Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Joe Musgrove (SDP) vs NYM (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 75 pitches.
We’ve waited a long time to feel confident in Joe Musgrove and now is that time. The veteran Padre was magnificent against the Mets last night, earning a King Cole via 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 75 pitches. Yes, seven full frames at 75 pitches, with a low 0-2 curve smacked for a double as the sole blemish of the night. This was a new man.
This year, we have a new stat called SIP% that we’ve done very little to showcase – Strikes In Play %. In short, some pitchers have fastballs they want to get hit into play for outs, while others struggle to succeed solely on the pitch and hope to sneak it over the plate for called strikes, setting up their excellent secondaries. Kyle Bradish and his cut-fastball were the impetus for the stat, while Musgrove’s below-average heater (at 92/93, not hovering 94 mph) seeks a low SIP% to establish strikes for his breakers.
It worked perfectly. 41% CSW with 71% strikes is lovely (17% SIP works!), as the breakers were excellent. His curveball held an unseen 90% strike rate, the sweeper was a great mix pitch, and his cutter…well I think it’s actually a harder slider and standard cutter merged into one. That high-80s slider was disgusting, while the harder cutter was still used to jam LHB (first at-bat of the game!) and keep him in at-bats.
With the curve and harder slider + the surprise sweeper and the stabilizing cutter, Musgrove looked like the very best version of himself. It was awesome. I’m not hoping A) That harder slider sticks around (remember, his low-to-mid 80s slider wasn’t particularly sharp) and is embraced more moving forward, and B) The feel of his arsenal sticks around. I’d expect the pitch count to continue to rise with more games under his belt, with this one likely being a case of “Hey, you’ve gone seven, let’s not push it.”
I’m a massive fan of this and you should be too. I can’t wait for the Cardinals and Tigers up next.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
This was mostly high heater, down-and-in-town sliders, though there were a few lovely changeups in the mix. We’ll take it, way to get it done against a poor squad at 95/96 mph (phew).
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) @ SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.
Oh cool, just 1/9 curveballs for strikes. But the changeup! Yeah, that was a lovely surprise and Jack Foley talked about the pitch here, throwing a “kick change” which Eno Sarris and I also discussed on The Craft podcast. He’s still horribly inefficient, though, and even in the most pleasant of environments, he couldn’t throw enough strikes to take advantage. I have too much anxiety to chase this.
Buck Farmer (CIN) @ PIT (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 27 pitches.
Nothing like a full bullpen game on a Friday night, amirite? I deserve more for this ticket I bought. I know. I know…
Andre Pallante (STL) @ MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 99 pitches.
That cut-fastball four-seamer is doing all the work and it’s not like he’s featuring pristine locations. He’s a perfect case of “That fastball is working and it really shouldn’t.” It may be a Vargas Rule, but do you really want to test it against the Padres? That sub 20% strikeout rate isn’t gonna change.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) @ ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
We saw 95/96 with solid shape on Gore’s heater, mixed with decent locations in the zone and a changeup that woke up for 46% CSW. The breakers? 4/30 whiffs and that’s not enough. We’re not back.
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 107 pitches.
Hunter spotted fastballs well and earned a ton of foul balls on them, allowing him to mix in changeups and curves off them effectively. It wasn’t dominant Hunter, but generally good command and a big enough mix to make it work. He’s still searching for the approach, but we keep rolling with this. He’s become one of those “generally effective” pitchers who is improving his command. One day, a secondary pitch will become legit and suddenly POW! There’s a stud. IT’S THAT EASY.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs WSN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna get Singled Out. Just a handful of changeups here and not good ones at that, but the slider and heater were located well and he deserved better.
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ NYY (L) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 106 pitches.
That’s a Gold Star for you Freeland, even if it came with a Loss. Everything was in a tight band down-and-gloveside and he nearly spun enough magic to avoid two solo shots from Judge and Stanton. You can only get lucky for so long…
Chris Flexen (CHW) vs DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
Who is that riding that wave? WAIT, THAT’S FLEXEN. Way to locate curves and cutters well, I’ll even allow the ridiculously floated changeups and horribly wasted four-seamers. I’m glad you could get some sun one more time this summer.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Atta boy Wacha! I was terrified of this one, but the changeup killed it and five other pitches complemented it well. I guess he’s a 50/50 Toby for his next start in Cleveland.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 96 pitches.
It’s an elite four-seamer and despite the pitch sitting lower in the zone than usual, he still galavanted through the Sawx lineup with only a decent cutter by his side. We’re talking 63% four-seamers and it worked. You love to see it in concert with the Diamondbacks coming to terms with sending JorMont to the pen. Reports are that Nelson put on his best Leo impression and shouted I’M NOT LEAVING when coming off the mound. Stop
Keider Montero (DET) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Ehhhh, you wanted a little better against the CrySox, but the fella didn’t locate well inside the zone and his stuff isn’t overwhelming. It could be fine against the Angels with a little more grace of Koufax, but is that upside worth it?
