Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Hot Snell Summer

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Blake Snell (SFG) @ CIN (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 114 pitches.

It’s just two weeks since we led with Blake Snell, but the man just threw a no-hitter, completing the ninth inning for the first time in his career: 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 114 pitches. I won’t take long here – Aces gonna ace as I declare 2024 officially #HotSnellSummer.

I had my hesitations with Dylan Cease after his no-hitter, rooted in a track record of volatility, implosions, and the lack of a strong #3 offering, and I did a 180 after his last effort. With Snell, it’s a little more clear-cut with his trends of first vs. second half + a true third pitch in the mix with his changeup, along with an overpowering four-seamer and a curveball he’s learned to earn strikes with – a 68% strike rate here is absolute bliss. He even nailed down his own claim to fame – the BSB with four-seamers up (and often gloveside! He’s upped four-seamers gloveside by 10% since 2022) with low curveballs.

He’s an ace. You waited all year for the chance of Snell waking up and here he is. Enjoy.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:

 

Bryan Woo (SEA) vs PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.

SEVEN INNINGS?! NINETY PITCHES?! What an unreal roller coaster of emotions as I expected Woo to be limited once again after experiencing a tweak in his hamstring in his last outing. He hadn’t even eclipsed eighty pitches yet y’all. I was JOKING when I said #Woo90PitchesWatch2024 the other day. He even executed 30% secondaries for a large number of strikes, all performing well. He is such a frustrating and fun and “I DON’T KNOW HOW TO FEEL” pitcher this year, a true HIPSTER as the other arms with a similar label are easier to drop onto the wire. Now it’s the Tigers and LET’S GET HYYPPPPPPED.

Paul Blackburn (NYM) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 82 pitches.

PAULIE PUNCHOUTS HATH ARRIVED. But seriously, his cutter and changeup were spotted well and he took down the lowly Angels for his new club. Too bad it’s Coors next, that’s not what you want. He could be a decent streamer later in the summer, especially with the higher Win chance now.

Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.

Atta boy Vásquez. Rockie Road is a lovely gift and you quietly produced and put yourself in a position to earn a Win. That’s all we could ask for. I asked for a Win. Well, that’s just unreasonable. Imma ask again when he faces the Marlins. You do that. Say hi to their mother for me.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs BAL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 79 pitches.

Hey, this is pretty good for Carrasco given the circumstances. Way to keep them in the game, fella. Remember when he was the SP #6 in camp with a minor league deal? Props to him for being just serviceable enough to hold onto the spot for this long. That’s because of other factors. Whatever, they haven’t DFA’d him. GIVE HIM PROPS.

Javier Assad (CHC) vs STL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 97 pitches.

I can see Assad now, wringing his hands as he’s up to his old tricks again. See! 1 ER in another outing! Four frames, y’all. At least the slider/cutter are still gloveside and the sinker isn’t terribly spotted, but this isn’t an arm to spend a whole lot of time thinking about. You don’t win 12-teamers with guys like Assad riding your squad. You win by streaming him at exactly the right time. Now is not that time.

Austin Gomber (COL) @ SDP (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! Gomber actually got good results when pitching at his best. For once. “At his best” can be defined by Four-seamers fouled off instead of put into play and secondaries landing inside the zone. Not a gamble you should bank on moving forward.

Joe Ryan (MIN) vs CHW (W) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 103 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Beautiful BSB work here and we press forward. But those walks. But those ratios and strikeouts. Shhhh.

Joey Estes (OAK) vs LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.

Uhhhh, that’s a Gold Star alright. Estes hurled enough strikes and it generally went his way, save for a home run off a heater above the zone. Let’s call him a Werewolf to trust only against poor offenses (you could not trust this). Don’t get carried away.

Cole Ragans (KCR) @ DET (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He allowed a two-run shot on a meatball 93 mph fastball in the first, then did his regular work after that. A curious thing happened this time around: Fastball variance pitch-to-pitch, ranging from 92-97 mph across the game, sometimes in between two consecutive pitches. His velo is still down a bit at 94 mph and change (no way that HR happens at 96, for example) and there is some worry there, but the secondaries are working (love the cutter landing gloveside consistently here + one backdoor for a strike) and we’re grooving.

Yusei Kikuchi (HOU) vs TBR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 26 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 95 pitches.

Hahahahaha. So here’s the thing. The four-seamer? Elite and 40% usage, plenty inside the zone. The slider? Stupid good down and in town. The curve? Oh, um. Not really…Wait. This wasn’t—THE CHANGEUP Y’ALL. I was all about “Yo, stop throwing that slowball and use the slider” and now Kikuchi is throwing both, where he actually commanded the offering at the bottom of the zone consistently. The result? 11/28 whiffs. Lol. There’s your Gallows Pole and near Golden Goal and I wonder what clicked into place here. Maybe it’s just the Rays being the Rays, maybe Kikuchi had a good feel this game, or maybe there was a one-sentence tweak that actually worked. I’m skeptical of the latter, but y’all know I’m excited to see whether this sticks for another start…against Texas. LET’S GO.

Shane Baz (TBR) @ HOU (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.

Feel good about Baz, y’all. So the curveball is still a thing? Ha, nah. Just six thrown. But don’t worry! The slider acted like the old days with a 24% SwStr rate, supplementing the excellent heater well as it perfectly landed at the top of the zone. I am a little surprised he turned to the hook so infrequently, though. It’s still a great offering…when not thrown to Bregman, who laced two hits off it. Don’t throw it to him again.

Valente Bellozo (MIA) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 66 pitches.

