Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Eduardo Rodriguez left yesterday’s game with tightness in his left lat. It’s unclear how long he’s out for, but expect him to enter the season on the IL. The Diamondbacks don’t have an appealing option to slide into the rotation spot, reluctantly selecting between Tommy Henry, Slade Cecconi, Bryce Jarvis, Blake Walston, Cristian Mena, and Corbin Martin. I’d guess Cecconi or Henry and neither is worth your attention.
However, the largest impact could be Ryne Nelson as he’ll start against Rockie Road in his first outing of the year, not the Yankees. I have my theories about the Colorado offense early in year (if they haven’t played in Coors yet, are they better on the road than we normally see them?) and Nelson will still get Atlanta in his second start, but his first start takes place on Sunday, allowing for Nelson to grant teams value before the end of opening weekend.
The Dodgers have listed Emmet Sheehan’s IL trip as “right forearm inflammation” – not shoulder sorness as previous reported. This could be a larger issue, though he was throwing bullpens before his trip to Seoul with the team.
The Mets have officially listed Tylor Megill as the fifth starter and have demoted José Butto to the minors. If Megill doesn’t pan out early, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets made a quick swap.
Expected Rotations By Team
I will be covering this morning’s Dodgers vs. Padres game in Thursday’s article. I want to be able to watch the game without prior knowledge at 3:00pm ET at The Other Half Brewery in Williamsburg, Brooklyn as part of the Rates & Barrels live podcast event. Come on through! I’ll be there from 3:00pm through well into the evening – 6:00pm start for the live podcast.
Statcast Games – TV
BAL vs. TOR
PHI vs. DET
STL vs. NYM
Cole Irvin (BAL) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. Velocity is back down to 92 mph now and…blegh. 1/75 whiffs. Let’s not target this one and wait to see what he’s like in his first start against the Royals. I originally was interested, but this is so far away from the hype we saw out of the gate from Irvin.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Not great for Bassitt, but it looks like he wanted to focus just on sinkers and cutters here, which made up roughly 75% of all his pitches. That’s not the #BassittWay. Bassitt knows how to take advantage of the spring and it’s important not to read into this, nor his velocity drop of one tick.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s still down about two ticks, but he is nibbling the edges well with his change and curve, while the sinker is generally armside, merging with strike-heavy cutters. The command rhythm is generally there (fewer changeups than expected, though), but is the velocity drop too much once the regular season arrives? Probably, especially with a start against Atlanta to kick things off.
Jack Flaherty (DET) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. I’m going to be raising Flaherty quite a bit on The List, but not into “Top 40” realm or anything like that. However, he should be more considered than I have been suggesting, as Flaherty is outlining that his velocity jump is real, sitting 94 mph here and ranging from 91-97 mph as he saves heat for later in at-bats when needed, as every pitcher should. I also love how Flaherty isn’t chaotic and lives around the zone with both his heater and slider. My biggest question – how good is his four-seamer? He actually has a solid attack angle with above-average extension, but its movement is dead-zone. It means: A) Velocity is a huge deal to protect it. B) Locating middle-to-low actively hurts him and C) He’s volatile given the ease of HRs if he doesn’t locate well on the heater. I’m curious how it shakes out once we get legit data in season and I’m all for grabbing Flaherty and starting him against the White Sox and Athletics and see where that goes. Just don’t get too enamored if it doesn’t work out.
Lance Lynn (STL) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s 1-2 ticks down on the heater (likely a veteran saving their bullets during the spring) without anything of interest in the rest of his arsenal. Let’s not.
Sean Manaea (NYM) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. He’s down to 93 mph, and went 75% heaters, while returning just 1/16 whiffs on everything else. This ain’t it, y’all.
Statcast Games – No TV
MIA vs. STL
CLE vs. COL
Yonny Chirinos (MIA) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. The Marlins are weighing their options for the SP #5 spot out of the gate and are likely to have some crew of Chirinos, Hoeing, and Smeltzer to get through a few games. Not ideal in the slightest, though it does prevent a yo-yo situation for Max Meyer as the spot’s vacancy light should dim shortly.
Kyle Gibson (STL) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh hey Gibson. It’s gonna be that kind of year, isn’t it.
Jaime Barría (CLE) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. The Guardians have a spot to fill with Gavin Williams on the IL to kick off the year and Barria could help out with Carlos Carrasco, Tyler Beede, Xzavion Curry, and Hunter Gaddis. Not relevant for fantasy leagues, sadly.
Dakota Hudson (COL) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. COL story, bro. But six strikeouts! He actually spotted sinkers armside and sliders down-and-gloveside stupid well and deserved this one. Sliders earned six whiffs and 50%+ CSW! But yeah, it’s Coors. It’s also Hudson, and you never know which way that river bends.
