Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
Another start, another strong outing for Ryne Nelson. The Royals did their best to attack his heater but were fruitless until their first hit in the sixth, returning a 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches (W) for Nelson in the end. This is starting to feel a bit real, doesn’t it?
Once again, it was the four-seamer doing nearly all the work at 74% usage and 32% CSW. The Royals were able to get to the pitch in the sixth frame for the sole run (one strike away from just one baserunner that instead turned into three hard hit balls in a row for a run and a sliding catch to end the inning) after struggling to make good contact for five innings. Just 3/60 whiffs with a whole lot of foul balls and called strikes, which once again illuminates the sole need for Nelson: Secondaries he trusts.
They aren’t bad pitches. The curve, cutter, and slider are all helpful and he’s rarely missing poorly with them. It’s simply that he doesn’t locate them down effectively to BSB, while lacking the trust in big situations. That fastball is so good that it can feel as though Nelson shouldn’t give hitters a chance with anything else, and yet, without them, he is susceptible to big innings where batters have finally locked down the heater.
With his four-seamer’s 20″ of vert (without a steep VAA!) at 96/97 mph and seven feet of extension, Nelson can put on the same show he put on in the second half of last season, even if the trio of breakers aren’t in lock-step. This was a game of 73% zone rate, y’all. He’s forcing batters to do something with the heater and they can’t. I’m down to trust that against the Angels before the ASB and likely through July as well. Go add him.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs PIT (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Awwwww yeah. That’s Castillo taking full advantage of Blame it on the Pirates, even though Pittsburgh has been a bit better than usual across the last few weeks. Castillo’s slider terrorized LHB, while the pair of fastballs returned six of those eight strikeouts. His sinker to RHB was fantastic on the inner half at nearly 20″ of run and a near 80% strike rate with 0/23 hits allowed. Like an Asimov fan putting down his favorite book, that’s a good foundation. Four-seamers stayed elevated to LHB and the changeup…well that went 2/7 strikes. I’m still cautious for the second half of Castillo, but the slider performance with great overall fastball command is a pleasant sight. Here’s to hoping that sticks.
Casey Mize (DET) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.
The Guardians shoved a ton of LHB toward Mize as we expected and he came through beautifully. We saw less vert on Mize’s heater, but the splitter put in a ton of hours as it sat down-and-in-town for the four-seamer to succeed upstairs. The slider and curve were excellent at 15/20 strikes as free real estate and that’s your ball game. Mize is a Holly and that’s great.
Mike Burrows (PIT) @ SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
Ayyyy, look at this! Burrows came through for a full five frames of production, though it’s a Dusty Donut without a dub and a 1.60 WHIP along the way. But he earned the King Cole! Wow. 32% CSW took the crown with 30 starters is a fortunate coronation. He did it as you’d expect – the changeup obliterating LHB for 47% CSW and 7/17 whiffs. If Burrows becomes a legit fantasy relevant arm, it’ll be due to the slowball, though there’s still work to be done against RHB with a chaotic fastball/slider pair. Unless he’s getting a LHB-exclusive lineup, I wouldn’t consider Burrows, and even then, he’s just a desperate streamer. That changeup isn’t always there.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs HOU (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 31 pitches.
The sweeper and slider got punchouts while the Astros couldn’t quite get the barrel on his heater, fouling off 9/14 thrown. Yes, that’s an absurdly high rate. Anyway, Justin Wrobleski followed and it didn’t go as well as we wanted it to with a final line of 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 Pitches. He was bamboozled in his opening frame of the third with two pitches rarely hit into play returning doubles + a pair of weak singles included in the ridiculousness. What I’m trying to tell you is Wrobo pitched far better than the line and I don’t know what Koufax is up to. We needed you. He’s still at 96/97 mph on the heater with a 1.6 HAVAA and the cutter, slider, and curve are all looking fantastic – much better than I normally see from Wrobo. I’m still in, more than Casper.
Cole Sands (MIN) vs TBR (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 19 pitches.
