Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Adam Oller (MIA) vs CHC (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Extra extra! Read Oller ’bout Adam Oller and his impressive 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches effort against the Cubs on Sunday. I’ve written off Oller as a middling arm (at best) for the Athletics last year and a poor performance for the Marlins in his season debut last week. With this start under his belt, I imagine y’all have some questions. I got you.
Oller has one skill: A 99th percentile Total Break four-seamer. That’s a product of a two-plane heater that carries 17″ of iVB and 93rd percentile horizontal break at 13″+, which is generated by pitching from the extreme thrid-base side of the rubber and stepping closed toward home. This creates extra break and deception, allowing him to get extra horizontal break on top of his spin-efficient four-seamer that generates vert.
Thing is, it’s all kinds of difficult to locate consistently while throwing cross-body. This was a night where the heater was able to find the zone roughly half the time and flirt with the edges enough to generate chases, and it carried him into the sixth. However, I worry that we can blame these mechanics for his lack of a supporting cast. The curveball is the heavily favored #2 pitch and went sub-50% strikes across its 21 thrown. That sounds bad. Because it is bad. The changeup was used sparingly and was decent when thrown, but Oller doesn’t trust it.
Is that four-seamer elite? When he’s able to spot it, it can look like it. I can see a stretch of legit rhythm at some point, but I don’t think it’s enough without the secondaries to back it up + the sub 94 mph velocity and average HAVAA and extension. Oh, and the Marlins. Oller is a desperate streaming option who can work in a bind (like yesterday!) and while I’ll give him the benefit of barely avoiding the bottom tier this week against the Giants, I’m not chasing this is any of my leagues.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Jose Quintana (NYM) @ SDP (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 95 pitches.
Uhhhh, HAISTBMBWT?! This really wasn’t Quintana’s best and Koufax was smiling all day. A lefty with a big hook? I GOT YOU FAM. At least it’s the White Sox and a date in NYC with the Reds and I guess that’s good enough for a streamer or two if you’re searching for a Win. The ratio floor is still low, though. And the strikeout floor? Um, high. Look up.
Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) vs CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
That four-seamer is cooking. 96 mph with elite HAVAA at a 1.6 mark and nearly seven feet of extension…though it has absurd drop to it, which somewhat counteracts the flat angle…? He also didn’t have his slider or cutter missing bats as they weren’t dotted previously, but that heater! It’s a fun addition with the sinker still landing armside effectively. Is it enough to start him in Cleveland? That’s tough. I want to say yes, thinking about the Nationals start after, though I still question if Ortiz can be a stable producer. This line is his peak – how much value are you really getting from Ortiz?
DJ Herz (WSN) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 92 pitches.
This was the most impressive outing I saw from Herz all season. His four-seamer and changeup went BSB and he even had a fistful of sliders doing work in and out of the zone (there’s still work to be done here). Herz certainly benefited from 12/2 Fouls to BIP on his heater (fewer BIP on contact = more strikeouts, fewer hits on his most hittable offering), while that changeup was fantastic. Sure, there were a crew of rebel changeups that we don’t want to discuss, but the heavy majority were precise down-and-gloveside. Remember, I love southpaws who can spot changeups like this (it’s a changeup league for LHP, slider league for RHP!). He gets the Cubs next and I’m tempted to go for it, hoping this skill sticks.
Gavin Stone (LAD) vs TBR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 80 pitches.
I appreciate you, Stone. You did exactly what you should against the Rays, though your heater was a little less overwhelming. Still a great HAVAA, but very few elevated to take advantage of its best asset. At least they returned a 47% CSW because of that changeup, but it could be so much more than 3/17 whiffs…We ride him out for the rest of the year.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches.
We got double-digit whiffs! Finally! On his four-seamer, just 5/34 on the splitter. NOOOOOOO. I mean, does it matter if it’s a Gallows Pole with this stud line? Sadly…yeah, it does. Francis and Gausman both went heater/splitter and destroyed with their heaters, exploiting the Angels and their “Lineup.” There were some sliders and sinkers to help, but those thinking Gausman has made the tweak will likely be disappointed by the starts against he Twins, Atlanta, Mets, and Rangers on the horizon. We’re still rolling with it, but yeah, let’s cut to the giant stamp over his baseball card. NOT FIXED.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 94 pitches.
