Welcome to the eighth edition of The Stash List for pitchers!
Ground Rules
- The Stash List is for your redraft leagues and does not consider impact beyond 2023
- Only current minor league players who are expected to make an impact this season are included
- Players who have already made their MLB debuts can not have thrown more than 50 IP in MLB
- Upside, proximity, health, and opportunity are all weighed for each player
- The focus is on 12-team leagues with standard categories
- Rankings and ownership percentages will be updated weekly
Graduates
This section of the column highlights the pitchers that were on the previous week’s list but have since made their MLB debuts and are no longer considered stashes because they’re still on their team’s active roster.
Matthew Liberatore, STL (Prev. 2)
Matthew Liberatore finally made his MLB debut this week after spending much of this season as the best pitcher in AAA. He outdueled Corbin Burnes and earned the win by allowing 0 runs over 5 innings, striking out 6, and walking 3. His control was erratic at times and both his SwStr% and CSW% sat right about at league average.
He didn’t get as many chases outside the zone as you’d like to see for a strikeout pitcher, especially on his big curveball. He’s a two-pitch pitcher right now and one of them will have to take a step forward for him to continue to post these results. But the results do speak for themselves so far, and his ERA sits at the minimum.
Top 10 Pitcher Prospects to Stash
1. Gavin Williams, CLE – ETA May (1)
Gavin Williams wasn’t as dominant as usual in his most recent start, and the situation in the MLB rotation is about to get much more crowded. Aaron Civale just made his first rehab start for the Clippers on Thursday and looked incredible, and Triston McKenzie will make his first rehab start today for the Clippers as well.
With that being said, Williams still has the arsenal with the most upside out of maybe anyone in the rotation. Walks continue to be his biggest issue, but I don’t think that will prevent him from making his debut in the first half. It likely depends more on the opportunities available in the Guardians’ rotation. On a per-inning basis, he’s the most exciting pitcher in AAA for redraft leagues.
2. Andrew Abbott, CIN – ETA June (3)
Andrew Abbott had a really nice bounce back start on Friday where his SwStr% and CSW% were back to the really good levels we saw in his three starts prior to last Saturday’s clunker.
Brandon Williamson and Ben Lively are currently occupying the two musical chairs in the Reds rotation, and unfortunately for Abbott they’ve boon been solid there. Although it’s nothing sort of a miracle that Williamson, who has been one of the worst starters in the upper levels of the Minors since he was acquired form Seattle, was able to make his MLB debut in Denver, Colorado and dominate.
Abbott likely was left out in this round of promotions because he has the least amount of experience in AAA and he was promoted pretty quickly from AA. He just needs some more seasoning, and I’m confident he debuts in the first half of this season. With their high-end hitter prospects getting promoted soon as well, the Reds are about to become a lot more exciting to watch.
3. Bobby Miller, LAD – ETA June (5)
Bobby Miller found some rhythm on Wednesday night. After three bumpy starts where he failed to settle in and execute his pitches, he put together a really solid performance where he threw 6 innings, allowed 1 run, struck out 6, and walked 1.
Dustin May is on the shelf after suffering a flexor pronator strain, but he will still be sidelined for at least a month. This opens a spot in the rotation and it will likely go to either Miller or Gavin Stone. Stone has already pitched in the Majors this season and hasn’t missed any time with injury, so he’s more likely to get the first crack at it. However, Stone struggled mightily in his debut and his changeup (which is his signature offering) was largely ineffective. My (theoretical) money is on Miller to take that spot for at least a few starts before May returns.
4. Ben Brown, CHC – June (4)
Ben Brown had his first bad start of the season on Tuesday, which cratered his super impressive stat line. He only drew 7 whiffs on 84 pitches, which is significantly lower than the mark in his first two AAA starts, and he gave up a ton of hard contact. His velocity was down by about 0.5 mph, but I think the bigger issue was his lack of command.
In his first two AAA starts, the pitch location charts will tell you that he mostly kept his fastballs elevated and his sliders buried, which is usually a really good game plan for those two pitches. And it did work really well. But in his most recent start, he wasn’t able to bury the slider as often and get chases out of the bottom of the zone. He threw the pitch much higher than usual, and he likely suffered as a result. His fastball wasn’t elevated as much as usual either, and the two pitches came together to mush in the middle of the zone, likely killing the effective tunneling of his arsenal and leading to the high exit velocities.
One start isn’t enough to lose faith in his abilities, and he’s still one of the best backup options that the Cubs have for their rotation. Look for him to correct these issues in his next probable start on Sunday.
5. DL Hall, BAL – ETA May (6)
DL Hall was pulled from his start on Tuesday after only throwing 45 pitches, but it wasn’t due to anything alarming. According to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, it was a precautionary move for the sake of load management.
DL Hall was removed after 3 innings tonight and 45 pitches at AAA Norfolk. But he's on a weekly schedule for a de-load, as they call it, and deliberate training period over the next several weeks. No issues with his health. #orioles
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) May 17, 2023
He looked really good in those 3 innings, and it’s still the case that the only thing keeping him from appearing in the top 2-3 on this list is the reliever risk he carries.