This was an opener for Travis Adams, who made his MLB debut and returned 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 K – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 68 Pitches. It’s a below average four-seamer with a whole lot of meh to support it, sadly.
Logan Allen (CLE) vs DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Oh dang that’s a Gold Star for Allen! The changeup was fortunate to allow just one hit despite a lot of hard contact to RHB, with a 9/21 foul ball rate that had us exhale often. His four-seamer lived generally upstairs with the cutter and sweepers were thrust over the plate with some great ones down-and-gloveside. The whole start made me anxious and suddenly it was the sixth and Allen only had one run to his name. No thank you.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
He can’t be stopped. It was a stroll down the Reds Carpet. Yeah, I know. He also had impeccable changeup and cutter command, too. What a stud run this has been.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ ATH (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna mostly ace. While we’re happy with this (stupid WHIP), Webb’s sweeper and cutter have taken a step back over the last few weeks, creating a much larger focus on the changeup than we saw in the opening two months. My adoration for Webb has been his wider arsenal and seeing him once again go sinker/change + 9/19 strikes on his sweeper (sub 50%!) isn’t ideal. He’ll get it back, right?
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
Atta boy Corbin! Production across the board, even if just a trio of whiffs. Hmmm, how bad is the San Diego offense these days? Anyway, don’t trust it, of course, but I’m happy for Patty C.
Jonathan Cannon (CHW) @ COL (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 78 pitches.
As much as I want to fire the Cannons, this was a Dusty Donut with a near 2.00 WHIP and just one strikeout – HAISTBMBWT?! Let’s not dilute the meaning of the overture, alright? Two whiffs, y’all. TWO.
Walker Buehler (BOS) @ WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
What did we get this time in this Dusty Donut? A whole bunch of curveballs down to LHB that returned 43% strikes across 28% usage (yikes), mixed with cutters and four-seamers that fortunately picked up the slack with a near 80% strike rate across 52 thrown. I can see the heater and cutter working in tandem well, but he’s not nailing the edges enough to make us believe this will last. I’m still out y’all.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.
Blegh. It was the Cubs, after all, and Liberatore nibbled more than usual to make sure only two runs crossed the board. I respect it, but a 22% NC Rate on the heater is not what we normally see. The slider down-and-in to RHB was pretty dang cool, though, and I hope that sticks for the future. 71% strikes and 0/17 hits against RHB is something we want to see every time out.
Chad Patrick (MIL) @ MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 72 pitches.
We’ll take it, even if it’s a bit boring. Strange to see more sinkers than cutters (barely) and he had nothing else in the tank to throw with confidence. That cutter messes with hitters with 13″ of vert and -2″ horizontal – an odd movement profile at 87/88 mph, especially merged with the 16″ of run on the 94 mph sinker and 17″ vert and 9″ run on the four-seamer. It’s strange and works. Ish. Can’t say he’s a must hold against the LHB-focused Nationals – that cutter does better against RHB.
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.
Once again, like a fourth grader attempting their first simile, the sore thumb stuck out like a sore thumb. The cutter and fellow breakers were rad, though, and all we can do is hope he’s healthy after his next start to take advantage of a possible date against the Giants after the break. I wouldn’t hold onto Scherzer.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) vs MIL (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 71 pitches.
Six strikeouts, eh? Welp, he got pulled with the bases loaded and was fortunate to not get three more runs tacked onto his line. You should always have a raised eyebrow when you see equal whiffs to strikeouts.
Drew Pomeranz (CHC) vs STL (ND) – 0.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 25 pitches.
He opened for Chris Flexen who was kinda at the beach with 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 64 Pitches. You already know this isn’t the thing to chase. I wonder who the Cubs will get at the deadline…
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
That’s a Gallows Pole for Lodolo with a Bailey Special of a line, which is a term I feel weird using given Ober’s decline this season. I cannot express my joy to see Lodolo embrace the changeup in full, which was stupid good here for 8/24 whiffs and nearly 80% strikes, while his curve was no slouch at 7/19 whiffs of its own. If only he didn’t allow two HRs on fastballs, this would have been electric. I’m a fan, y’all.
