The List 8/3 – Ranking The Top 100 Starting Pitchers Every Monday

We’re back in the regular groove of Monday afternoon updates of The List! As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• It feels like there’s more injuries and shifts in performances than we typically see in just ten days of a season, let alone one with so many teams missing games due to COVID-19 illnesses. Remember, I have to react stronger this season given the shorter year than I do normally and I will no doubt be wrong plenty this season.
• Don’t forget, if you’d like to see how I craft The List and ask questions as I change things on the fly, I live-stream making The List every Monday at 1:00 pm EST on Twitter. Swing by next week!

 

• With Clayton Kershaw returning with 92 mph velocity (up two ticks from last year!), there is an innate (-1) granted to everyone outside the Top 10. And yes, I had to move Shane Bieber into Tier 1. The guy is stupid good.
• Staying inside the Top 10, Walker Buehler will likely move to #5 next week, but for now, we need to wait until he’s fully ramped up to a place where seven innings are attainable.

 

• The Top 20 saw some changes that may surprise. Charlie Morton’s velocity dip has led to a disappointing opening to the season, forcing me to push high ceiling arms who have performed effectively ahead.
• Luis Castillo takes a small dip as his teammate Sonny Gray has been outstanding and understandably the better choice at the moment.

 

• It wasn’t easy to move Blake Snell out of the Top 20, but with another start under fifty pitches – and not of quality – there isn’t as much time to consider him above Kenta Maeda, who has a wonderful schedule and is in rhythm with his secondary stuff.
• Tyler Glasnow is still on the outside looking in as his curveball disappeared over the weekend, showing off his volatility we hoped would never return.

 

• Two major stories were the incredible performances from Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, who have shot up the ranks in a heartbeat. I loved what I saw from both, giving Civale the edge as he has performed to his ability on two starts thus far. I’m taking a leap based on just one outing from Plesac, but it was a ceiling we see from very few behind him and could stick through the year. I debated it plenty and while a move to the 40s could follow down the road, I’d favor Plesac over the dramatic dip in velocity from Madison Bumgarner. 
• Some may be expecting a larger fall for Luke Weaver after allowing double-digit ER across his first two games, but I trust his stuff just like we did with Zac Gallen. Stick with him, I believe you’ll be rewarded for it.

 

• Mike Minor’s shift of approach has me a little worried as he focused more on sliders paired with a slower fastball, while the ascension of Dylan Bundy is everything we’ve wanted. He’s Top 50 and it’s a lovely thing with more sliders and fewer fastballs fueling his excellent start.
• I can’t say no to Nate Pearson’s excellent slider and moments of dominance against the Nationals, though I had to move him into Tier 5 as we start to move toward pitchers with a large floor below. He’s not as sure of a thing as you want him to be.

 

• Kris Bubic and Cristian Javier also made their MLB debuts last week and have earned a spot on The List. I’m lower on Javier than most given his low stamina (he showed terrible signs before 50 pitches!) but he’s worth a flier pickup in most leagues.
• Bubic could turn into a Toby type with a touch of strikeout upside fueled by an elite changeup, but for now, he reminds me a bit of Jason Vargas. Hopefully he blossoms into the Vargas that created the famous rule.

 

• Robbie Ray took an expected dip given his failure to fine-tune his command despite a new arm circle. It wasn’t further as I think he’s closer to locking in than the recent lines would suggest, but I understand jumping ship for an arm below him.
• I’ve given the same treatment to Matthew Boyd, who hasn’t gotten the feel for his slider and curveball just yet. It could show up as soon as his next start, but there’s a hard decision to make if you should take that chance or not.

 

• Saturday saw a flurry of forgotten names make legit strides in their ability, forcing a meteoric rise. Tyler Chatwood’s cutter is working wonders as it gave him confidence to throw fastballs for strikes, Yusei Kikuchi added a tick of velocity with a new cutter that misses a ton of bats, and even Kyle Freeland is feeling like his 2018 self with much better command and a heavier secondary approach.
• Chriss Bassitt also deserves your attention once again with a solid sinker getting the job done for Oakland. With a good offense and defense behind him, Bassitt is making the case for Spider-Man or maybe something more.

 

• It’s nice to see Masahiro Tanaka make his return and have instant success on the field. I wonder if his splitter will be consistent through the year after last year’s massive volatility, but for now, he should be added just as a strong Win candidate each night.
• Anthony DeSclafani also returned from injury and becomes a solid asset given the Reds lax schedule throughout the year. Don’t create high expectations, but you should be satisfied with DeSclafani in most 12-teamers.

