Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Troy Melton (DET) vs ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Guess what y’all. Troy Melton is legit. His MLB debut was a tough time (don’t start MLB debuts!), but it was really just the first two frames until he settled down and displayed more of his ability. I was optimistic we’d see a better arm in his second start hosting the Diamondbacks and look what we got: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches (W). I was concerned the Chris Paddack trade would remove Melton, but it looks to be a response to Reese Olson’s shoulder injury that has him out for the season, leaving Melton’s rotation spot secure if the Tigers don’t add another arm by Thursday.
And you should grab him. Now.
Despite a four-seamer with terrible movement (13″ vert, 7.3″ run, blegh), the ball comes in at a flat 1.3 HAVAA with above-average extension at a blistering 97 mph. It’s backed by a traditional gyro slider with extra sweep than its contemporaries (-5″ horizontal is cool!), which isn’t always perfect (that 0-2 hanger to Eugenio was so lucky to be popped up), but will be a constant weapon. Those two offerings would make the typical package of fantasy-relevant young arms: Hard four-seamer, whiffable slider.
But that’s not Melton. He has a cutter at 91 mph that returned 83% strikes. A splitter that appeared the second time around against LHB for a pair of quick outs. A curveball to flip into the zone (he wants the hit to Corbin back in the first). And even a surprise sinker at seven feet of extension exclusively for RHB.
He has a full arsenal and throws strikes. 70% strikes on the day with an INCREDIBLE 3.4% NC Rate on all his pitches. For a rookie sitting 97 mph with a whiffable slider, that is absolutely brilliant. Sure, I wish the four-seamer had a little more vert, and I wish his slider was consistently 88/89 mph instead of 86/87 mph. Still, he’s going to regularly start for a winning team and has already displayed the ability to go seven frames in under 90 pitches. I wish he didn’t have to face the Angels and Phillies next, but I don’t think that’s a death sentence for him. They may be a grind given the low vert on the heater, but I want in for the final two months of the year.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Andre Pallante (STL) vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Look at that. PL Bot nailed this one, though how could it predict Koufax would be so generous? Because of the Marlins? Maybe. That slider had a 48% strike rate and his four-seamer plopped itself over the plate all game. Don’t trust it.
Bradley Blalock (COL) @ CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches.
Whoaaaa, you could argue this is the Gold Star with six shutout inningsand seven strikeouts in Cleveland, but we’ve given it to him before. The 94 mph heater at 17-18″ of vert held a 78% strike rate while the splitter was as good as you could hope for as he attacked the LHB lineup. So he commanded everything well? Not really but he threw them both in the zone roughly 60% of the time combined. Sometimes that’s all you need to do.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs TEX (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 6 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 75 pitches.
Six walks? I guess that’s your new trade, eh Jack? It definitely isn’t the sinker at a 48% strike rate, that’s for sure.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ CIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Once per week, yada yada yada. He’s great.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ ATH (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
Whoa, I did not expect this! The four-seamer and sinker had some phenomenal pitch separation and churned 13 outs in play between them while the slider and changeup were, uh, bad. Fine, there were some good sliders, but the changeup did not work at all and Castillo continues to defy my anxiety with his heaters…which were down to 94.7 mph in this one. I dunno, I’m still fearful of a dramatic decline on the horizon.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Look at ECab, continuing to raise his trade value in another start where his four-seamer was his least thrown offering. Watching him pitch doesn’t give you all the confidence as he battles his pitches to locate them constantly, but the results are results. The changeup really did work in this one at 36% CSW and 73% strikes at 23% usage, which is always good to see. We keep riding, especially if he gets dealt to a team with a better defense and a higher chance to get Wins. Wait, he got a LOSS in this one? GET HIM OUT OF HERE.
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 97 pitches.
That curveball y’all. It returned all twelve of his strikeouts. No wonder he had a Golden Goal. He is really something these days.
