Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: The Monty Disco

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Jordan Montgomery (ARI) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches.

This was an important start for Jordan Montgomery. With Arizona’s rotation fully healthy, the crew wants to avoid a six-man rotation and The Bear was potentially the odd-man out if he couldn’t come through against Rockie Road.

He did. 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches was the final line as he secured a Win, flexing whiffs on all four pitches, including ten on his fastballs (four in his first two batters) and 60%+ strike rates on each of his pitches (fine, 59% on his four-seamer). It certainly suggests that the Neckbeard approach is in full swing and The Bear can be trusted again.

…or maybe not. This was Rockie Road and I was shocked at the swings I saw at his heaters. His four-seamer returned a 100% ICR and a 3.56 PLV (though the latter was influenced by 0.00 marks on some non-competitive heaters) and many changeups made me uncomfortable as they floated into the zone when they should have been chase pitches instead.

It certainly was better than what we’ve seen from Monty prior and with the Marlins next, I’d expect him to produce for fantasy squads again. However, the Diamondbacks are keeping Ryne Nelson in the rotation for at least one more spin and we may see The Bear return to hibernation if he can’t produce there. We’re not out of the woods yet.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:

 

Bryan Woo (SEA) @ DET (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 85 pitches.

THE WHISTLES GO WOO WOOOOOOOOO. Ignoring the sinker that sat over the plate, the four-seamer + trio of secondaries executed a glorious BSB, though the secondaries need to get a little further down to raise his strikeout numbers a touch as they went just 4/34 whiffs between them. Still, he’s stretched out, dominating with his four-seamer at 95 mph (still elite HAVAA at 1.8 and spotting it properly), and succeeded away from Seattle. The real test is ahead with the Dodgers looming in Los Angeles. GO GET EM BRYAN.

David Peterson (NYM) vs OAK (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.

This wasn’t the BSB I saw last time with a ton of low sinkers (it worked…? Absurdly fortunate BABIP at 10/11 outs, though) and poor changeups, but the four-seamer was effectively upstairs and I saw some lovely curves and sliders in the mix. It’s a Blame it on the Athletics and I’m terrified of a start against the Orioles. If the sinker is better located + he keeps all secondaries down (I’m looking at you, slowball), then he can certainly pull through in Citi Field, but I’d hate to spin that wheel.

Ronel Blanco (HOU) @ TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 73 pitches.

Good ole Blame it on the Rays, with Blanco going through a bit of a rough stretch with more ICR and fewer whiffs on his slider and change. This one showed promise with his curve (7/12 strikes and three whiffs), though the slider wasn’t nearly the foundational offering we saw previously. I’m gonna stop breaking down this one – he’s still great and the curve may be a nice addition to help deal with his rising ICR marks.

Frankie Montas (MIL) vs LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 102 pitches.

Wait, this worked? Wow. Ummm. Wow. he sat 96/97 mph and chucked that bad boy around the edges with cutters and sinkers mixing whenever possible. The splitter and slider were bad but whatever, the hard stuff worked. I’m happy for you Montas, but no, I’m not trusting you moving forward.

Emilio Pagán (CIN) vs STL (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 22 pitches.

Nothing like a bullpen game, amirite? Yeah, nothing we like. Amen.

Beau Brieske (DET) vs SEA (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 37 pitches.

He opened for Bryan Sammons, who performed well in the Bryan CranSLAM vs. Woo – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 74 pitches. It’s awfully boring with Sammons, who does a good job executing the Neckbeard with five pitches and nothing looking elite. If you want to trust that command, go right ahead. I don’t and think this is more of a Blame it on the Mariners. He gets the Cubs next, which could work for your 15-teamers, but doesn’t push the needle enough in 12-teamers.

José Berríos (TOR) @ LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 84 pitches.

Ayyy solid curve and sinkers Berríos! Way to take advantage of another great matchup, especially for two straight starts after I denounced you. Y’all might think that’s sarcastic, I’m actually serious – I genuinely want every pitcher to be dope. Who cares if I didn’t expect it and was wrong about it? That’s even better! It’s pleasant surprise, literally the greatest thing in the world. He hosts the Reds next and I think you’re okay with it. Still a Cherry Bomb case, but at least it’s not in Cin City.

Cole Ragans (KCR) @ MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches.

Aces gonna PEW PEW PEW. The sole run was a hanging changeup down the pipe, with the rest of the game coming with ease, outside of a tough at-bat against Royce with the bases loaded, escaping on a great breaker low. His velocity is still in question as he mostly sat 94 mph for the night, but he was able to rear back and hurl 97+ mph in the seventh when he needed to and I kinda love it. His four-seamer command is there, the changeup is filth, and we even saw his curve show up more than usual. What about the slider and cutter? Still working on that. The slider did well as a surprise pitch for outs, while the cutter…1/9 strikes. Yeah. Still figuring that one out.

