The Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – The List 3/17 UPDATE

What is happening!

I put out my initial Top 200 Starting Pitcher rankings back in the middle of February and now that we’re a month removed, there are adjustments to be made.

The foundations of these rankings are the same as they were back then – Volume, early schedule, realizing you’re not drafting a best ball team, etc. – and please read that section of the Top 200 rankings again to grasp how to take advantage of this updated Top 100 to its fullest.

With this update, I will next be completing my Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide For 2021 that will be releasing on the site on Monday. It will go over:

• A massive section devoted to my drafting philosophies
• Breaking down each position highlight which players I’m targeting based on ADP
• Round by round outline of each position and how I am navigating my 12-teamer snake drafts with a lovely spreadsheet included

This isn’t the final update to the SP ranks before the season starts – Monday, March 29th will kick-off the weekly Monday updates of The List, which will carry on through October 4th.

And always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• During the next update of The List, I will be handling injured players like I do in-season with a “Fringe Starters” table that outlines who just missed the Top 100 + removing all IL players and noting where I expect them to re-appear once we believe they’ll return to the rotation during the upcoming week.
• For now, I’ve elected not to shift the three injured arms – Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Carrasco, and Sonny Gray. All three should miss two starts at most – if anything! – and shouldn’t affect your draft strategies much if at all.

 

• You won’t see much movement inside the Top 15 or so in April, though we did get news that the Diamondbacks will be limiting Zac Gallen to some degree. I’m not thrilled about it, but it forces me to put him below Luis Castillo and Jack Flaherty since they have higher inning ceilings now.
• I also made a mini-tier for Blake Snell, Lance Lynn, and Tyler Glasnow. I find myself drafting them separately from the others so here you go, have a tier.

 

• I elected to take the old/injured group and push them down the ranks a decent amount – Charlie Morton, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Greinke. I think I’m still generally more favorable than the consensus on all of them, but I found myself leaning toward the innings of Zack Wheeler and Max Fried more inside drafts.
• I also wanted to give a little more love to Zach Plesac and Corbin Burnes. It’s awfully tempting to push them both to Top 20 – their skill sets suggest it! – but we have to be cautious given a likely smaller volume + a shorter track record of success. I definitely feel that Burnes and Plesac love, though. I really do.

 

• I find myself “in” on Chris Paddack figuring out his fastball woes from last season, especially after he reportedly began embracing advanced metrics to help him correct its axis. Sorry Jose Berrios, you just aren’t as exciting to me.
• I also pushed up Sixto Sanchez after talking to Derek VanRiper and Eno Sarris during our “Super Pod” on Monday. Sixto is a special talent and his ceiling deserved more love.

 

• I’m sticking to my guns here, I truly believe that Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon are destined to succeed in 2021. Kluber is already back to his 2019 & 2020 velocity and earning plenty of whiffs with his elite breakers. Taillon is in the perfect scenario in New York, is 100% healthy for the first time in a long time, has already displayed a vastly improved four-seamer, and was a Top 25 starter in 2018, his last healthy season. You want this.
• I’m also pushing up Pablo Lopez and Aaron Civale who each have the ability to consistently go six frames, while featuring a solid floor in both 2019 and 2020. I see a 2021 for both that builds upon their strengths and adds new elements, such as a new breaker from Pablo and an improved fastball from Civale.

 

• To boost up those above, we have to drop some major names. Ian Anderson and Frankie Montas each fall as I question if they can reach their ceilings this season. I think Anderson has amazing 2022+ potential, but he simply doesn’t have enough experience to dictate a lower walk rate and smooth sailing in the first half of 2021. Meanwhile, Montas showed us last year the inconsistency we fear from a splitter and there may be more undulation this season than we’d like.
• I also had to do John Means a touch as well. It’s not for a lack of love, it’s more that I worry about his opening month of the season, facing the Red Sox and Yankees out of the gate. He also has been a touch inconsistent with his velocity (sometimes ~92, others ~94) and it may take a moment longer to turn into the polished arm. Still, I’m higher than the consensus on Means for good reason and recommend him well earlier than his 200+ ADP.

