Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) vs PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches.
There are random starts we circle in September from pitchers unlikely to be hoarded across the league and it’s lovely when things go just right. Andrew Alvarez’s prophecy came to life against the Pirates on Saturday, cruising for 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches (ND). This was great! Let’s roll with him again! Whoa whoa whoa, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Alvarez doesn’t fit the mold of southpaws with a changeup we’ve seen this season. The slowball exists and generated a pair of outs, but the approach is centered around sliders and curveballs down-and-in to RHB, taunting batters to keep their focus off his poor 91/92 mph four-seamer. Those breakers have a unique trait that makes the rookie a major leaguer: A gyro slider + a two-plane curve deeper on the same diagonal plane at the same 81/82 mph velocity. It makes it difficult for hitters to determine how aggressively they should attack the depth of each pitch, creating whiffs on the slider and groundouts galore on the curve.
Is it enough to trust against the Mets and SlySox in his final two starts? Probably not. I find it difficult to watch Koufax aid so many balls in play and believe in a replication against a much stronger offense. However, if Alvarez impresses against the Mets, it may entice us to take a chance during the final weekend.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Brandon Sproat (NYM) vs TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 70 pitches.
Phew. I wasn’t too impressed with Sproat’s feel in this one (sweepers leaked frontdoor often to RHB + his entire attack to LHB came with highly questionable locations), however the sinker was fabulous against RHB, jamming incessantly for plenty of outs and free strikes. LHB are the classic question for sinker/sweeper arms and it’s why I’m concerned for 2026, and some could BIG BRAIN themselves out of a start against the Nationals due to that concern. I’m still going for it, especially with the Marlins after for one more outing.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 90 pitches.
Whoaaaa 20″ of vert on the four-seamer led to a 19% SwStr rate on the pitch across 60% usage, and if he was able to execute a decent secondary in any two-strike count, he would have had more than four punchouts. Sadly, he returned 0/36 whiffs across all secondaries, with the cutter leading the way at 28% usage and just 56% strikes. If he could just find a legit secondary…
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ NYM (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
The. Mad. MAN. He’s figured it out. But he went just 4.1 innings and it was the Mets being the Mets. Shhhhh, zero earned runs! It was another start of 10% fastballs, leaning into cutters and sliders for a whopping number of whiffs, but yes, there’s still some polish left to add to be a little more efficient. I don’t want to let Corbin’s redemption season get lost among all the other storylines this season. Pretty dang cool for the veteran southpaw.
Parker Messick (CLE) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.
Messiiiiiick. The command was better with four-seamer and changeup separation and we’ll endure the Dusty Donut for a solid QS/Dub package. Don’t expect the punchouts and the WHIP may be a little elevated. Plan accordingly if you want to stream against the Twins.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) @ TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 63 pitches.
Oh dang. That’s a Gold Star for Sugano with this gorgeous line, even without a dub. I was shocked to see the sweeper get featured more than the splitter to LHB, and the sinker fortunately found gloves against RHB. It’s likely an oasis in the desert of productive starts, so don’t do anything silly with NYY up twice to end his season.
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 109 pitches.
Funny enough, the slider wasn’t at its peak and enabled more hits than any pitch against the RHB-lineup of Rockie Road. I hope you didn’t rage drop Cease… but I get not having trust for @NYM and MIL ahead. I’m going to do it, personally, but the risk is clearly there.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.
There it is. The Prince that was Promised. The BSB was gorgeous to LHB via dotted four-seamers up and changeups filling the zone underneath, while the rare RHB saw nearly exclusive fastballs upstairs and they overwhelmed batters with 99 mph heat. This dude is for real, y’all, and it wasn’t even due to the legit slider in his backpocket: Just elite four-seamers and good changeups.
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ ATL (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna bore. Two strikeouts, eh? Suitman whispers into my ear. He’s at what?! 95 mph?! Uhhhh, he’s clearly fatigued. Remember, Brown has been around 97 mph for the season (sometimes 98!) and when he dipped, it was 96/97 mph. We saw a drop last time and here’s another. Still good enough, sure, but the dude needs a rest, especially before the playoffs (then again, just two games up on the Rangers right now with a HUGE series this week). I think you have to start him for the next two games, yet I can’t help but express a little concern for SEA and @ATH. You’ve expressed concerns about Hunter all year, including the pre-season where you were SO WRONG. Yeah, that’s absolutely true. Brown has a huge miss on my part. Do what you want, y’all.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Golden Goal. Thanks for being there when we need you the most. So cool to see the sweeper take a step forward with 9/21 whiffs, all against RHB. Look at him. Over 180 innings this year and two more starts to go. We always said he’d be Top 10 if he had the volume and, well, he’s top 10.
Max Fried (NYY) @ BOS (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 105 pitches.
Ehhhh, we’ll take this Dusty Donut. That WHIP hurts, though props to Fried for wiggling out of trouble. Keep riding the fella.
Sonny Gray (STL) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
Not quite the precision of his peak, but Sonny has highly effective when executing his arsenal, and he did a great job of avoiding mistakes. We had a hint of Careful, Icarus here after getting pulled in the sixth after the first batter reached, who, of course, scored later in the frame. I don’t see why you wouldn’t continue with Sonny through the end in a repeat matchup against Milwaukee in St. Louis + a date in San Francisco.