Dean Kremer (BAL) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.

Is this the good version of Kremer? Ehhh, not really. The splitter went 3/31 whiffs as the breadwinner of the outing, shelving his cutter for just 12% usage. I don’t buy the splitter being as effective as it was to earn strikes and outs and I think he got away with a lot here. I’d be careful with the Mets and Astros up next.

Alex Cobb (CLE) vs CHC (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.

Hmmmm. The splitter went 9% CSW but earned outs as he generally kept it low, while the sinker snuck in for 11/34 called strikes as it lived upstairs. And 8/12 curveballs for strikes! So, we like Cobb now? Not really. I’m not a fan of being reliant on high sinker called strikes with just a 6% SwStr rate on his splitter, and the Yankees are up next. We wait.

Davis Martin (CHW) vs NYY (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.

I watched this one and I gotta say, that changeup was looking filthy. His only blemish was a first-inning cement-mixer slider to Soto that was launched over the fence, sandwiched by disgusting changeup strikeouts. That’s a Gold Star, Martin – I thought you were a slider guy! SQUAWK! Ohhhh right. His changeup showed up at 22% usage last time out, but this was 30% and far better, while the slider was pushed aside to 12% usage, understandable after that aforementioned horrible early breaker in the first. He’ll get the Giants next and there’s hope the changeup continues to carry him there, too. After all, he did hit 96.7 mph on the gun for a pitch…and mostly sit around 92 mph.

Martín Pérez (SDP) vs PIT (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.

This was Vargas Rule bliss. Pérez lived down-and-armside with everything, forcing the Pirates to play his game. Changeups, sinkers, curves, cutters, you name it, this guy located it and messed with Pirates hitters for a King Cole. Is it staying over the plate or falling off the edge? WHO KNOWS. I’m a bit hesitant to start Pérez against the Twins next (far tougher than the Pirates), but I can see that working, too. He’s in a groove and has a solid squad behind him.

Zack Littell (TBR) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 68 pitches.

I genuinely don’t know how this one worked out. His velocity was down nearly two ticks, his slider held just an 18% zone rate, and he threw many hittable splitters and sinkers. Thank you Koufax, the BABIP is much appreciated.

Walker Buehler (LAD) @ MIL (ND) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 87 pitches.

He really doesn’t have a fastball and it’s scary to watch. 7/19 strikes on four-seamers + a mediocre sinker forced Buehler to go cutter heavy, which isn’t a bad thing, but that should be the back-up strike pitch, not the pitch. Meanwhile, the change, curve, and sweeper went 0/27 whiffs (lol) and the gyro slider is gone. We’re nowhere closer to being fixed right now (maybe the cutter is a step forward?) and I’m still benching Buehler.

Grant Holmes (ATL) @ SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.

Holmes leaned heavily on the slider that the Athletics never taught him (I still can’t believe that. Watch the latest episode of The Craft w/ me and Eno Sarris to hear that story), and still had his curveball cooking at 41% CSW to cruise through the Giants lineup. Oh, and a HR on a first-pitch fastball out of the zone to T-Fitz that you just gotta shrug off because that dude is ABSURD right now. We have an issue with The Real Estate Broker now, though. It looks like ReyLó could be returning for the next series, possibly pushing Holmes out of the rotation. Let’s say Holmes makes that start or Atlanta turns to a six-man…that’s also against the Phillies. If ReyLó isn’t back for two more, it would the Nationals after the Phillies, but if it’s a six-man, he’d get the Phils + Twins. Kinda tough. Do we drop Holmes now considering those potential matchups and likelihood of displacement? Ehhhhhh, up to you.

Tanner Houck (BOS) vs TEX (ND) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 108 pitches.

Hey, way to survive. The sweeper was much better here with 76% strikes (not 50%!) and the splitter returned to being a proper third of his usage unlike last time out. That said, 4/35 splitter whiffs and a…41% strike rate on the sinker. Yeah. He really did his best Neckbeard attempt trying to induce contact off his secondaries and it worked out. He’s not back yet, sadly, but at least he’s battling to make the most of what he has right now. Good luck against the Astros…

DJ Herz (WSN) @ BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! I didn’t expect success from Herz against the Orioles, but with 7/20 changeup whiffs and tossing 35% sliders, Herz made it work. That slider wasn’t great, though (57% strikes, just 2/30 whiffs, and 20% CSW), but it kept batters honest to open up the fastball/change dynamic. Now it’s Rockie Road and this Cherry Bomb has a decent chance of coming through. If he has his changeup working or solid four-seamer command, that is.