 

• I’m in on Shohei Ohtani, the pitcher. Look, take the chance on his Top 20 upside and forget about the inning totals. It’s a 12-teamer, he shouldn’t be your #4 starter. Your #5? Absolutely as the worst-case scenario where he’s either terrible early or pitches under 75 innings is easy to stomach. The reward of a 30% strikeout rate with excellent ratios is worth your investment past the #50th SP off the board.
• Jose Urquidy is another to consider right at the same moment. The Astros aren’t going to dramatically limit him (I’d wager something around 150 innings?) and his four-pitch mix is plenty better than his COVID-laden 2020 season suggests. Urquidy will help your staff.

 

• In Tier 9, I elected to give a major bump to Domingo German. He’s looked like his 2019 self in spring training, with a firm hold on the #5 in the Yankee rotation. This could be another year where German is a steal in your final rounds and he should be heavily considered out of the gate.
• I gave a drop to David Price as it’s become clear that he’s suffering heavily from #Dodgeritis. I’m not sure if he’ll start and how long he’ll be starting when he does, forcing me to push him close to #60. I’d still take the shot and hope he lands a clear starting gig early, but you’re better off looking elsewhere first.

 

• We still have the injured tier for Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, and Luis Severino. Syndergaard got a boost since he should be back sooner, but Sale is the ultimate prize here.
• You should be drafting at least one of these in your drafts if you have at least two IL spots – there’s no reason not to and you’ll likely be able to snag someone else from The List to take their place. Give yourself the choice to drop them if you need to in-season.

 

• Tier 11 starts with Tobys. Keuchel should be a solid play if you need ratios, as well as Marco Gonzales. Yes, I trust Keuchel slightly more as 1) He’s not in a six-man rotation 2) He should get more Wins with the White Sox behind him, and 3) He’s done the whole “solid ratios” thing for longer.
• Mike Minor gets a massive boost as his velocity has been 92-94 this spring after sitting sub 91 mph all of last year. Given that he faces his former Rangers for his first start, you’re wise to draft Minor, start him, and make a decision after that. Don’t forget, he had 200 strikeouts in 2019.

 

• Carlos Martinez has been vastly ignored and I’m here to put an end to it. He’s up to 94+ mph in spring training, has two elite secondaries in his changeup and slider, has a secure rotation spot, and has a solid schedule vs. the Reds, Brewers, Phillies, and Nationals in April. Do you want strikeouts and decent ratios after pick 200? CarMart is the one you want.
• I’m still wondering how to feel about Jake Odorizzi as he’s in a wonderful situation now in Houston. We still haven’t seen much of him, though, and he may not be able to replicate his 2019 breakout. Monitor this closely as a spring replicating 2019 would shoot him up to the 50s of my ranks.

 

• Don’t forget about A.J. Puk who may start the year inside the Athletics’ rotation. He comes with legit heat and a wicked slider and if he’s dominant, there may be a case he stays there, even when Mike Fiers is healthy again.
• Man, do I hope that Tony Gonsolin gets legit starts out of camp. He’s killing it, but has only pitched six frames in six outings, making it look like he won’t get early chances at 5-6 inning outings. Ugh, it’s not fair. He’s a legit Top 30 SP contender if he were locked in, say, Cleveland’s rotation.

 

• Do I trust that Nathan Eovaldi is going to be amazing through the year? Not really, but he gets the Orioles on opening day and I’d be very happy drafting him late just for that one outing. And hey, maybe he kills it and justifies the Rays next.
• On the other side, there’s Madison Bumgarner who is throwing 90-91 mph instead of the ~88mph he held last season…but gets the Padres and Coors to start the year. Feel free to draft Bumgarner if you’re okay holding him for those two games – who knows, he may surprise us all in those starts!

 

• Am I back on the Matthew Boyd train? Not really? Tier 13 is a tier of mystery and suspense and who better than Boyd, who unlocked his changeup last year, but at the expense of fastball command and his golden slider disappearing. If he can get both back, it may be the prize we foresaw this time last year.
• Yeah, I’ve pushed Sean Manaea up a little bit. While I don’t necessarily love him, I can see people turning to him as the #80th starter for a bit of ratio help and a tinge of strikeout upside. Let’s hope he can sit 91 mph and get whiffs with his slider and changeup.

 

• Sorry, I’m not looking to draft Cristian Javier or Dustin May. With Javier, he has a stamina problem inside starts, without a good enough repertoire to justify taking the chance. Dustin has the same problem as Gonsolin, but a worse repertoire and I believe is one step lower on the Dodgers’ depth chart. It’s just not worth the pick right now.
• I am recognizing that this could be the year of Yusei Kikuchi, though. I’m hesitant to draft him given a shaky early schedule that could hurt y’all early, but if Kikuchi can nail down that fastball command while maintaining its 96 mph velocity, there could be some legit fantasy upside here.