 

• I know that John Means had a rough outing against the Yankees, but it came with a four-tick bump in his fastball velocity that forces him to be on your radar. It may take another start to harness his command, but Means with a phenomenal changeup and 95 mph can be a huge force in the league.
• With Alex Wood hitting the IL, the door remains open for Dustin May to get more innings, especially as he continues to get stretched out. He doesn’t come with the strikeout upside we’re looking for, but he should be rostered in the majority of leagues.

 

• A few pitchers are looking lost with their command, forcing me to lower them dramatically. Josh James and Dylan Cease are far from where they need to be to make you feel confident starting them, forcing me to drop them a combined 40 spots this week. I hope they prove me wrong by next Monday.
• I had to also give a major fall to Josh Lindblom after he left his sole game of the year with back cramps. We are unsure if he’ll miss time or if he’ll be limited in the short term and this haze forced me to plummet his rank for the time being.

 

• Lastly, we had many new additions to The List:
  • Randy Dobank will get some time now that Homer Bailey is on the IL. He should be decent, but nothing special.
  • Touki Toussaint has taken Mike Foltynewicz’s spot and features a fantastic curveball, but a questionable floor given his poor fastball and split-change command. Tread carefully.
  • Despite an eight strikeout performance, I’m still skeptical of David Peterson’s ceiling. His command seems decent but not great without a major whiff pitch in his arsenal. Hopefully his slider improves and I can keep lifting him up the ranks.
  • As I make my daily streamer picks, I could find myself considering any of Alec Mills, Taijuan Walker, Merrill Kelly, Marco Gonzales, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, or even Tanner Roark if they faced a weak opponent, granting all of them a spot on this week’s edition.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
5	Mike Clevinger T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
6	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Patrick Corbin	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
9	Sonny Gray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
10	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
11	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
12	Chris Paddack	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
14	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
15	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
16	Carlos Carrasco	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
17	Trevor Bauer	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+3
18	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
19	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
20	Charlie Morton	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-10
21	Kenta Maeda T3	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
22	Blake Snell	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-11
23	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
24	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
25	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
26	Brandon Woodruff	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
27	Zack Greinke	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-3
28	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
29	Dinelson Lamet	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+5
30	Aaron Civale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+42
31	Michael Soroka	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-2
32	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+5
33	Max Fried	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+5
34	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+37
35	Madison Bumgarner	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-7
36	Kyle Hendricks T4	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-9
37	Luke Weaver	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-6
38	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-6
39	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
40	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
41	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+6
42	Spencer Turnbull	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+8
43	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+8
44	Mike Minor	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-11
45	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+16
46	Griffin Canning	Ace Potential Injury Risk Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+9
47	Garrett Richards	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
48	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-9
49	Nate Pearson T5	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+20
50	Jordan Montgomery	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+2
51	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-16
52	Caleb Smith	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
53	Hyun Jin Ryu T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-12
54	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused	+2
55	Tyler Chatwood	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+36
56	Yusei Kikuchi	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+38
57	Adrian Houser	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+9
58	Matthew Boyd	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-16
59	Dustin May	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+16
60	Masahiro Tanaka	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR
61	Steven Matz	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
62	Dallas Keuchel	Toby Ratio Focused	+8
63	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+14
64	Corbin Burnes	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
65	Rich Hill	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-7
66	Ross Stripling	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-18
67	James Paxton T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-31
68	John Means	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+21
69	Pablo López	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
70	Spencer Howard	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-2
71	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
72	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-13
73	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+UR
74	Kyle Freeland	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
75	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+1
76	Asher Wojciechowski T8	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+10
77	Randy Dobnak	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
78	Yonny Chirinos	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+4
79	Touki Toussaint	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
80	Kris Bubic	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
81	Jon Gray	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
82	Kyle Gibson	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-9
83	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-21
84	Josh James	Ace Potential Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-19
85	Josh Lindblom	Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-22
86	Joey Lucchesi T9	Toby Streaming Option	-7
87	David Peterson	Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+UR
88	J.A. Happ	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-4
89	Alec Mills	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
90	Freddy Peralta	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+3
91	Carlos Rodón	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-11
92	Taijuan Walker	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
93	Merrill Kelly	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
94	Nathan Eovaldi	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	-9
95	Aníbal Sánchez	Toby Ratio Focused	-3
96	Marco Gonzales	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
97	Adam Wainwright	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
98	Matt Shoemaker	Injury Risk Toby Streaming Option	-1
99	Jon Lester	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
100	Tanner Roark	Toby Streaming Option	+UR

Photo courtesy of Minda Haas Kuhlmann (Twitter: @minda33. Instagram: @minda.haas) | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)