Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric that indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
In this week’s Power Report, we’ll rummage the waiver wire for home run help in deep leagues. I’ll be on the lookout for players with above-average Power+ who are under 15% rostered in Yahoo!. Yes, that might not be the best criteria, but let’s see who we can find.
Note: PLV metrics are current through Monday, June 23.
Wallner is hitting .210 with six home runs and a 110 wRC+ over 141 PAs, so he doesn’t pop off the page at first blush. However, you might notice his 76.3 swing speed if you pull up his Statcast page. Sure enough, the 27-year-old lefty is showing some good pop, with a 107 Power+ across 85 BBE. This isn’t anything new from Wallner; as Jeremy Heist mentioned in his Sleepers article this February, he showed signs of busting out following his second tour of duty last season, starting July 7, during which he slashed .282/.386/.559 across 62 games. Rocco Baldelli has also shown confidence in him, slotting him in the top five in seven of Minnesota’s last eight games.
Unlike Wallner, Benintendi isn’t blessed with big-time bat speed, his ranking in the 13th percentile. Nonetheless, the former Red Sox has shown signs of life, swatting his ninth dinger Wednesday afternoon against the D’Backs. His teammate, Miguel Vargas, became a popular waiver add over the past few weeks, but Benintendi might have more home run ability, his 108 Power+ (152 BBE) being far ahead of Vargas’ 90 Power+, and he is trending upward. What, you’re not excited? C’mon!
The Mets recently demoted Francisco Alvarez to Triple-A Syracuse, leaving Torrens as the man behind the dish in Queens. I’ll admit, I wanted to dismiss the 29-year-old as a prototypical all-glove, no-hit, late-blooming catcher. But that would be selling him short. He was interesting enough to warrant a deep dive from FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens a few weeks ago; I won’t recap it here, but suffice to say that despite hitting .218 with an 80 wRC+, he is not a complete zero with the stick. Granted, 148 PAs is hardly a fool-proof sample; nonetheless, you’ll notice some interesting stuff if you stumble upon his Statcast profile, including a 93.0 average EV and a 16.0% barrel rate. PLV agrees, pegging the righty-hitting Venezuelan with a 117 Power+ across 100 BBE. Torrens is not a world-beater, of course, but if you are pinched in a two-catcher league, say you just lost Gabriel Moreno, you might want to consider him.
Keith began the season dreadfully, hitting .181 with a 78 wRC+ in April. His woes were perhaps amplified by Spencer Torkelson’s red-hot start. However, he has since turned a corner and earned an audition as Detroit’s leadoff man this past weekend during their series against the Rays, which included swatting his sixth home run. Keith has also started five games at third base and should gain eligibility there soon, depending on your platform. He is also beginning to resemble the guy whose exemplary performance in the minors prompted the Tigers to secure with a six-year pact early last year. The PLV machine likes what it sees from him thus far, his Power+ being a robust 111 (155 BBE) with sound swing decisions (111 DV+).
An 11th-round pick out of Stanford, Tawa is hitting .221 and has found himself battling for playing time since Ketel Marte’s return from the IL. However, Tawa’s versatility, having logged starts at all three outfield spots, including 14 in center, could afford him more playing time with Corbin Carroll landing on the IL. He has also logged two starts at third, most recently Wednesday afternoon. Tawa’s unsettled role aside, he should be on your radar. He banged 31 dingers across 142 games in the minors last season, and has posted a 106 Power+ across 98 BBE this year.
Sticking with the Diamondbacks, Pavin Smith was a popular add earlier this year, but his results have since dwindled. However, he might be back in our lives, fresh off a double-dinger performance during Monday’s 11-0 conflagration of the White Sox. He’s likely stuck in a strong-side platoon; nonetheless, he’s flashed a 110 Power+ across 120 BBE.
Selected first overall by the Phillies in 2016, Moniak never quite panned out, emerging as a reserve outfielder for the Angels in 2023. Two years later, he’s hitting second for the Rockies, because that’s how things roll in Colorado. The 26-year-old lefty has shown above-average pop (105 Power+; 142 BBE) but without Michael Toglia’s glaring contact deficits. However, his questionable swing decisions (71 DV+) will probably keep the Rockies atop the streaming radar when they’re on the road.
Mark Vientos could be activated from the IL on Thursday, and Jesse Winker is nearing a rehab assignment, which would leave Baty’s role in a precarious spot. Still, the former first-rounder has demonstrated a 108 Power+ across 123 BBE with 93rd percentile bat speed, 100 Contact Ability+, but has been dragged down by below-average swing decisions (88 DV+).
The Guardians have struggled a ton offensively, with their 90 wRC+ranking 25th. Still, they have three players who have flashed above-average pop: Kyle Manzardo (105 Power+; 161 BBE), Gabriel Arias (109 Power+; 160 BBE), and Daniel Schneemann (109 Power+; 121 BBE). Of the three, Manzardo is probably the most interesting with a dozen home runs under his belt. However, his results have tapered off quite since his hot start.
Remember when Laureano hit 24 home runs and stole 13 bases with the A’s in 2019? You don’t? Well, fortunately, he’s lucked into playing time in Baltimore with Tyler O’Neill amidst a lingering stint on the IL. The now 30-year-old journeyman has taken advantage of the opportunity, hitting .258 with nine home runs and a 128 wRC+ across 174 PAs. His 111 Power+ (103 BBE) makes him an interesting gamble in deep leagues.
