitches.
We had both awards earned in this game, with The Irish Panda getting an elusive King Cole and finally having an evening with both his slider and changeup getting good CSW marks. I honestly can’t remember the last time I saw that from him…and it’s likely because his changeup wasn’t nearly as good as the 35% CSW and 8/26 whiffs would suggest – it returned just 46% strikes. I think that should quell any thoughts that Sandoval could replicate these results in his next outing.
Joe Musgrove (SD) @ TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 109 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. All the breakers are working and it’s the Musgrove dream.
Jordan Montgomery (STL) vs MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
Lovely work here from The Bear, even if that WHIP is a little high and no Win was found. The hamstring scare is behind us and I hope he earns more dubs on whatever team he heads to.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 74 pitches.
He’s back and the same as ever – 11/24 fastballs strikes (lol), 46% CSW on breakers, and a fantastic changeup. We ride it and hope that the heater can find the zone a little more.
Michael Grove (LAD) @ BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Grove shoved as many cutters, curves, and four-seamers into the zone as he possibly could, somehow turning his best pitch – the slider – into an afterthought at just 20% usage and only 17% CSW. How is it that one of his best starts (if not the best) is the one where his slider is mediocre? That’s baseball, Suzyn.
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs MIL (W) – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 98 pitches.
Yesssss. 0/24 four-seamer whiffs is strange, but seeing 43%+ CSW on everything else is glorious. Please don’t get interrupted in your hot streak this time.
Taj Bradley (TB) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
Oh right, there’s the upside that has us holding onto Bradley. He’s mini-Glasnow, which means he’s impervious to his opposition’s influence, good or bad. Pretty cool seeing him sit a tick higher while nailing changeups and curveballs for strikes. Now do it often. Whoa whoa whoa, let’s not get WILD up in here.
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 90 pitches.
The Bailey Special is served with a PQS with your typical six innings and seven baserunners. It’s just what he does. Also, pretty cool to see him nail changeups and sliders down low to complement the always-high four-seamer. That’s the good stuff.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs WSH (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 92 pitches.
Yeah, this ain’t it. Taillon needs to squeeze everything out of his repertoire to get the results you want and that’s an awfully rare occurrence, even if it happened last time out. That was your standard Birthday Party, of course.
Patrick Corbin (WSH) @ CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
The new slider is obviously great – 10/41 whiffs, 39% CSW – but nothing else is. Give this man a fastball STAT. CSW is a good one you should consider. … Ohhhhhh. It was a lovely choice.
Joe Jacques (BOS) @ OAK (L) – 1.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 29 pitches.
You can’t have Jacques without jams. Nailed it. Chris Murphy followed for 65 pitches of 4.2 IP shutout ball with six strikeouts and yet, I can’t possibly endorse this. Sorry bucko.
Jake Bird (COL) vs HOU (ND) – 1.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 24 pitches.
Who are you? I’m the starter. No you aren’t. Fine, I’m Jake, the opener for a bullpen game. Hi Jake. Why are you here? Sigh Because the Rockies can’t sign pitching since no one wants to pitch in an elevated ballpark and ruin their career numbers and we don’t focus enough on internally developing stud starting pitchers. Thank you Jake. Can I go now? Didn’t you leave after the first? Oh. Right. Openers. Sheesh.
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ COL (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
It’s Coors and I’m pretty happy with a near 1.00 WHIP and seven strikeouts. Funny thing – I still can’t figure out what Brown’s approach is. Wow. Such funny. Maybe it is both low and elevated four-seamers? I’m into that if the curve and slider are doing their part, too. I’m excited to see it possibly come together against Oakland next time out.
Julio Teheran (MIL) @ PHI (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.
I don’t care if he’s throwing a tick harder, the Vargas Rule ended a few weeks ago and without his magic, he’s just a llama. I think you’re confusing Emperor’s New Groove with–PULL THE LEVER! Okay, I just added Teheran and dropped Matz. THAT’S the wrong lever…
Carlos Carrasco (NYM) vs CWS (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
Blegh. At least he got some whiffs? Because it’s the White Sox. Oh, right. BLEGGGH.