Will Warren (NYY) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.

It didn’t come with the expected Win, but this was a decent performance from Warren. The sweeper didn’t do enough here – 11/26 strikes is horrible – and it’s the difference between dominance and decency. The change and cutter really didn’t help either, making him reliant on a poorly shaped four-seamer and sinker to get his outs. It’s the CrySox, so it was just enough, of course. Whenever he makes his next start, I’d likely prefer to hold off and make sure the secondaries are cooking first. We saw the floor last week.

Louie Varland (MIN) vs KCR (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 98 pitches.

Hey, props to Varland here, even with a PQS. He showed me something new with his four-seamer, dialing it up to 99 mph at one point, then 95 mph on the next. He was able to elevate the pitch well, though it’s middling 14-15″ of iVB prevent it from being truly elite – a 1.2 HAVAA is good, not great, but his near seven feet of extension with 96 mph velocity will absolutely play. The bigger question is the cutter and changeup, which were unrefined in this one. The curve was a solid #2 pitch and consistently spotted down-and-gloveside, though that last element of a legit #2 (he already has strike-earning #3 pitches) is the missing piece. I wonder if the slider will return…

Joey Estes (OAK) @ NYM (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.

Cool, this didn’t help at all. Your best asset is command and that means you can’t locate down the pipe. Like at all. Don’t do that.

Tanner Gordon (COL) @ ARI (L) – 0.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 44 pitches.

A pair of errors extended this one and forced the Rockies to pull him at 44 pitches. COL story, bro.

Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.

The gameplan was cutters, low curves, and four-seamers (all away) to LHB, sinkers (inside) and sweepers (away) to RHB and it generally worked. Props to Taillon for doing what he could against a tough matchup in Cleveland, though it’s not enough for me to comfortably roster him in 12-teamers. QS leagues, you may want to consider a stream against the Tigers up next. Maybe standard leagues, too.

Dane Dunning (TEX) @ BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 76 pitches.

No surprise here, he needs to be locked in to provide value and there was no sign he’d have it here, with none to suggest it’ll be there in the future. If he gets another shot, that is.

Tyler Phillips (PHI) vs MIA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.

Ah, not even the Marlins, eh? Well alright then.

Robbie Ray (SFG) vs ATL (L) – 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 39 pitches.

Lol. Ray hit the first two batters, struck out one, walked another, allowed a grand slam on a hanging 0-1 curve (YUCK), strike out, then a final walk before he got the hook. You know what’s wild? The two HBP & three walks WERE ALL WITH TWO STRIKES. Literally 7/8 batters faced got to two-strikes. It’s how you get a 31% CSW despite the chaos. Yeah, we just tuck this away into our minds of OH WHAT WAS THAT and still roster Ray. It was not a fun day.

Kyle Gibson (STL) @ CIN (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.

Ouch. Cin City ain’t a fun place to pitch and Gibson allowed…checks notes…FOUR home runs. Welp, that shouldn’t happen again, let’s move on.

Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ PHI (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.

Oh come on Cabrera. I was really hoping the walks were on their way out with your massive embrace of the changeup, which certainly continued here at 48% usage, but just 54% strikes…ugh. The slider is nowhere to be found (WHY NOT?!) and the fastballs are no help at all. The curve is still a great offering, though, and really, change, curve, and slider would be so dope, paired with a surprise 96/97 mph sinker inside or high heater would just be LOVELY. But whatever, this was too risky against the Phillies anyway and it’s a coin flip for this Cherry Bomb against the Sneks next.

Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs TOR (L) – 5.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 98 pitches.

Whoa. The Jays had a clear game plan against Anderson – attack everything they see upstairs. Two homers off middle-up pitches (cutter and change) definitely hurt, but the changeup went 12/34 whiffs…because he kept the thing down per usual. They sold out on the heater and cutter and that’s your ball game. I get it, really. It’s what I’d do if I were hitting against Anderson: Cheat on his worse pitches and tip your cap to his best. It’s why you see 19 whiffs in a disaster start like this. Stick with Anderson against the Royals and hope he adjusts from “The Book” adjusting on him.

Mitch Keller (PIT) @ SDP (L) – 5.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.

Yikes. Keller was down two ticks on his sinker and didn’t fool Padres hitters at all at the lower velocity. We’re talking heaters from 88-95 mph in this one, declining as the game went on. Not great. I heavily suggest benching against the Rangers up next – yes, I still consider them a strong offense.

 

Game of the Day

 

Max Fried vs. Logan Webb – This game is going to be under two hours.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Wilfred Perez/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)