Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Dustin May (BOS) @ HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
Back in February, I named Dustin May as one of my biggest sleepers for the season ahead and it didn’t quite work out as planned (7 ER against the Cubs in late April was the dagger). His velocity dropped significantly from 97 mph to 94/95 mph, his command of the sinker and sweeper was questionable, and he failed to expand his arsenal as a member of the Dodgers.
But then he was traded to the Red Sox in one of the wildest deals of the deadline (he’s a FA in November!) and his second start for his new crew returned one of the most promising performances of the season: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches (W). It’s not just the line itself that has me leaning forward in my seat, it’s how he got there.
There are so many new elements of this game. All four pitches were thrown at least 20% of the time. He raised his arm angle to lessen the flat-attack angle of his four-seamer (1.4 HAVAA to 1.1 HAVAA), but gained a tick of velo to both heaters in the process while maintaining his sinker’s horizontal break. That mechanical shift may have been why all four pitches carried a 67% strike rate or better. It also may be why May was able to locate more consistently than usual. The sweeper was away and sinkers stayed on the inner half to RHB with cutters filling to zone for 43% CSW + the surprise heater upstairs (and some mistakes lower for two hits) that returned a pair of strikeouts. This was the best attack to RHB I’ve seen from May all season.
I’m still a little concerned about his attack to LHB. The sweeper is still the main focus at 50% usage and while it returned 4/15 whiffs without a hit, I saw far too many hittable offerings here. The pitch that should be a staple to LHB is the cutter, but it was thrown just four times as May is still figuring the 91 mph pitch out. Here’s to hoping he figures that one out moving forward.
So should you be Dustin off the add button of May on the waiver wire? I’d personally wait. The Orioles are next, who are sure to send a fair number of LHB to the dish, while the Yankees come shortly after. However, the Pirates are a start I’d circle, especially if his LHB approach improves and the gains are still present in the two starts prior.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ STL (W) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
We’ve seen Freeland have momentary success when outside of Coors and against weak lineups, especially when Koufax insists it’s time to give the Colorado faithful a break. What a fun Birthday Party, I heard the cake with a giant gold Gold Star on it was great.
George Kirby (SEA) @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 87 pitches.
The BSB is alive and well to LHB, and he’s not giving in nearly as much as he used to against RHB. That led to a King Cole, fitting for Kirby’s coronation to AGA. It’s time?! Aces. Gonna. Ace.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs TBR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
Oh baby, this was lovely. The slider messed up many for 8/33 whiffs while the cutter and four-seamer teased batters with 52% strikes on the fastball and 83% on the cutter. It’s hard to pull the trigger when they look so alike with Lopez’s cross-body arm action from the left side paired with over seven feet of extension. And that’s ignoring the efficient 80% strike changeup, too. He’s starting to believe. The matchups are strong moving forward, too, which means we’re holding Lopez for a few weeks. Let’s do this.
Brady Singer (CIN) vs PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 71 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! The slider was deadly to LHB down-and-in while the sinker nailed the edges with ease. This was awesome. It’s how you go six strikeouts in six frames at just 71 pitches – dope command. If only Singer would tell us when he would have the feel. The Angels + Dodgers are up next and I kinda want to try it against the Angels at least given their RHB-lineup (sinker/slider guys love facing them), but that’s up to you. Singer still has HIPSTER tendencies, remember.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 89 pitches.
I raised Peralta on The List this week and I may have to push him up into the third tier. He hasn’t fallen off in the way he has in previous years and look at this one – 44% CSW on the four-seamer with 11/44 whiffs on breaking balls. That’s HOT.
José Berríos (TOR) vs CHC (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
I should have known better. The man is The Great Undulator, meaning the opponent has no influence. The curveball was legit here with sinkers and changeups rolling up outs (with some great fortune on the sinker) + the Cubs failed to take advantage of his four-seamer, fouling it off instead of walloping it in play. He is what he is.
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs SEA (L) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 101 pitches.