Alek Manoah (TOR) vs SD (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 92 pitches.
Those who watched the Alek Manoah breakdown video knew this was very much a possibility and hot dang, this was rough. Sure, he got squeezed a bit and the defense did NOT help, but still y’all. BUT STILL. I don’t want to touch Manoah at all right now.
Luke Weaver (CIN) vs SF (ND) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 61 pitches.
You know, Weaver sat two ticks up on his heater and changeup here. And? He lasted eight outs. With six strikeouts! EIGHT. OUTS. Okay, okay.
Anthony DeSclafani (SF) @ CIN (ND) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 37 pitches.
Annnnnnd let’s not start Tony Disco, okay? Cool.
Domingo Germán (NYY) @ LAA (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches.
27 whiffs and horrible ratios?! WHAT KIND OF BASEBALL GODS ARE THESE. Yes, the hook catalyzed plenty of that Gallows Pole, but the changeup was brilliant at 9/26 whiffs as well (well, save for two that hung over the plate), while the four-seamer was elevated. That dang Moniak messed him up tonight and ruined everything. HOW DARE HE.
Daniel Lynch (KC) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 77 pitches.
I still don’t know what Lynch’s best pitch is and that bothers me. Maybe it’s the slider? At least he spotted them decently well, but five overall whiffs should tell you that no pitcher would want that slider to be their #1 pitch. It’s all too much of a mess to me.
Tyler Wells (BAL) vs LAD (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 59 pitches.
Oh dear, you too? Wells’ low BABIP is unsustainable, even with the heavy flyball tendencies, and as Fast mentioned on the OTC podcast, the high HR totals were sure to be more than just solo shots eventually. Welp, we brush it off and go back to the Wells again when he faces the Rays. Yes, start him. He deserves a One Night Bland by now.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs MIN (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
After I was so jazzed about his sinkers last time out, Woo didn’t get them inside here…but they actually were solid offerings and allowed just one hit. The four-seamer was the culprit as many of his pitches landed in x-mLoc, while his cutter was middling, and sliders + changeups barely existed. What does that all mean? It means Woo’s heater didn’t do the work it normally does and it was a terrible evening. It could be the last one we see from him for a bit as the Mariners have hinted at limiting his innings at some point after the ASB. Please give him one more chance for redemption first, okay? Suitman whispers in my ear He gets the Jays next? Whoops, okay never mind, send him down now.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ KC (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 64 pitches.
Nooooooooo. On the plus side, the fastball is still over 95 mph and its command is very much legit. It’s those dang other pitches, like a blegh sinker, inconsistent breakers, and hanging changeups. How did you allow two triples on the same night?! The secondaries will improve, don’t worry. With Skubal’s heater cooking, he only needs decent complements to thrive in the second half. It’ll come.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 102 pitches.
Ohhhh dear. Keller’s success has felt a bit weird this season, but this outing looked like a pitcher searching for a way out. How? Because Mitch went 32% sliders – he normally focuses on sinkers/four-seamers/cutters. The breaker went just 3/33 whiffs, and I can feel your uneasiness as this is Keller’s third 4+ ER game in six starts. I’m not ready to jump ship – Keller has adjusted throughout this season – and this outing was just not his day. Let’s talk after his Padres start next.
Lucas Giolito (CWS) @ NYM (L) – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
Far too many pitchers are getting blown up in their first start back from the break. Did Giolito deserve this one? Not really, but his fastball command was definitely worse (near 50% strike rate is rough), even if the change and slider were constantly hitting their low locations. I wouldn’t read heavily into this and keep the course steady. It happens.
Zach Davies (ARI) @ ATL (ND) – 3.2 IP, 9 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 78 pitches.
Our expectations were rock bottom and somehow, this drilled into hot, gooey, MAG. MA. I can’t be the only one who sees lava and wants to touch it, right? It looks so dang appealing.
Game of the Day
Kenta Maeda vs. Luis Castillo – Both these arms can have incredible second halves. This should be fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)