The Major League Rule 5 Draft took place on December 11th at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. This event gave every team a chance to find talent that could improve their rosters without giving up any assets via trade. For players, it’s a chance for a fresh start with an organization that guarantees a spot on the big league roster if they can stick. For teams, it’s a low-risk way to take a chance on a player they think has been undervalued.
The 2024 Draft saw no shortage of action. 15 players found new homes via the draft during the major league portion of the event. While the vast majority of Rule 5 selections are inconsequential in the grand scheme of baseball history, there are exceptions. Anthony Santander became a mainstay in Baltimore after being poached from Cleveland, and both Brad Keller and Garrett Whitlock launched their careers with new teams after a change of scenery provided by the Draft.
It is way too early to tell if similar success stories will occur in the aftermath after the 2024 edition of the Rule 5 Draft, but here are some early takeaways and predictions about some of the players who will don new uniforms in 2025.
Shane Smith Finds a Home in Chicago
Despite a dismal 2024 season that saw the White Sox finish with the worst record in modern baseball history (41-121), the team is making moves that indicate they have a plan. GM Chris Getz got an impressive prospect haul for Garrett Crochet and has added some intriguing pieces to their pitching staff. So far, Chicago has added Bryse Wilson, Cam Booser, and, the most exciting, Shane Smith.
After pitching just 10.1 innings at the NCAA level, the Milwaukee Brewers signed Smith as an undrafted free agent in 2021. After a short stint in the Complex League in 2022 (3.0 innings), he broke out in a big way in 2023. Smith registered a 1.96 ERA over three levels, striking out 86 batters in 59.2 innings. He continued to find success last season, appearing in 32 games (16 starts) with a WHIP of 1.04 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.8.
For a team that had the third-worst ERA (4.67), second-worst WHIP (1.44), and fifth-worst batting average allowed (.255) in baseball last season, adding a guy with those numbers was a no-brainer. Smith wasn’t able to break into the Brewers’ impressive pitching staff, so Chicago was the lucky beneficiary. It’s impossible to completely predict how Smith will perform in his first taste of MLB action, but his AAA Statcast data indicate he has the stuff to stick in the show.
Shane Smith 2024 AAA Statcast Data
The NL Central Grabs Bench Depth
The NL Central is poised to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball next season. The Cubs have been aggressive, adding Kyle Tucker to their lineup. Other teams in the division haven’t made quite as big of a splash, but they’re all adding pieces to their talented young cores. The Cardinals are depleted, but can you ever truly rule them out? Every little helps in a division so competitive, and two teams took the Rule 5 Draft as a chance to upgrade their bench.
First, the Reds selected Cooper Bowman, formerly of the Athletics, with the seventh pick of the draft in Dallas. The multi-position infielder will be 25 on Opening Day and can fill multiple spots for the Reds should they need him. Bowman primarily played second base and center field last season but filled in at third and shortstop for the Las Vegas Aviators. His bat was okay, putting together a 12-homer, 112-wRC+ season between AA and AAA.
His real asset is his speed. Bowman finished with 43 steals in 118 games in 2024. While he struggled mightily in AAA (.218 AVG, 48 wRC+), his versatility in the field and the speed threat he possesses should keep him in the Reds’ plans in 2025. Matt McLain has second base locked down, but should TJ Friedl fall into a slump, or another player succumbs to injury, Bowman will be there to step up.
The former A’s prospect isn’t the flashiest acquisition the Reds will make this offseason. However, his defensive versatility and speed will make him a player to pay attention to in Cincinnati. The Reds have been plagued with bad injury luck, especially on the infield in the last few seasons, so having too much depth will not be a problem for them. While his fantasy impact will likely be minimal, Bowman serves a valuable role as a guy who can step into a variety of roles when called upon.
Three picks later, the Cubs grabbed their own bench-bat, landing Gage Workman from the Detroit Tigers. Bowman and Workman are drastically different players, with the latter being a bat-first power threat who can play a decent third base. The 25-year-old hit 18 home runs with an .843 OPS with AA Erie last season and added 30 steals as well.
His glove won’t keep him in the lineup above his bat, as he had 19 errors between second, third, and short last season, but like Bowman, his positional versatility makes him valuable. Chicago still has some question marks around who’s going to be their primary third-baseman next season. Matt Shaw is currently slated to break camp as the starter despite never playing a game in the majors. If the Cubs decide to keep their top hitting prospect in the minors, Workman could serve as a “bridge” for the Cubs to use until they deem that Shaw is ready to take on the hot corner.
It’s expected that they will add another infielder to play third via free agency or trade, especially after freeing up the Cody Bellinger money. Alex Bregman is still a free agent, and the Cubs have already added one Astro so far this offseason. In the trade market, Alec Bohm has reportedly been made available by the Phillies, but there so far haven’t been any links to the Cubs. There have also been discussions about moving Nico Hoerner to address issues with the pitching staff, which could force Shaw into the lineup at second, freeing up third for Workman. None of these hypotheticals have materialized yet, but Jed Hoyer has been aggressive so far this offseason. It’s too early to say for sure what Workman’s role with the Cubs will be next season, but his presence gives the Cubs bench cover they lacked last season.
The Braves Double-Dipped
Atlanta was the only team to pick two players in the major league portion of the Draft, selecting Anderson Pilar and Christian Cairo from the Marlins and Guardians respectively.
Anderson Pilar, 26 y/o RHP
The Braves’ bullpen was one of the best in baseball last season. The relief unit pitched to a 3.31 ERA (3rd in MLB), allowing the fewest walks (167) and limiting opponents to just 53 homers (4th in MLB). Pilar could be a breakout piece of that bullpen next year. He pitched excellently over three levels in the minors last season, registering a 2.64 ERA and striking out 71 batters in 58 innings. His unique cutter-slider combination gave hitters fits, and it will be interesting to see how it translates to the majors.
The slider has been his best pitch in AAA so far due to the sharp vertical movement it has compared to the cutter, with nearly a 10 mph difference between the two offerings. He’s also good at limiting free passes (2.0 walks-per-nine), meaning if his arsenal is effective against MLB competition, he will be able to go right at hitters and won’t have to worry about walks driving up his pitch count. It’s too early to tell, but Pilar could be a fixture in Atlanta’s bullpen in 2025.
Christian Cairo – 23 y/o INF
As for Cairo, his role in the organization is pretty clear-cut. The Braves have added four infielders on minor league deals so far, filling a need for depth in the infield among their affiliates. Cairo fits that bill. There is no question on who will be the starters for the Braves in the infield. Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Orlando Arcia will all retain their spots in the lineup, however, it’s still unclear who will fill the backup roles on the bench. Cairo is a low-risk acquisition who can fill the need for depth in Atlanta.
Cairo’s main asset is his defense. In over 900 innings in the field last season, he registered just nine errors, playing all three infield positions and left field for the Guardians’ minor league affiliates. If he receives regular playing time for whatever reason, he likely won’t be a factor in fantasy as neither his bat nor speed carry tremendous value. He’s a career .221 hitter in the minors and has stolen 72 bags in 357 games. Cairo does have a career walk rate above 15%, so he’s not a total liability in the lineup, but outside of that, he provides very little upside.
Both players should see action in Atlanta at some point in 2025, but fans should expect Pilar to make a larger impact on the organization than his fellow Rule 5 Draft pick.
Featured Image By: Ethan Kaplan