No Statcast – TV
TBR vs. BOS
OAK vs. TEX
CIN vs. LAA
ARI vs. CHC
KCR vs. SFG
Tyler Alexander (TBR) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Whoa, five innings?! The Rays may turn to T-Lex as their SP #5 with the Bradley injury, though I imagine some traditional Tampa Bay shenanigans with other bulk arms in the mix. Don’t chase this.
Kutter Crawford (BOS) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. I didn’t love his approach in the first at all (what’s with two-strike four-seamers with intent down the middle?!), but he adjusted and used more secondaries after it, making for a smooth final 4.2 frames. Crawford’s four-seamer was successful last year due to its high 60% hiLoc, embracing its elite vertical break, though Crawford’s terrible extension make his 93/94 mph heater look more like 92, opening the door for damage if he’s not as precise as last year. I’m a touch concerned and I think I’ve overrated the heater a touch over the winter, though his slider, kutter, curve, and change/split are looking great at the moment. Not to mention, going about 70 pitches here makes him set up for ~85 in his first outing. I’m still in, just not over-the-moon to get him.
Yerry Rodríguez (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He throws hard – 97 mph! – but the extension, iVB, and HAVAA are all mid, unfortunately. His slider in 2023 was 99th percentile in vertical break…that is, none at all. However, it’s possible he has a new slider this season, which worked well in this one, especially down-and-in to LHB. I’m curious to see some proper data on Yerry, especially given the lack of depth in Texas that could have him making a start before the start of May. It’s a clear “wait-and-see” for now. I’m still skeptical this legit works out, but he could certainly be different than the ~14 IP we saw last year.
Hunter Greene (CIN) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. He’s apparently just trying to throw strikes, but hot dang, this isn’t what we want to see. That new curve and splitter doesn’t seem to be too gamechanging and the heater is still much more hittable than you’d think as it hovers 100 mph. Wild, I know.
Reid Detmers (LAA) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. The slider was fantastic and it’s exactly what sold me this time last year and in 2022. It breaks the Huascar Rule, sadly, not to mention how the pitch can suddenly disappear throughout the season. My heart says yes, but my body and soul say no.
José Suarez (LAA) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. The Angels have Suarez and Soriano as their two backup options and I’m pining for Soriano given the mystery box factor. Suarez isn’t it, so why not give Soriano a shot first when the time comes? For our fantasy teams? Oh, no. Wait on that one, absolutely.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. As reported above, he left his game with lat tightness and is expected to hit the IL. Bummer.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is still a thing, I guess. I wonder how long the Cubs will put up with it…or if Hendricks can find a command rhythm to make it work. Okay, the former is the real question.
Seth Lugo (KCR) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. I’m a bit torn on Lugo as few believed in Lugo during the year last year (hey, I was in on it!) but now it’s viewed positively in retrospect and I’m not as sold. He was a Toby who had some pretty mediocre runs and without a major shift in approach this year, it’s awfully precarious. Lugo could very well be another sneaky streamer all year or end up with a 4.00+ ERA and 1.20+ WHIP without enough Wins to make it worthwhile. So, he’s like the seventh tier or arm you go for? Sure, he’s a face of Pitcher Group 7 – the group that you ignore but sometimes can provide value. You’re not going to actual keep this joke in the future, are you. Absolutely not.
No Statcast – No TV
MIL vs. CLE
COL vs. SEA
MIA vs. HOU
Colin Rea (MIL) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s locked into the rotation and he’ll have his moments during the year as a desperate streamer. Kinda hoped he was going to keep soaring this spring to make me feel a little better entering the year.
Logan Allen (CLE) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. We’ve completely ignored Allen this spring and I guess that’s the right thing to do? It’s @SEA to kick off the year and that’s not the worst option, but he just doesn’t do enough to excite me. At least he could have a solid defense behind him?
Austin Gomber (COL) – 2.1 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. COL story, bro.
Casey Lawrence (SEA) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. The Mariners are making it clear Lawrence and Hancock are the two backup options should they need help in their rotation and I don’t think Lawrence does enough as a sinker/slider guy. There’s not enough oomph there.
A.J. Puk (MIA) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. I wish there was TV or Data or something. This was a strong Houston lineup that did get to him in the first, but to see Puk go 5+ frames is a great sign. Oh, and you know, 8-to-0 strikeouts to walks is lovely. Go get him – he gets the Pirates then Angels in his first two starts.
Brandon Bielak (HOU) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Bielak is what, the 3rd backup SP option behind Blanco and Arregheti? And what if he does start? You’ll forget it the moment you finish his SP Roundup blurb.
What To Watch on TV Today
Spring SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
CASEY MIZE VS. LOUIE VARLAND
Bowden Francis – Ready to go?
Marco Gonzales – Decent for early stream vs. MIA?
Rhett Lowder – NOT ON TV AND I HATE IT
Jordan Hicks – How's…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 20, 2024