Taj Bradley (TBR) @ MIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
That’s a Philly on a day Bradley had a sub 10% NC Rate while avoiding the heart of the plate more than usual. That’s kinda cool…? Still chaos, but oddly organized in his favor. And it still didn’t help. Yeah, fair.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ TOR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 82 pitches.
How do you spell Kochanowicz? With one K. That’s another HAISTBMBWT?! as I’ll continue to cheer the Jack of No Trade on to find the sinker command of last season. It was fun watching a pitcher be productive in the league just with spotted sinkers at 95/96 mph, you know?
Aaron Bummer (ATL) vs BAL (ND) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 52 pitches.
Bullpen game here for Atlanta with Dodd going two innings and change as well. Nothing to see here, y’all. Bummer. Yeah, that’s the opener. Who this blurb is for. Are you missing something?
Framber Valdez (HOU) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna have one of those nights where the curve went 20% NC Rate for 56% strikes and 4/25 whiffs. That meant more changeups (which were actually pretty good!) and more hard contact than usual on the sinker. And when he did throw those curves for strikes? Crushed. Two longballs for three runs. It’s the maddening element of Framber that we just have to accept and hope we don’t see much of it.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) vs BOS (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
There was hope for this to be a decent stream as the Red Sox are routinely worse on the road. He was Singled Out a bit, though his BSB approach had hiccups against RHB with too many pitches down the pipe, while the fastball and slider were pretty dang easy for LHB to swat. Don’t trust the fella. Please.
Frankie Montas Jr. (NYM) vs NYY (W) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 77 pitches.
Huh. A Dusty Donut from Montas with a sub 1.00 WHIP and a dub to go with a poor ERA and just two punchouts. The splitter and slider worked well to generate outs and strikes kinda like the old days (just 4/31 whiffs, though) and props to him for surviving long enough to get the Win, albeit serving a Philly in the end. There’s some temptation to chase another Win against the Royals up next, but I don’t like the heater, cutter, and sinker enough to do that, nor do I trust the splitter and slider to both be at their best.
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ ARI (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.
May the fours be with him. Two runs in the third + a Careful, Icarus after walking the first two batters for his final two runs ruined what felt close to a strong outing for Wacha. It’s not every game we get 16 whiffs, but it was a day where the Sneks were patient on the heater and slider and aggressive on the changeup, and dems the breaks. It wasn’t the best matchup and I’m iffy to start Wacha against the Mets up next.
Luis Severino (ATH) vs SFG (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
It’s no fun pitching in Sacré Verde, even against the Giants. Throw in an arsenal that is highly suspect, and you have Severino: A pitcher to avoid in 12-teamers.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ ATL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
Ah, the Dean Werewolf is showing his fur once again. He struggled to find strikes with anything but his sinker, which was forced to go 84% strikes and surprisingly allowed just two hits on the day. Too bad everything else wasn’t helpful in the slightest, save for a few fun splitters.
Germán Márquez (COL) vs CHW (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
Annnnd there’s the fun ERA stretch coming to a close. We had some good times, didn’t we? We all can be dreamers…
Stephen Kolek (SDP) vs TEX (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 83 pitches.
Womp womp. I’ve labeled him as a guy who throws strikes and to see him hold just a 60% clip against a meh offense didn’t give him much of a chance. Welp, see ya later.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna get bamboozled for a grand-slam in the first inning, then a three-run shot in the fifth. On a positive side, the sinker is great against LHB and I love how he’s using it on the inner half. However, 50% strikes on both sliders and changeups to RHB ain’t it. It’s been a little rougher as of late, but it should be just a blip.
Game of the Day
Chase Burns vs. Zack Wheeler – So many games to watch today on ace day (Skenes vs Kirby, too!) + Woodruff returning and Ogasawara making his debut, but look at this matchup. That’s joy.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