As expected, Woo’s four-seamer dominated in Seattle against a poor lineup. 12 four-seamer whiffs are not even that surprising and I’m just so glad he can go 90+ pitches. Congrats on the King Cole, I’m still waiting for a little more from the secondaries, but we did see a few great changeups and breakers in the mix. I’m so conflicted about 2025 as I think a healthy season = Cy Young potential, but we all know the roller coaster of injuries we saw this year. Ugh.
Reynaldo López (ATL) vs WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
That slider was so good. 8/32 whiffs and frequent low locations get be going and he mixed in four-seamers for a great 25% called strike rate. All fears of ReyLó’s breakout campaign concluding with his IL stint should be quelled.
Erick Fedde (STL) @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 88 pitches.
Atta boy Fedde! I didn’t think you still had it in you and I honestly still don’t. Wait what. Yeaaaah, the sweeper lived in the zone and worked, while 43% CSW cutters and fortunate sinkers aren’t quite my jam, though he did spot them well and if that’s a groove we can bank on, that’s great, but it’s also the Yankees next. The schedule opens up after that (SEA, @TOR, PIT) but it’s a clear sit before then.
Matthew Boyd (CLE) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
The four-seamer performed better than usual based on legit command upstairs + his changeup falling under the zone well, which isn’t something I’d latch onto moving forward – this was the peak. I’m waiting for more than 2/14 whiffs on the slider that put his career on its back across his pre-TJS days, though he gets Pittsburgh + White Sox across two of his next three starts. The start in the middle? Uhhhh, the Dodgers. Let’s see if he’s worth the hold after the Pirates start.
Cody Bradford (TEX) @ CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
Look at him go. Excellent four-seamers on the edges upstairs with secondaries filling up the zone underneath. There’s a chance he’s out of the rotation in favor of Jon Gray or even Jack Leiter, but that would be foolish in my view. He’s a sneaky play for 2025 if he can get comfortable with a legit breaker (maybe the curve we saw here?).
Jacob Lopez (TBR) @ LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 72 pitches.
Wait, what. Oller, give me that Gold Star back and give it to Lopez. It doesn’t have the adhesive anymore. JUST TAKE IT. This was 87 mph cutters and 78 mph sliders confounding the Dodgers over the plate, merged with 91 mph heaters that flirted with the zone, messing up the rhythm whenever possible as a slinging southpaw. No, I don’t want to chase this – he only started because Shane Baz had the flu – and let’s be happy for his fun moment.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
All hail the Zebulon. The strikeouts have arrived, rooted in an increased embrace of his slider, which went 7/19 whiffs as he dotted them down-and-armside, amplified by his four-seamers living up-and-armside. This wasn’t even peak Zebby (cutters were off and on, change and curve were blegh), but just that one-two punch of heaters and sliders was fantastic. I wonder if Zebby would have seen the sixth if he were under 75/80 pitches, but let’s assume the Twins are making him a five-and-dive for now and that’s alright with me. Keep cookin’, Zebby. Three more good matchups await, though @CLE, @BOS, BAL close out the year and that’s gonna be a difficult moment.
Martín Pérez (SDP) vs NYM (ND) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 79 pitches.
Blegh. He was plenty more chaotic than usual and you may be tempted to move on…except his schedule is lovely. @TBR, DET, @SEA is dumb. Get it together Pérez, we need you.
Nick Martinez (CIN) @ PIT (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 54 pitches.
This was a game split between Martinez and Carson Spiers, with the latter arm going four shutout with a single strikeout. Do we care? Not really. Both will get another start in the rotation, but against the Brewers and this was not peak Martinez in the slightest, while I still don’t trust Spiers, even if his command was far better in this one. You can do better.
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ SEA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 62 pitches.
Ray left this one with hamstring tightness as we hold our breath. My guess is an IL stint, which skips an incredible Marlins matchup and could mean @BAL and @ARI are his next two in a few weeks. Ugh. Wait to find out more, but this isn’t great y’all. These upcoming weeks mean A WHOLE LOT MORE than hypothetical mid-September and later.
Joey Estes (OAK) vs MIL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Estes had the four-seamer command you want to see and had some decent secondaries underneath to nearly go a full six frames without much issue. I think we avoid for the Rangers next but return for the Mariners. He’s more Koufax dependent than I’d like, with a sprinkle of “Please locate those four-seamers perfectly today.”
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Anderson adjusted a bit in this one by featuring just 30% four-seamer seamers and being careful where he placed them inside the zone, fighting to go five frames of just 2 ER in a Dusty Donut of a decent ERA and blegh everything else. Fortunately it’s a solid schedule up next and we trek forward.