Unreal. What a dude, spinning cutters over the plate with four-seamers and changeups just well enough to return five productive frames in fewer than 70 pitches. He’ll likely get more starts given the team’s dearth of options, and he is only an option in deep NL-Only leagues. Too low of a ceiling in 12-teamers and most 15-teamers.

Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs SFG (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 90 pitches.

Abbott got Singled Out as he located four-seamers and sweepers decently well. He simply couldn’t get quick outs and labored. So it goes, enjoy the strikeouts.

Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs MIA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 94 pitches.

YOOOOOO. The four-seamer is still coming in at a low angle (not 1.6/1.7, but we’ll take 1.4 HAVAA) and wasn’t to blame here (even if he didn’t elevate it). That would be two pitches left over the plate that returned bombs over the fence: a cutter and curve. Those mistake pitches are the only wrinkle for a pitcher with a lovely kitchen sink (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, splitter, curve, slider, and each one allowed exactly one hit. Huh.) who earns whiffs and pumps 96/97 on a winning team. Start loving Mr. Crescendo, y’all.

Frankie Montas (MIL) @ WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.

When you pitch for the Brewers and not the Reds, these destructive lines can actually turn into a Win. I still can’t believe he’s making more than Imanaga this year. Anyway, cool to see him sit 97 mph, but as you can see, that doesn’t solve everything. It’s clearly adrenaline in his first start for a new club and will likely disappear.

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.

His sweeper was good, but we need that one extra pitch, y’all. Pfaadt, I want you to be dope so badly. You need that curve or four-seamer dominance or something else. He’s like Heaney in my constant swaying of his value all year and here we are, August 3rd, in the same exact place we were on March 1st. Funny how that works.

Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 100 pitches.

Blegh. Close, but he got Singled Out and didn’t put away batters like he usually does. Now it’s the Yankees and I’d rather bench him there and return after. Not dropping him, though. The changeup is still very much legit and his overall command is still excellent.

Jake Irvin (WSN) vs MIL (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 110 pitches.

Blegh. He didn’t pitch much worse than usual, but a trio of pitches over the plate turned into doubles and that’s your ball game. It’s the Giants next, we start him there and forget this.

Dean Kremer (BAL) @ CLE (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 95 pitches.

He’s a Cherry Bomb without the extra touch of sugar to make you forget about the potential explosion. He’s only in consideration for those in dire need of Wins.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ NYY (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.

It was the Yankees. And yes, his splitter is obviously still not where we want it to be. Good luck against the Orioles next, I think I’m passing on that one.

Davis Martin (CHW) @ MIN (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 75 pitches.

He tried Dancing With The Disco and didn’t realize he was in a Wendy’s.

Tarik Skubal (DET) vs KCR (L) – 6.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.

Aces gonna fail to grab the SP #1 spot on Monday. You were so close, Skubs. It was a Careful, Icarus with his final two runs coming in the seventh, but the changeup wasn’t the stupid elite pitch we’ve seen, relying more on heaters than we typically see. He’s like Ober in failing only against the Royals, or maybe it’s just the glare of Ragans messing him up both times. I get it, Tarik.

Kutter Crawford (BOS) @ TEX (W) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.

Ugggggh. That’s three straight duds from Crawford, albeit all against fantastic offenses. A 0/15 CSW on his sweeper is the obvious “Yo, that ain’t right,” but the other element is, oh I don’t know, four home runs allowed. That marks 12 taters allowed in his last three games combined. TWELVE. That has to come down. It just has to.

Erick Fedde (STL) @ CHC (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 97 pitches.

Bleeeegh. It was Fedde’s first game with the Cards and not his sharpest. At least it’s the Rays next and we’re certainly holding onto Fedde for that.

Gavin Stone (LAD) @ OAK (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.

Huh. It was a night of legit changeups (11/32 whiffs!), but he allowed a few dumb singles, a few deserved extra-base hits, and a pair of home runs on hittable pitches. He’s a Toby with 4+ ER in four of his last five games. Maybe it’s a touch of fatigue for Stone’s first season starting regularly and I have no desire to start him against the Phillies next. Do you need to hold him through it? He’s not a must-roster, but I’d think he’s better than most options by the end of the month.

Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) vs ARI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.

Nooooo. The Ortiz dream ended with us in a cold sweat, lunging forward as we just dreamed of ourselves stepping into a hole suddenly. I WASN’T PREPARED FOR THE STEP. The slider and cutter weren’t as precise as we’ve seen and the Sneks hit the mistakes. I’d pass against the Padres and reassess Ortiz as a pickup after that.

José Ureña (TEX) vs BOS (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 69 pitches.

Remember kids, If you roster José, Ureña boatload of trouble.

Marcus Stroman (NYY) vs TOR (L) – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 64 pitches.

Yikes. Lots of mistake pitches here and I want to remind y’all that you don’t have to roster Stroman. He’s a good Win/QS chance arm, but everything else is awfully mid.

Tyler Phillips (PHI) @ SEA (L) – 1.2 IP, 8 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 54 pitches.

Well alright then. The Mariners’ offense is better, Phillips has a Toby arsenal and couldn’t find strikes as consistently as his previous two outings + the lovely Shag Rug that reared its ugly head in the worst way here. It doesn’t mean Phillips can’t be valuable later, but the Dodgers are next. He was just a streamer, anyway.

 

Game of the Day

 

Garrett Crochet vs. Bailey Ober – I’m guessing that the White Sox will let Crochet fly again + Ober has been a truck this season since his opening day disaster.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)