Davis Martin (CHW) @ CLE (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
He plodded his way through this. He’s a 15-teamer Toby and this sure fits the bill. For 12-teamers, it’s not a whole lot to write home about. With the Padres and Yankees next, Martin should stay on the wire.
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
It’s nothing special and a little underwhelming, but Mad Max continues to be helpful over harmful. Keep on keepin’ on.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna meh again. The Sneks were hacking at everything, leading to twenty-six foul balls and just seven called strikes on the outing. That’s not right. No, it’s not. This should normalize for next time when he faces Cleveland.
Charlie Morton (DET) @ MIA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.
Morton. Buddy. THIS was the start we were waiting for. You’ve had your curve working, you had the best matchup, and suddenly, all you can muster is a 25% CSW on the hook with just four whiffs?! Cutters and four-seamers around 50% strikes?! Sigh. Welp, no need to hold for Atlanta, obviously.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
A PQS from the JunkBaller is a lovely result, even if non-QS leagues leave the market with a light bag of groceries. Sorry hun, not much to salvage today. His command isn’t the peak we saw at times across the summer, and I’d hold off on taking the dive on the road against the Rangers in most situations. Not the worst dire play.
Colin Rea (CHC) vs TBR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 85 pitches.
Blegh. We had a Careful, Icarus with his third run scoring after hitting the showers in the sixth, stripping the Win and ruining the ERA. I’m not too thrilled with Rea moving forward, but yes, there’s a path toward production of some kind in Cincinnati. Bucket Rea as a minimal needle pusher. Like a dealer?! What?! No, pushing the needle toward winning your league. Oh. Much better. Ya think?!
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. I’m not sure how to rank Drew for next year. Will the Rays just keep him on the same leash or will they let him be a Cy Young contender and toss 90+ pitches regularly? I kinda want to still start him against the Jays, though I get streaming instead for a possible Win or QS instead.
Ryan Bergert (KCR) @ PHI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
Simply put, he gets the Jays next and it’s easy to ignore Bergert the rest of the way. I wonder if he adds some velo in the off-season and takes off in 2026. Without that, I wonder if the breakers + 93 mph heater is enough to get drafted in 12-teamers.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 75 pitches.
Aces gonna disappoint. The Cardinals were ready for the heater and despite throwing strikes with breakers and the four-seamer, they were able to get to him. I’m not shocked by the sub-80 pitch count after his seven frames before, but I am surprised a strike-throwing Jay Mis allowed eight baserunners and four runs with just four strikeouts. Welp, he’ll likely have a longer leash in a repeat matchup in St. Louis up next, and I’m starting him without question.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs NYY (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
He’s a high-end Toby against an elite offense. Not much of a shocker, while hosting the Athletics in Fenway is okay in my book. The changeup should return more than 38% strikes.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
This isn’t supposed to work. But a Win! Is Walker the latest version of Rick Porcello? DON’T YOU DARE. Verlander deserved that Cy Young.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) @ SFG (ND) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 67 pitches.
Womp womp. We saw elite command last start and here was the floor. Your guess is as good as mine to what we get in another date with the Giants up next. I’m leaning more of the same (fatigue could be effecting Kershaw), but it’s a toss-up.
Luis Severino (ATH) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches.
Yes, it was the Reds Carpet, but it was also in Sacré Verde. Immovable object, unstoppable force, blah blah blah. He’s still a decent Toby stream in PNC Park next time out.
Mitch Farris (LAA) @ SEA (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
It was a day without great changeup command (albeit, the slothball still recorded five punchouts despite wrestling with it across the full outing), forcing Farris to turn to more sliders against RHB. They weren’t terrible, but Farris needs to be pristine to survive with his ghastly 90 mph heater, southpaw or not. Don’t spin the Farris wheel.
Bradley Blalock (COL) @ SDP (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 69 pitches.
Blalock has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
Hunter Greene (CIN) @ ATH (ND) – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 84 pitches.
Aces gonna…Bleeeeeegh. He struggled getting his slider over the plate and merged with a pair of homeruns, Greene disappointed us all. Don’t worry, the velocity still averaged over 99 mph. Brush it off. Whatareyagonnado.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs HOU (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
Yeaaaaah. This is the Elder that we expected to see across his last four outings. We can put this one to rest, yeah? NO! 17 whiffs! Fine, the slider performed well, but everything else was hit hard (and some of those sliders!) + the Tigers are kinda scary. I can’t endorse this.
Logan Webb (SFG) vs LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 97 pitches.
Oh no. He didn’t pitch that poorly, but he got Singled Out (and an Ohtani solo shot), and left with the bases loaded to kick off the fifth, with all three runners coming around to score. And guess what? He gets them again! Isn’t that great? No Nick. It’s not. Oh. I guess it isn’t. It’s a coin-flip, y’all. Good luck.
Game of the Day
Tyler Glasnow vs. Robbie Ray – Hard not to love this one.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