Kolby Allard (PHI) @ KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.
Wow Dralla, I’m happy for ya. You siphoned the most value you could, even with the 1.60 WHIP, and got away with a lot down the pipe. That’s likely it for you in the Phillies rotation, I hope you had a fun time.
Beau Brieske (DET) @ CHW (ND) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 25 pitches.
We saw more Bryan Sammons getting opened for and he rewarded acute managers with another Win across 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Thank you White Sox, thank you mini-Toby, thank you for your sneaky value. The rotation is filling back up now, though, and this might be it for Sammons.
Javier Assad (CHC) @ MIA (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
So, are you buying back in on Assad? This was a Blame it on the Marlins with a whole lot of mediocrity over the plate and some well-spotted sweepers and cutters at times. I can’t do it. You couldn’t do it in April, either. FINE. I don’t blame you if you want to Vargas Rule and keep riding the “hot” hand against the Nationals. However, I think you’re making a Grave Mistake (Ayyyy, a classic making a comeback!).
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 92 pitches.
It’s a VPQS for Kremer, who didn’t help your squads in standard leagues. Understandable given the opponent and I liked his splitter and curve at times, with some solid heaters and cutters, but yeah, this ain’t the guy you want. Maybe if you’re desperate for Wins with @COL, TBR, @BOS, SFG up next…eh. That doesn’t get me excited in the slightest.
Yusei Kikuchi (HOU) @ BAL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
I still can’t believe Urias hit that 96 mph four-seamer located super well upstairs at 96 mph for a three-run shot. It followed a single and walk for all three runs allowed. Life is dumb. Kikuchi is still dope.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) vs COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
Blegh. This was the matchup you wanted for Stroman, but he didn’t bring his best feel. The schedule is solid the rest of the way, though, so I think we’re locked in here for Win chances…Good luck.
Austin Gomber (COL) @ NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
Not the worst outing we’ve seen against the Yankees, and his curve was coming in 1-2 ticks harder…Ha, sorry, let me do the thing so you can stop wasting your time. COL story, bro.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 101 pitches.
Yikes. His velocity is still down, hovering 91 mph on his four-seamer, while the pitch isn’t returning whiffs like 2023 and neither is the changeup with just 3/21 here. I’m absolutely worried, though I don’t think his precision is terrible. It may just be a “Fenway is top tier offense” and we move on…except it’s the Dodgers next. Seriously, you don’t need to hold onto Kelly. Could he return to form overnight? Absolutely! Is he the only one out there on your wire who can provide value like a Toby? Definitely not! If you’re hunting for QS or Wins, I understand the hold, but I really think we can do better. The assessment of risk vs reward isn’t in your favor.
Frankie Montas (MIL) @ OAK (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 106 pitches.
That four-seamer is starting to look legit at 97 mph (not 95/96!) and he pairs it with low cutters and sliders, but Frankie, buddy, you can’t just throw it down the middle and expect things to go well. He’s an interesting add for next week with @CIN next (ehhhhh), but Rockie Road and @SFG after. I kinda like those if the velocity holds against the Reds.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs PHI (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ouch. I know, the Phillies, but Lugo wasn’t spotting at all. Doesn’t matter if you throw a ton of pitches, if they all land in the same spot over the plate, you’re gonna have a bad time. He’s not cooked, though you are at a crossroads: Lugo gets @HOU, CLE, @NYY in his next three games, with DET, SFG, @ATL to end the year. What do you do? WHAT DO YOU DO?! I think you gotta roll the dice, but hot dang, that’s tough.
Jonathan Cannon (CHW) vs DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
He looks fantastic at times when he spots everything and then he leaves stuff over the plate and it’s gone. There’s potential here if he finds that rhythm, but you really shouldn’t go for it unless you’re desperate for a QS.
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs ARI (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Sigh. The splitter went 2/29 whiffs and we saw a ton of misses armside as he couldn’t quite get comfortable on the hill (he did get squeezed on a sinker for a walk, though). He isn’t locked in, though you don’t have to drop now with the Tigers up next. Just recalibrate your opinion of Houck if you haven’t yet.
Game of the Day
Ty Madden vs. Davis Martin – On a day with so many fun ace matchups, I’ll turn to an MLB debut that I have…low expectations for. Still awfully curious to see what we get from Madden.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)