Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Dance Gavin, Dance!

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Gavin Williams (CLE) @ DET (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.

It was a disappointing season debut for Gavin Williams, but his follow-up outing was far more of what we wanted in a date with the Tigers: 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches. He’s a bit different than last year and if this is the guy we see each day, I’m excited.

He’s turned into a four-seamer/curve arm with a supporting cutter that lands in the zone constantly. Last year, that hook returned a 50% strike rate, but here, it was glorious. 77% strikes as it fell to the bottom of the zone and under consistently, relying on the foundation of cutters and four-seamers sitting in the zone above it.

That heater is also looking like the pitch that was promised. Williams gassed it up to 97.5 mph on average, peaking just over 99 mph, and has the elite extension over seven feet that makes him difficult to demolish. He could still do better placing it upstairs and not over the heart of the plate or well outside it, but that pitch will be the anchor of his approach. Expect it to be there each time out.

We waited months for Williams to return in full. It’s no lock he’ll have that curveball feel indefinitely, but at least he’s showing his potential in just his second start of the year. Let’s hope for more of the same against the Rays.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:

 

Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 106 pitches.

Hahahahaha I’ve been throwing my hands up trying to understand this man. If someone can do pitch level analysis on Abbott and give me a true breakdown of how this works and is believable, I’d love to see it. However, I’m not looking for overall results numbers – y’all know that isn’t how I work. In this start? Well this was actually legit believable. Wait what. Yeah, he spotted four-seamers upstairs and armside while his sweeper was gorgeous down-and-gloveside. That’s how you earn a legit Gallows Pole. If only I could believe he’d do that every start. Remember, he had 10 walks across his last two starts. Remember, he gets the Marlins next. OKAY FINE.

Keider Montero (DET) vs CLE (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 73 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! A King Cole for Montero, rooted in 40% CSW curve + a low changeup + four-seamer that pummeled the strike zone and forced the Guardians to do something about it. Narrator: They didn’t. I’m not the biggest believer in Montero’s 95 mph heater – it’s relatively average in Fan 4+ (predictive whiff rate based on velo and shape), but I dig its control and if the secondaries can be solid enough moving forward (like that 9/10 strike rate curve!), he can replicate this. I wish he had a devastating whiff pitch, though.

Miles Mikolas (STL) @ WSN (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.

A whole lot of strikes. It’s a gamble every time and this is one of the best outcomes you could hope for. I wouldn’t give this a shot against the Cubs.

Mitchell Parker (WSN) vs STL (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.

The slider! It’s pretty fun watching Parker as each of his three secondaries can show up on a given day. And after seeing a lot of his curveball and splitter take center stage, the slider went 39% CSW across 25% usage, 50% more than the other secondaries combined. He really has turned into a reliable Toby for 12-teamers and a part of me feels like you hold him for the Brewers and beyond. Another part says “Why not stream with so many options out there?” It’s a tough call.

Ryan Feltner (COL) @ CIN (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! You get the Gold Star today as I had zero expectations for Feltner to actually come through in an outing, though so many arms had a good case on Monday. This wasn’t the heater that got me intrigued earlier in the year, but the changeup getting involved with a surprising number of sinker whiffs…albeit with a horrendous strike rate on the pitch. What does this all mean? I’m sorry. I got distracted! Ahem. COL story, bro. Much better.

Yilber Diaz (ARI) vs ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! (Yes, a third time!) It was an MLB debut with the sole blemish being a longball on a 1-2 count to Riley with a four-seamer missing its spot inside. I’m not sold here as it was mostly four-seamers with sliders and curveballs not acting as consistent breakers, though we’ve seen the offerings perform better in the minors. In addition, the four-seamer comes with horrible extension and average iVB, though its attack angle was decent and the velocity should settle around 95 mph after the MLB debut adrenaline subdues. I’m not ready to jump in and I’ll be watching the Jays start closely.

Mitch Keller (PIT) vs NYM (W) – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 107 pitches.

It was an outing of sweepers and sliders getting strikes while the four-seamers and sinkers didn’t get burned inside the zone. The ride continues, we keep going with Keller, and he should be concluding a strong first half with the CrySox up next.

Chris Flexen (CHW) vs MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.

It’s not quite Flexen at the Beach, but that’s a Quality Start and a solid ERA, making him Flexen on the boardwalk. Please land here, I’VE GOT A HOTEL. He’s really doing a good job of locating his arsenal around the zone and there’s deep league value against the Pirates up next. A desperate Sunday stream.

Christian Scott (NYM) @ PIT (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 77 pitches.

We’ll take this from Scott. The sweeper wasn’t on point with a sub 50% strike rate, but the only blemish was a longball from Cruz and his heater was a strong offering. There’s another gear to unlock, of course.

Chris Paddack (MIN) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches.

Ayyy not bad! The CrySox obliged on Paddack’s changeup just out of the zone, but denied his slider, while the curve and heater were decent in the zone. I’m still not much of a believer here at under 94 mph on the heater, but at least he located it well. I’d be cautious against the Giants.

Bryce Elder (ATL) @ ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 76 pitches.

Whoa whoa whoa, Elder?! And look at that, a fresh HAISTBMBWT?! to remind you that he isn’t the guy you remember from the first half of 2023. This was to give their starters an extra day of rest and I’d expect Elder to head back to the minors now. Welp, see ya later.

Jon Gray (TEX) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.

When Gray is going 60% four-seamers, you know he’s not at his best. I think he’s thrilled to escape without more damage here and I don’t see a reason to hold onto Gray at the moment. He’s not locked in and gets the Astros next and that’s no fun.

Davis Daniel (LAA) vs TEX (ND) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 61 pitches.

Yiiiikes. The four-seamer shape is great and there is a decent mix of secondaries, but the velocity isn’t there and the Rangers bamboozled the fella on everything inside the zone. He’s a deep streaming play against poor offenses and the Rangers aren’t that right now.

 

Game of the Day

 

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Blake Snell – I want to watch Kikuchi domination + see if Snell can begin his redemption tour.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)