Kremer, you didn’t tell me it was a full moon last night! I had too much on my back. Yeah, that was fur ya Dean Werewolf. The splitter was awesome at 10/31 whiffs, which, you know, is a super volatile pitch and can’t be relied upon.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
I took away your AGA tag and I’m thrilled to see you respond as you should. Ah yes, Nick. The center of the universe. FINALLY SOMEONE SEE’S IT. On the real, I wish the changeup feel were better (39% strikes on 13 thrown is blegh), but the four-seamer and slider combo cooked and that’s cool with me.
Yoendrys Gómez (CHW) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Hey this was pretty cool. Gómez has an array of breakers, cataloged as a cutter, slider, and curve, but I see them as an 88/89 mph slider, 83 mph sweeper, and 81/82 mph curve. The slider and curve returned 9/35 whiffs, while the sweeper looked pretty and generally stayed away from RHB with some annoying misses along the way. There is a glaring problem, though. His fastballs. The four-seamer is below average with 93/94 mph velocity and deadzone movement, while the sinker was rarely used to RHB, and likely had some as misclassified changeups when thrown to LHB (those were 90 mph vs. the 93/94 mph against RHB). The full package was a surprise to the Tigers and explains the successes here, but his history of high walk rates (we saw some bad mistakes on heaters here) merged with the poor heaters and a lack of rotation spot makes him someone to keep off your radar for now. I’ll let you know if there’s a reason to jump back in.
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ayyyy it was serviceable! But no Win. A 1.20 WHIP. Three strikeouts. Yeaaaaah. That’s not great. But the slider worked, right? Uhhhh, eight thrown for 9% usage with 25% CSW and 50% strikes. SERENITY NOW!
Nestor Cortes (SDP) @ SFG (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.
Oh heeeeeyyyy. The four-seamer was at just 90 mph (we want 91/92 mph) and didn’t induce a single chase, but still went 65% strikes (thanks blue) and the cutter + changeup (remember he was working on that?!) were great, especially the slowball and its 5/11 whiffs. He’ll get the Giants a second time and I think I’m down for that, but the matchups get tougher after and it may not be the best option among many. Go for J Lo or Schlittler or Zebby or Sheehan instead.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs WSN (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 79 pitches.
Not the best, but the changeup did its job to LHB and the four-seamer wasn’t touched. Too bad nothing else was helping the cause, but whatareyagonnado. Enjoy the dub.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Okay. So. Those walks. YEAH MAN, WHAT GIVES?! Whoa whoa whoa, no need to come in so hot. My b, but seriously. It was his four-seamer going 54% strikes with a 15% NC Rate, while his curve was the biggest support piece and it went…50% strikes at a 21% NC Rate. Oooof. But good news! Extension is still elite at 7.3 feet with a stellar 1.5 HAVAA and the cutter + sweeper are looking dope. I’m still in on this one – it’s just two games removed from the IL! – and note how hard he is to square up, even with the volatility. He has a decent schedule ahead and the Astros will be looking at him for regular starts. I’m in.
Logan Allen (CLE) vs MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
Yikes. Allen, you can’t go 42% strikes on 43 combined sweepers and changeups. That just doesn’t work. It did, though. 2 ER! Huh. Fair. BUT STILL. I’d very much prefer not to roll with Allen against Atlanta next, though if you need volume, they certainly let him go longer than others.
Anthony DeSclafani (ARI) @ TEX (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 52 pitches.
And now he’s hit the IL with thumb soreness. I can still dance without my thumb. I know man. I know. Don’t let them take the boogie out of ya.
Janson Junk (MIA) @ CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
With low strike rates on both the slider and definitely the sweeper, Janson wasn’t the JunkBaller against Cleveland, given y’all nothing of value. You shouldn’t go after him against LHB-lineups, let alone much in general.
Victor Mederos (LAA) vs LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches.
He’s an interesting one with a low arm-angle that causes 19-20″ of horizontal run on his sinker and even more interesting is how his slider and sweeper both have more vert than the heater. I dislike the low strike rate on the sinker at just 56%, though, and this isn’t the kind of pitcher to chase.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs COL (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 80 pitches.
Oh dear. A 27% NC Rate on the curveball and changeup is all you need to know. This was Rockie Road, dangit! Just get the thing over the plate and you’re golden. Yeeeeeesh. I really wouldn’t hold Liberatore.
