Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ STL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 73 pitches.
After watching Bubba Chandler enter in relief on Wednesday, Braxton Ashcraft had his leash extended in St. Louis and he took full advantage of it: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 73 pitches (ND). Last week, we saw a filthy pitcher demolish Rockie Road and now he’s building momentum with this gem against the Cardinals. You’re tempted, I can feel it.
First and foremost, it’s the Dodgers next, so pipe down. Maybe he’s worth a stream against the Orioles or Nationals after, but I’d be cautious trusting Ashcraft even in those for multiple reasons. To start, we don’t know the Pirates’ plan. He could be held at 75 pitches, pulled back, turned into a piggy-back with Chandler again, etc. It’s no lock that he’ll be free for 80+ pitches in September and that’s limiting what looks to be a somewhat low ceiling in the first place.
Then there’s the actual arsenal. The 92 mph slider is the star of the show and as long as he can throw strikes with it constantly (89% here is an obvious outlier), then he at least has a chance. The hard 96/97 mph four-seamer is sure to allure excitable fantasy managers, but it’s empty velocity: The pitch carries below-average marks in all Fan4+ metrics of vert, extension, and VAA. His changeup and curve are unruly and are rarely executed consistently, leading to the fella breaking the Huascar Rule.
I’m labeling him a Young Gun for now. Hopefully we see growth in both the repertoire and his approach by spring next year, to the point that he demands your attention in 12-teamers. For now, the journey ain’t worth the plunder.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Will Warren (NYY) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
He had four runs off the books due to a Volpe error, but it elongated the inning and led to an inefficient night in Chicago. That said, Warren is not commanding his arsenal well these days, with his sweeper returning just 1/15 whiffs and a paltry 47% strike rate + just four curveballs and one changeup. Naaaaah man, you gotta find those pitches if you’re to be trusted. I’m not sure I’m loving his start against the Astros next and if you’re making tough cuts, Warren should be one of the first.
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
Even against the Pirates, I’ll give Mikolas the Gold Star. Let’s be honest, Mikolas performing against any team is worthy of a trophy, right?
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. So, uh, how are those four prospects in Chicago looking?
Nabil Crismatt (ARI) @ MIL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
A Dusty Donut is a shocking treat under the Crismatt tree in Milwaukee and we may get one more start as he hosts the Rangers in Arizona. The changeup wasn’t as filthy as we’ve seen, but there is a chance he can pull off a decent start if you’re desperate. I suggest chasing something else, though.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 81 pitches.
Ayyyy, we’ll take that from Povich. A King Cole in Fenway is no easy task for the youngin’ and even without a good change (three hits, one whiff, zero outs, one HR), the four-seamer and curve were about to do enough to survive. I’m not convinced it’s sustainable quite yet, though, and I’m not interested in the Padres next. I’d circle his start hosting the Pirates after that.
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
Even against the Marlins, The Adobe finds a way to be so boring. Just two strikes. A mid 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Just five frames without a dub. Are you trying to make us feel indifferent? BECAUSE IT’S WORKING. I’ll continue to suggest streaming off your wire instead.
Adam Mazur (MIA) @ NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 60 pitches.
Oh hey, Mazur is back. And he’s actually pretty interesting with the #1 Fan4+ four-seamer of the day with a 126+ mark. Wait, how?! Well, he’s sitting 95/96 mph with 18-19″ of vert and a 1.2 HAVAA. That’s some hard-to-hit heat if he can locate it. Narrator: He didn’t. Well, it had a 71% zone rate, but only two upstairs among the fourteen thrown. Wait, that seems low. Yeah, he split heaters with an awfully mediocre sinker (why?!) and a decent gyro slider at 87 mph and I don’t quite get it. Mazur could be interesting if he leaned into that four-seamer upstairs, and until I see that, I’m not interested. A dark horse upside here if that clicks overnight.
Logan Webb (SFG) vs CHC (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 94 pitches.
Awwwww yeah. Webb had elite precision with the BSB to LHB with four-seamers, sinkers, and four-seamers up + changeups and sweepers down, and also dotted sweepers away and sinkers inside to RHB. This is the way. Stupid Cubs and their solo shots getting in the way.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ SFG (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Yes, even without a Win and two HRs from Adames that led to all three runs. In fact, his heaters were spotted incredibly well upstairs and both those longballs were in great spots, including this one. He’s still dope y’all.
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
A PQS from Freeland is always a night to celebrate. I’m happy for you, fella.
Jason Alexander (HOU) vs COL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
He was cruising with all the strikeouts and a Gallows Pole ready for the mantle until three straight frames of allowing a run, sacrificing his Win along the way. At least you still get to keep the award. I’m terribly sad to say that due to Alexander recording a Philly, I’ll have to take the streaming “Loss” in my daily rankings and I’m still sour about those two solo shots. That changeup went 11/34 whiffs dang it, how dare they allow the ball to leave the park twice? If he loses his rotation spot now, it would mean NYY and @TOR on the horizon, which isn’t something you’d want to hold for anyway.
Davis Martin (CHW) vs NYY (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
The cutter has been the catalyst for Martin’s surprising performances this year and the pitch was barely a factor at just nine throws and only four strikes. This was four-seamer/change against LHB, which wasn’t executed as well as it needed to be. I’m not one to stream Martin a ton in the first place, but I can see 15-teamers jumping back in for some of @MIN, @DET, and @CLE next. One if not two of those starts can work.
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
He got bamboozled in the first with a pair of walks and a trio of hits for three runs, but was relatively solid for the next five frames. I kinda love that he’s going high four-seamers these days with his flat attack angle and I’m a bit shocked he didn’t earn more strikes with his changeup away to LHB given his precision around the corner. All is fine here.
Jose Quintana (MIL) vs ARI (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 95 pitches.
Oh jeez. This was not Quintana’s night. His changeup couldn’t buy a strike (I’ve never seen it hold either a sub 10% zone rate or sub 10% chase rate and the slowball held both at a 12% strike rate) and it forced his sinker far too much inside the zone. This was hard to watch and now we drop for the Phillies next. If the command is back to decency, we’re rolling with him @TEX after.
Cal Quantrill (ATL) @ PHI (L) – 3.1 IP, 9 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 53 pitches.
Ah. Mmmm. Yes. This is exactly what we don’t want.
Game of the Day
Jonah Tong & Payton Tolle Debuts?! – Both will be making their MLB debuts in different games and y’all can be sure I’ll be excited to watch both.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