Brad Lord (WSN) @ HOU (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 59 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! The Astros aren’t the toughest, but that’s a Gold Star given my minimal expectations. His best asset is nearly 19″ of run and sub 5″ of vert on his 95 mph sinker, though he only threw 12 of them. He may want to do that more in the future, given its four outs in play. Just a thought. Anyway, don’t go after this. 1/17 whiffs on the slider (47% strikes) and questionable command do not make a good combo.
Davis Martin (CHW) vs PHI (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
He returned from IL last week and I didn’t see enough to jump on the train. Sadly, I’m not seeing enough here, either. He was a bit fortunate to come through on the cutters and changeups that happened to earn strikes, while the four-seamer overperformed a bit. I wouldn’t recommend this against the Angels next, but Martin could come through against the Guardians after.
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 96 pitches.
Yay, you got a Win, but he was Singled Out and with 1/36 four-seamer whiffs and 3/32 on the slider, you didn’t get much in the strikeout department. His four-seamer sat 94.9 mph (not 96+) and if you’re not scared by now, I don’t know what to tell you. He’s not the same guy.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ NYY (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
Look at that! Five frames! A Win! Meh ratios! There’s the Rasmussen we know and are okay with now. Yep, happiness is all relative, y’all. At least he’s at 81 pitches, eh?
JP Sears (ATH) vs SEA (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 96 pitches.
Remember last game? When he had the best command I’ve ever seen from Sears? Yeah, this wasn’t that. The new slowball went 36% strikes as this was a classic Sears Smattering (TM) with heaters and breakers conjoining in the upper half of the zone. Not really what we wanted to see and who knows what we get next time.
Richard Fitts (BOS) @ MIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 58 pitches.
Let’s review what we had here. 96/97 mph velocity. Nice! Curveballs generally down for a BSB to LHB. Sweet! Roughly 50% strikes across heaters, sliders, and sweepers to RHB. Wait what. I don’t quite get why he was pulled after just 58 pitches and I really wish the Sawx would let the kid get his footing in the rotation. I think there’s enough here to make it work. I’d start him against the Astros next if it’s clear he can go over 75 pitches.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
He was limited to four frames, but he did himself few favors with a 16% NC Rate on his slider and 58% strikes. I’m actually shocked the heater was fouled off 13/44 times (30% clip!) and there’s your problem. I’m still starting him regularly – this was the Cubs and he still gave you seven strikeouts, even if the ratios aren’t ideal. Yes, five frames is still inside his ceiling.
Slade Cecconi (CLE) vs COL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 98 pitches.
I wish it were a little better, but fine. I guess. No dub due to the Guardians without Clase blowing the game in the ninth. Boy, I feel for them dealing with The Slade Brigade at their door. He gets the Mets next and I really hope this is enough for you to consider other options. But it’s the White Sox after! Is Slade really worth stashing until August 10th?
Chase Burns (CIN) vs LAD (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ten strikeouts against the Dodgers? Yeah, that’s cool with me, and it’s now three straight games hitting the mark (sweeeeet). He couldn’t complete the sixth and was fortunate neither of his two inherited runners scored to keep this a Philly, while both the four-seamer and slider returned 8+ whiffs (12 on the heater! That’s new). He really is a Jones/Strider/Greene type.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs BOS (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
The matchup seemed fine on paper, but it’s SWR, who doesn’t normally go long and doesn’t have a strong arsenal. You know better.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs TBR (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
Well this isn’t what I expected. Cam’s four-seamer is still fantastic – 98 mph average velo (it hasn’t gone down?!) with 13/62 whiffs and 32% CSW – but it was featured nearly 70% of the time as his secondaries took a major backseat. My praise for Cam was like Melton’s in that he had a trio of breakers that he could throw for strikes and use consistently. He did throw them for strikes (all three at 60% or higher!), but they weren’t spotted well and were smacked for hits – five allowed on 23 curves + sliders + sweepers thrown. Come on, Schlittler, you can find those breakers and get them low. It’s the last piece of the puzzle before leaping into ZOMG territory. The fact that he had a 67% strike rate and four walks is awfully strange and something you normally see more with rookies than vets – he just didn’t execute when he needed to. It’ll get there. Probably.