Bobby Miller (LAD) vs TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
Nick!!! A Gallows Pole from Miller!!! I know, I know…this was the Rays. WHAT. Alright, that’s dramatic, Miller absolutely pitched better here. His four-seamer was mostly upstairs, his changeup had some excellent moments front-dooring LHB, and his curve was more reliable than in the past. The problem? Where is the slider?! It’s so apparent how badly Miller needs the pitch, watching Rays batters sit dead-red heater, allowing the changeup to earn foul balls (or a HR when floated middle-middle, and even then, he was way out in front and skied it over the fence) and struggle when the curveball was executed. But hot dang, Miller allowed a HR on an 0-2 heater just above the zone at 100 mph. Why? Because he had nothing else to give him. Where’s the slider from last season? If we’re to trust Miller against proper lineups, I need to see A) That heater continue to live upstairs, B) A decent enough curve and/or change, and C) A TRUE SLIDER. Gyro, preferably. He’s getting the Orioles next and I don’t think we’re out of the woods – a start there believes in his command to be just as good and I just can’t get behind that. I NEED THAT SLIDER.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 74 pitches.
Hahaha, okay sinkerballer. Enjoy your PQS and a HAISTBMBWT?! To be fair, the precision on his sinker is pretty dang good, but there’s nothing else and he’s fully reliant on the good grace of Koufax. At least you know there’s a chance?
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 106 pitches.
A PQS with a dub works for me. The velocity at 95 mph is…okay. I was hoping for a little more to showcase that he’s not on the precipice of his lat injury reappearing, but the splitter and cutter were good and we move forward.
Max Meyer (MIA) vs CHC (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 91 pitches.
A PQS is a success for Meyer, though he’s doing far too much with his poor four-seamer and needing Koufax to survive. I have no interest here.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) @ MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.
Pain. Only pain. Seriously, absolutely nothing of benefit here, even against the Marlins. DON’T YOU FORGET IT.
Tyler Alexander (TBR) @ LAD (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 69 pitches.
Hey, the man did all that he could as he tried to Neckbeard against the mighty Dodgers, and he kept the Rays in the game. Props to T-Lex and his short leash that matches his arms.
Aaron Civale (MIL) @ OAK (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.
Yeaaaaah, let’s not, okay? Simply put, the breakers aren’t there.
David Festa (MIN) vs STL (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 75 pitches.
Blegh. He didn’t get his four-seamer up and he nibbled inefficiently here. The skills are in there, I feel like he needs more time polishing before we’re genuinely gung-ho. He has upside to chase, though it’s safer to test the streaming world.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
So close to being productive across the board. Did he forget it was Los Angeles?
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
This was standard Bibee – a lack of precision and relying on his slider and change to come through enough. They didn’t, that’s how it goes. We still start him.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna allow three homers and otherwise dominate. DANG LOW SINKERS! And one slider. AND ONE SLIDER!
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs ARI (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
Well this wasn’t good. The changeup was off y’all. THE CHANGEUP WAS OFF. We need the Changedown and it’s frustrating to see an off-night when he looked primed to cruise. I’m treating it like a bump, not a decline, and trying again when he faces the Jays.
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
Blegh. That fourth inning did him in with a poor slider down the pipe, a non-caught liner, a dribbler to the mound, and a great 0-2 pitch up-and-in that was sent to right. In short, I still think Falter is an intriguing arm with a good high heater and decent slider, though I really needed something else to mix-up hitters sitting heater and adjusting to the slider. Obviously avoid in Cleveland next.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
Womp womp. This was a dart throw against a strong offense and it didn’t work out. Now it’s the Dodgers so let’s return in September if the matchups are right.
JP Sears (OAK) vs MIL (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
Awwwww, he was so good with his four-seamer in his last four games and…he located it well in this one too…? Just three whiffs, sadly, and the poor changeups messed him up, with a few heaters getting walloped, too. The fact that Sears still had high heaters under his belt encourages me, but he was a tick-down with poor shape and not as solid of an attack angle. This seems like a proper disruption of his rhythm and I’m out. Bleeeeegggh.
Paul Blackburn (NYM) @ SDP (L) – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 59 pitches.
Blackburn faced a strong offense and gave you a “HAISTMBMBWT?!” You only have yourself to blame.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) @ KCR (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 78 pitches.
Turnbull was sacrificed for this. Come on Nick, drop it. I WON’T. They should have dropped HIM. Okay that’s fair.
Game of the Day
Blake Snell vs. George Kirby – This is in Seattle, which means Snell could go 20 strikeouts…
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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