6. Quinn Priester, PIT – ETA June (7)
Quinn Priester looked very much unlike himself in his most recent start, in the best way possible. I’ve mentioned before that his results have been pretty pedestrian and his best asset is his proximity to the Big Leagues. And then he went out and struck out 9 batters, walked only 1, and allowed 1 run over 7 innings of work. It was likely the best start of his career.
I assumed that this was an outlier start until I looked at how he did it. Priester has relied heavily on his fastball and sinker this season. In each of his previous starts, he threw those two pitches combined at least 50% of the time, and sometimes up to 70% of the time. The problem is that they don’t generate very many whiffs, if any at all. He’d been trying to induce soft contact with the sinker and keep hitters off balance with the fastball/breaking ball combo. And that led to fine results, but it limited his upside because he lacks the elite velocity or “stuff” to blow guys away.
He does have one elite pitch in his arsenal: the curveball. And up until Tuesday, he hardly featured it. But then he went and threw it 30% of the time – the most of all his pitches- and his whole arsenal benefitted from the change. He generated 20 whiffs on 88 pitches, which is by far the best mark of his season. He also had a 32% CSW%, 50% oSwing%, and 75% zContact% – all significantly better than they have been in recent starts. His curve and slider combined for 50% usage, which is a complete 180 from his previous pitch mix that featured a majority of fastballs.
It’s only one start, but if this new mix proves to be replicable without sacrificing too much command, Priester’s ceiling moves from a 4th or 5th starter on the fringe to a 3rd or 4th starter who could be more reliable for bulk innings. Nothing crazy, but definitely an improvement.
7. Bryan Woo, SEA – ETA July (8)
Bryan Woo continues to shove. He set a season-high mark in strikeouts with 10 on Wednesday and posted a great 15.4% SwStr% to boot. The arrow is pointing directly skyward.
Woo has an extremely smooth and repeatable delivery with a low arm angle that helps him create a significant amount of carry on his fastball. It sits at 94-95 and avoids the middle of the zone with solid command. He also features a slider and changeup, but he’s primarily a fastball/slider pitcher. The slider is shaped very similarly to the gyro slider that Bryce Miller also throws- it breaks tightly with very little horizontal movement. I think they might be onto something in Arkansas.
8. Patrick Monteverde, MIA – ETA July (NR)
I included Patrick Monteverde on this list over Shane Drohan and Will Warren, even though those two were called up to AAA after posting great numbers in AA. Monteverde has yet to be called up to the highest level of the Minors, but I have to think he’s extremely close. Monteverde is the oldest player on this list and he’s thrown just over 70 innings at AA if you include last season. After the big leaps he’s taken forward this season, I think he’s one of the very next guys to get promoted. And once he’s in AAA we start to take him much more seriously.
His arsenal lacks tremendous upside, but he has good command of multiple pitches and can change speeds and locate them well. His fastball sits in the low 90s and he has three variations of it- the 4-seam, 2-seam, and cutter. The cutter is a variation of his slider and he can use those two pitches in tandem to keep hitters off balance. He also features a changeup, which could be his best whiff pitch.
9. Cade Povich, BAL – ETA July (10)
Cade Povich took a step backward in his most recent start where his command faltered a bit and he walked 3 batters. While progress is not linear or exponential, it’s worth monitoring going forward. He still carries a fantastic K-BB% and xFIP even after this rough outing.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s from the left side and he also features a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. His delivery is a bit deceptive as he hides the ball well, and his arm slot is maybe a bit higher than the 3/4 range. This allows him to drop the hammer with a huge curveball, but likely limits the sweep on his slider. He’s confident with both breaking pitches and can fill up the zone with them if he needs to.
10. A.J. Smith-Shawver, ATL – ETA August (NR)
A.J. Smith-Shawver was promoted to make his AAA debut on Friday night after he didn’t allow a run through 5 starts in A+ and AA. He is now the youngest pitcher to appear in AAA this season, and the next youngest is about 2 years older than him. He held his own in his debut and wasn’t overmatched at all. His 4-seamer averaged 95.4 mph and he threw it 60% of the time. He also featured a cutter and slider for his go-to secondary pitches (both of which averaged 84-86 mph) and tossed a curveball twice.
He generated 9 whiffs in 84 pitches, which is a solid number but nothing eye-catching. He was able to get a good amount of chases out of the zone, especially on his cutter, but somehow batters were able to make contact on 95% of the pitches he threw in the zone. That’s not hyperbole, either. It didn’t have a catastrophic effect for him and I’m not about to panic about it because it can’t be sustainable moving forward. He also just showed many more promising signs than concerning ones in his AAA debut at 20-years-old.
The Watchlist
This section of The Stash List is aimed towards those of you who play in deep leagues (15+ teams or 375+ players rostered) where some of the guys on the list above might already be taken because of their higher pedigree. These players’ debuts will likely be a bit further out than the players listed above, but the purpose is to be ready to pounce on them as soon as it becomes clear that an opportunity might open up.
The players are listed in alphabetical order, and I don’t have the time to do write-ups for these guys, so I’d highly suggest checking out their Fangraphs pages and/or watching one of their starts. Also, shout out to @SpokaneWaUpdate on Twitter for inspiring this section of the article!
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)