Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – G Pepiot

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.  

Caleb Ferguson (LAD) @ CLE (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 20 pitches.

We saw two openers in front of Ryan Pepiot on Thursday and while the final line is far from elite – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 76 pitches – it came with a Win and the adoration of my heart.

I love seeing Pepiot figure out his changeup as it earned 65% strikes and 35% CSW, plus a consistent slider for 44% CSW and a four-seamer that lived in the zone with ease. I’m not sure how much the Dodgers will lean on Pepiot down the stretch, but I’m going to anticipate another start next week against the Diamondbacks, and given the likelihood he finishes the fifth or sixth frame, another Win could come your way with solid ratios and a handful of strikeouts. There’s value to be had here for Pinnochio’s maker.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:

 

Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs CIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 86 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! That 45% CSW is the fifth highest of the season of any starter, catalyzing this Golden Goal for the night. Way to make up for the previous disappointing start. His changeup earned whiffs, four-seamer and cutter fueled called strikes, and not one of his five pitches returned a sub 40% CSW. Incredible.

Brandon Williamson (CIN) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.

Changeup is still good and we’re getting some lovely value from Williamson and now he gets the Giants on the slate. Guess we’re going after that one, too.

Michael King (NYY) vs WSH (ND) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 50 pitches.

He opened for Jhony Brito, who didn’t do a whole lot across 2.1 innings. Let’s move on as Brito should be ignored like a tree on the interstate highway. Which one? Exactly.

Shawn Armstrong (TB) vs COL (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 25 pitches.

Oh cool, a bullpen game. ANYWAY–

Brayan Bello (BOS) @ HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.

Whoa, Bello has a new slider! Much less drop, a lot more horizontal movement, and a bit harder velocity. This isn’t to say it’s all that great – just 2/24 whiffs – but he spotted it well and got some outs. His sinker was its usual self and the changeup did wonders getting outs as well. Ignore the WHIP, he’s the same guy you know + possibly a new weapon that could keep his floor higher down the stretch.

Rob Zastryzny (PIT) vs CHC (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 25 pitches.

He opened for 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches of Andre Jackson, a surprisingly great line for the young right-hander, earning him the Gold Star. Jackson’s changeup was the winner here, setting the foundation for the four-seamer and slider living along opposite corners. It’s nice and all, and not enough to go after in twelve teamers. 15-teamers? Nah, not those either, I’m not sure why I phrased it like that.

Justin Steele (CHC) @ PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches.

I’m still not in love with Steele’s command lately, though this start was dampened by a moonshot over the wall. His schedule is still fantastic and we’re going to roll with it, but he’s not the Top 30 SP we want him to be.

Peter Lambert (COL) @ TB (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.

Hey, that’s pretty good! Lambert’s fastballs and breakers worked well in the zone and this start does make you wonder if he’s reliable enough to start outside of Coors against a middling team. Okay nah, probably not (Atlanta next lol). But at least we had that brief thought.

Kyle Gibson (BAL) vs TOR (W) – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.

That’s Gibson for you. Eight strong against the Jays after failing to produce against the Mariners and Athletics. He’s an odd opponent-agnostic Cherry Bomb and that terrifies me. It’s why I hate snakes – without appendages, I just can’t figure out what they’re going to do at any moment. What about the Sneks? Totally different. Snek is cool.

Patrick Corbin (WSH) @ NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.

The slider is still great, but the fastball is not. That said, it’s another Win and a VVPQS for Corbin and if you took the shot after his excellent BSB last time out, the dub and seven strikeouts seem worthwhile. The Jays are up next, though, so womp womp.

Andrew Heaney (TEX) @ MIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 76 pitches.

He’s a Cherry Bomb with a lot more bomb this year, rooted in command you just can’t trust.

José Berríos (TOR) @ BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 79 pitches.

Berríos was 1-2 ticks up on everything here but he allowed a pair of longballs and there’s your problem. Don’t do that. Keep starting him, don’t overthink this.

Jesse Scholtens (CWS) vs OAK (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.

I dug Scholtens’s pitch separation in his start in Coors despite the five walks and sadly he didn’t do enough here to replicate it. I wonder if he’ll have an amazing outing one of these nights when it all comes together. That would be cool.

Pablo López (MIN) vs TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.

Blegh. While he did get a bit Singled Out and he didn’t pitch horrifically, he did make a few more mistakes over the plate than we’re used to. Whatareyagonnado. There’s little reason to believe PabLó won’t rebound against the Guardians.

Ken Waldichuk (OAK) @ CWS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 86 pitches.

This was a strikeout play and Waldi didn’t even come through there. Bleggggh. We’re at the point where we need to see multiple starts of executing the BSB for us to have any desire to routinely start him.

Gavin Williams (CLE) vs LAD (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.

Womp womp. The Dodgers are legit, y’all. I’ve seen far worse starts from Williams and I imagine the line would have been far better if he didn’t have to face an elite offense. Don’t let this deter you.

J.P. France (HOU) vs BOS (L) – 2.1 IP, 10 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.

I showed the line to Justin Mason sitting next to me and he replied “Liar, Liar, France on Fire.” He deserves your love for that. ANYWAY, this is all kinds of hurtful after France had done so much to earn our trust. It’s not to say that France is forever destined to live on the wire, but I don’t blame any of you for rage-dropping. This was baaad as seemingly every mistake he made was clobbered by the Red Sox. Funny story, he’ll face them a second time next week. I kinda think he’s worth the start as we cheer him on for his revenge, you know?

 

Game of the Day

 

Spencer Strider vs. Logan Webb – Hey wait, I’ll be at this game! Come say hi.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Ric Tapia | Icon Sportswire Photo by Ella de Kross | Unsplash Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)