Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric which indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
We return from the All-Star break, and this week I’m going to attempt to rank nine breakout candidates for the second half. And yes, you could certainly argue that a couple of these guys have already broken through, but let’s consider breakouts to mean someone who hasn’t cleared 15 home runs. I know, not quite scientific criteria, but let’s have some fun. Note: I’m considering players who have seen at least 500 pitches and 75 BBE. As always, we are emphasizing Power+ upside. Let’s talk home runs.
Note: PLV metrics are current through Sunday, July 20.
Splits have been a sticking point in the Martian’s scouting report for a while, and we’re seeing that this year, with him holding a 62 wRC+ as a right-handed hitter (94 PAs). On that note, Domínguez’s Power+ jumps to 105 when isolating his numbers from the left side of the plate.
For a split-second, it seemed like Yankee skipper Aaron Boone was going to give Domínguez extended run as their leadoff hitter against RHP, but that has seemingly gone out the window, thanks primarily to the play of Trent Grisham (135 wRC+); the former Padres outfielder has demonstrated excellent swing decisions (130 DV+) and good pop (108 Power+) against right-handers. Of course, Domínguez’s fantasy upside goes upward, considering his speed. Struggles with strikeouts are another issue. It’s difficult to assess Domínguez, given he is a 22-year-old switch-hitter who has faced inconsistent playing time; however, based on what we’ve seen thus far, his home run upside seems relatively modest.
The former Yankee prospect has impressed thus far, going yard 14 times while netting a 105 wRC+ across 325 PAs. Ramírez’s 89th percentile bat speed indicates big-time raw power, but right now, his upside seems capped by a GB rate two and a half ticks above the league-average. His home at loanDepot Park ranks fourth from the bottom in Statcast’s HR factor for RHB, perhaps dropping his upside a touch. However, his recent results have been encouraging.
It’s hard not to be impressed by Atlanta’s rookie backstop; his 133 wRC+ would rank third among qualified catchers. And he’s also mauling LHP to the tune of a .300 batting average and 158 wRC+. Baldwin’s bat-to-ball ability and bat speed are pretty special. Of course, take it with a grain of salt, but similar batters listed on his Statcast page include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatís Jr. Am I cherry-picking? You bet! I see you, Josh Bell!
Full disclosure: I would have placed Baldwin ahead two spots, but I’m still leery of Marcell Ozuna’s presence, even though his results have been dreadful lately. If Ozuna gets traded, then it’ll be full speed ahead for the Baldwin breakout with the DH spot fully available.
Caglianone’s bat speed and contact ability make him a unicorn with the potential to be a left-handed version of Junior Caminero. But I have to drag him down a couple of spots because his swing decisions are on a similar level to Michael Harris II (64 DV+). Yes, it’s a very small sample size, but so far, it looks like it might take Cags some time to battle through the rookie learning curve.
5. Colt Keith
This week’s cover man has had relatively modest results, hitting eight homers, albeit with a rock-solid 117 wRC+ across 302 PAs. However, PLV thinks the 23-year-old lefty has got another gear to go, especially judging by his recent results. AJ Hinch has shielded Keith from facing left-handers, but otherwise, he’s shown faith in him by inserting their leadoff man against RHP. There seems to be a pretty good chance he makes some noise while leading a Tigers offense ranking seventh in runs scored and wRC+.
Barger’s swing decisions aren’t ideal, but there is no denying his power gains (107 Power+ last season). He looks a bit like this year’s Mark Vientos. Whether he can improve his numbers against LHP (93 wRC+in 50 PAs) is something to look out for.
3. Ben Rice
| Pitches Faced | DV+ | Contact+ | Power+ | Performance+ | SZ Judgment+ | Process+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,171 | 106 | 104 | 119 | 107 | 112 | 127 |
Rice wasn’t in last night’s lineup against Kevin Gausman, which seems odd considering his 132 wRC+ against right-handers. In fairness, his results have tapered lately, which might explain Boone’s reasoning.
But then again, Paul Goldschmidt, his main competition for at-bats, has posted a 76 wRC+ against RHP, and his lackluster results seem warranted (see below). This is all to say, I’m uncertain what’s happening in Yankee land, as far as lineup construction goes, but the PLV metrics indicate that Rice is performing really well. Playing-time questions aside, the only other knock against Rice seems to be his 93 wRC+ against LHP, although the sample size is pretty short at 70 PAs.
Anthony’s 108 Power+ doesn’t jump off the page compared to a few others, but his swing decisions (94th percentile chase rate) have been exemplary. He is also free from any playing time restraints, unlike fellow lefties, Barger and Rice. Yes, I’m deferring a bit to his status as baseball’s top prospect who boasted some of the best power in the minors before the call-up. Either way, his PLV metrics across an admittedly small sample are rock-solid, justifying the hype.
Aranda might not look like a masher with just 11 home runs through 371 PAs, but PLV thinks otherwise. His Power+ of 129 is just about two standard deviations above the mean, indicating over-the-fence upside that just hasn’t manifested in the boxscore yet. For those looking to buy-low on someone who could bang out a bunch of home runs the rest of the way, look no further.
Bonus: Austin Hays
Am I allowed to talk about a 30-year-old who has hit 20 home runs just once? No? Alright, well, I’ll keep it quick: a 116 Power+ while playing half your games in the second-friendliest park for RHB home runs (according to Statcast’s three-year rolling Park Factors) seems like a recipe for a career year.