Shane Baz (TBR) @ ATH (L) – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
That fourth inning was a rough one to watch from Baz as he was punished for a fair number of mistake pitches for a trio of runs, but otherwise, this start was great. Well, the four-seamer needs to be a little higher and has just 15″ of vert with 6.4 feet of extension…but the curve was generally down and the cutter was electric at 81% strikes with 34% usage and a 22% SwStr rate. Why can’t you just have everything working in tandem?! I’m still out for one more against the Yankees, but then back in for the Guardians, Nationals, and Guardians due to that cutter that should work well against all the LHB.
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs SDP (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 113 pitches.
Aces gonna…balk in a run and lose the PQS. Ouch. He lost the feel for changeups and sliders + 50% strikes on the curve isn’t what we want, either, making the four-seamer do all the work, which can be okay at times but 66% usage?! That’s not the Ray we want. It was rough watching him struggle with secondaries and allow a two-run shot off the rare slide piece to a RHB, but don’t worry, he should get the feel back shortly.
Javier Assad (CHC) @ TOR (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
Oh hey, you’re back! And it’s stupid hard to deal with the Jays in Toronto. I’m not seeing anything exciting here from Assad to warrant a pickup, but then again, I never saw anything interesting in Assad when he did well. Up to you if you want to chance it.
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ MIL (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna be super nice and help Wheeler’s case for a Cy Young. What a nice guy. Whatareyagonnado.
Travis Adams (MIN) @ NYY (L) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
Yeaaaaah, can y’all please call up Mick Abel already? K thx.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ KCR (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 87 pitches.
I just wanted your slider to be cool to RHB, but nah, he threw just eight of them for 13% usage and returned only four strikes. Sigh. Maybe next year.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
Sheehan got bamboozled a bit in the first and then settled down. He wasn’t able to put away batters as well as he normally does and the slider, while holding a great CSW due to called strikes, wasn’t landing down-and-away to tempt batters for whiffs. I still love the skills and after a date in Coors, his schedule is gorgeous for a while. I’m holding.
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ CHW (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches.
This was just so dumb. Flaherty went four scoreless, then the fifth saw him get to two strikes on each of the first five batters, four return super lucky hits, then the sixth batter popped a ball into shallow right for another hit at 0-1 before getting the hook, where both inherited runners scored. It was ridiculous, y’all. He earned a Gallows Pole AND DESERVED SO MUCH BETTER. Don’t drop him. Please, don’t.
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs ATL (ND) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 85 pitches.
So, uh, why are we still rostering The Adobe? He’s supposed to be limited but the Mets can’t really afford to, so fine, he goes 85 pitches and can’t find the zone. It’s just not worth it, y’all. His home has crumbled from the storms.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) @ CIN (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 92 pitches.
This was a Careful, Icarus with three runs in the sixth ruining a potential PQS, though I should mention that he wasn’t as precise with his arsenal per usual. Donut command on his sinker that returned four hits and a horrible 48% strike rate, while the four-seamer was blasted more than usual as well. So it goes, he’s done enough to warrant a hold past this blowup, of course.
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ NYM (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.
This was awful. Strider’s four-seamer, despite locating upstairs beautifully to LHB, returned 1/41 whiffs on the 96 mph pitch as its deadzone movement remains. While there was little damage done to the pitch by LHB, he threw two meatballs laced with spindly nightmares that left the yard for four total runs. And yes, there was a three-run shot to Nimmo that turned this game into a proper thrashing, but it’s that heater’s inability to overwhelm when not delicately spotted that has destroyed his season. Looking ahead, the Guardians are next that I want to say will be fine given his better fastball feel to LHB than RHB, but then again, when Strider has thrived this year, it’s when he’s obliterated RHB with sliders down-and-away. Sidenote: That slider hasn’t been nearly as good the last few weeks. After a date in Cleveland, he’ll get the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs and…uh…it might be time to move on from Strider. No way. Yeah…
Game of the Day
Eury Pérez vs. Gavin Williams – How could this not be the PL special? Because Greene is returning against Sánchez. Okay fine. BOTH.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