Mitch Keller (PIT) @ SFG (ND) – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 73 pitches.
Jeeeeeez, they let Keller throw 73 pitches in two innings? That can’t be good. He gets Coors next if he’s still on the squad and I’m not interested. I don’t see anything particularly good with Keller, sadly.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ CHW (L) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
Welp, HRs got to him. A pair of two-run shots and that’s your ball game. Look at baseball, showing us the beauty and the beast in back-to-back starts. A tale as old as time…
Carson Whisenhunt (SFG) vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
We don’t start MLB debuts, though Whisenhunt didn’t have the profile of a prospect arm to chase prior to this start. He’s a southpaw with a 92 mph heater (labeled a sinker but at 17″ of vert…) and a decent changeup, the latter of which failed to get low enough to avoid damage in the first and second frames. There’s a chance he turns into a Toby arm to stream over time, but that usually comes after plenty of experience in the majors. We also saw Carson Seymour for three frames in relief, who fired 96/97 mph sinkers and four-seamers with empty velocity (average or poor extension, vert, run, HAVAA) and a standard 87/88 mph gyro slider. He’s not a guy to go after either.
Zach Eflin (BAL) vs TOR (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 79 pitches.
Yeah yeah yeah, it was the Jays. It also had literally the worst called ball I have ever seen. Eflin’s attack to LHB was absurdly good, save for some sinkers over the plate (the HR ball was a good curve!) and after he gets the Cubs, you can count me in. Maybe even the Cubs, too, for your deeper leagues.
Rich Hill (KCR) vs ATL (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 6 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Ah. Unfortunately, this is more believable than his first outing. Rich isn’t the Hill to die on.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 95 pitches.
Sure, it was a “revenge game” for Erod, but this wasn’t the one to stream him for. Good to see the changeup living where it should to RHB, and we’ll be sure to start him after Sacré Verde when he hosts Rockie Road.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ LAA (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna serve a Careful, Icarus with three runs in the sixth. We saw more pitches leak over the middle of the plate than usual and the Angels punished him for it. The slider was shockingly inconsistent for an abysmal 52% strike rate to RHB (one of the lowest I’ve seen from deGrom), and we have to expect better moving forward.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
Oh no. Boyd’s four-seamer command was terrible for the first time this year, missing inside far too much against RHB for a 43% strike rate and 14% NC Rate (super rare for him) and when it did find the zone, it produced the sole HR of his night. We shake this off and expect a recovery – after all, he was sitting 94 mph, not 92/93.
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
We can’t keep doing this, Nick. Jeeeeez, this is rough. The five walks are an issue, but really? A 3-2 four-seamer up-and-away with the bases loaded and two outs left the yard for a grand slam on his final pitch of the game. Yes, he was that close to escaping five frames with just 1 ER. And a 1.80 WHIP. That too. The fact that he still gets so many strikeouts should tell you how this has been the season of absurdity from Cease, and I’m personally still starting him. OH COME ON. I know. Imagine if he were dropped, would you pick him up and give it a chance? Yes. THEN WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE?!
Frankie Montas Jr. (NYM) @ SDP (ND) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.
Womp womp. This was some terrible command to LHB while the splitter went 5/18 strikes. That’s a 28% clip. Yeesh. At least it’s the Giants next and that should be better if you need a Win on a desperate Sunday.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ BAL (L) – 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 69 pitches.
Oh. I initially didn’t have Bassitt on The List in my first pass before thinking, “Wait, he’s a good Win chance arm now, we have to let him fly against the Orioles!” The gut KNEW. Who, Vlad? I’m sure he did. He gets the Royals in Toronto next, which is fine, but the Dodgers are after. Don’t feel like you have to hold here.
Game of the Day
Joe Boyle vs. Max Fried – Boyle is back in the rotation + I want to see Fried look like a stud again.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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