 

• In the final tier, we have two significant drops. Caleb Smith is still someone I have my eye on early as the velocity returned last year but the command wasn’t quite there. He’s this far down as I imagine he can stay on your wire for his first outing against the Padres, but he may be worth the add for Cincinnati after.
• There’s also Garrett Richards who simply hasn’t looked sharp in the spring. Richards struggles to avoid deep counts and seeing him fail to get ahead consistently in the spring makes me believe it’ll be more disappointment in 2021 – at least at first. I’d rather roll the dice elsewhere to kick off the season.

 

• We have a fun crew joining The List this week, starting with two Marlins in Elieser Hernandez and Trevor Rogers. Elieser has a wonderful slider that should miss bats, possibly pushing him into consistent 5-6 inning outings and flirting a 25% strikeout rate. Rogers has a solid fastball/changeup combination and a developing breaker in the five-hole for Miami. Don’t overlook him as a decent streamer early.
• Rounding out the new additions are Josh Lindblom, Tejay Antone, and Rich Hill. Lindblom could gather plenty of innings for the Brewers and may have made adjustments this season to push down the ratios while hovering a 25% strikeout rate. Antone may have the fifth spot in Cincinnati now that Wade Miley is injured, though I question if he’s consistent enough to warrant your draft pick. Finally, there’s Hill who…well, it’s Rich Hill. Let’s hope he still has a bit left in the tank.

 

• Six pitchers had to leave The List to make room for these new additions. Michael Kopech is out of the rotation to start the season and you know me, I don’t like early bench stashes. The same goes for Tanner Houck as it looks like Nick Pivetta has earned his keep (too risky!). Nate Pearson may be out of a job as well after re-aggravating his groin injury and given his injury history + two-pitch mix, a bullpen role may be in his near future.
• Three others just missed a spot. I’ll have my eye on Dean Kremer through the year, but I don’t think a draft pick investment is necessary, especially when he faces Boston in his first two passes. I wonder if Anthony DeSclafani can return to form in San Francisco, but I’d rather wait and see there. Lastly, Adrian Houser has the chance to get his fastball back in order, though there’s no rush to stash him now.

 

• At the very end, I considered plenty of names. I haven’t been able to find a velocity reading on Chris Archer, making him still a questionable first week play if he gets that start against Miami. Luke Weaver could be a fixed man with a new slider, but I’m still waiting past that first week. Robbie Ray threw plenty of strikes in his first spring outing yet you all know how risky that proposition is.
• I also wanted to stick Spencer Howard at the end, but his role isn’t clear with the Phillies quite yet – and was sidelined with back spasms – so he’s just outside the Top 100 at the moment.
• Then there’s Tarik Skubal, who many have labeled as their sleeper SP for the season. His omission isn’t for lack of appeal – I really like his stuff long term! – it’s for a lack of early faith. I feel a draft pick of Skubal as a bench stash where I wouldn’t trust him to perform at a high level early in the season. I personally don’t go for bench stashes as draft picks – those roster spots should be used on early, successful players in hopes they stick! – pushing Skubal off the List. For now.

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Yu Darvish T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
9	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
10	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
11	Kenta Maeda T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
13	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
14	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-2
15	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
16	Blake Snell T4	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-
17	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
18	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-
19	Carlos Carrasco T5	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
20	Stephen Strasburg	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
21	Sonny Gray	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
22	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
23	Hyun Jin Ryu	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
24	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
25	Kyle Hendricks	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
26	Zach Plesac	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
27	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+3
28	Dinelson Lamet T6	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+3
29	Charlie Morton	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-6
30	Patrick Corbin	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
31	Zack Greinke	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-4
32	Chris Paddack	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
33	José Berríos T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
34	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
35	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+3
36	Sixto Sánchez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
37	Jesús Luzardo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-
38	Corey Kluber	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
39	Jameson Taillon	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
40	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+3
41	Aaron Civale	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
42	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-7
43	Frankie Montas T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-7
44	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
45	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
46	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
47	John Means	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-5
48	Michael Soroka	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Stash Option	-1
49	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
50	Kevin Gausman	Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+2
51	José Urquidy T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+6
52	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+6
53	Marcus Stroman	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-5
54	James Paxton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
55	Jordan Montgomery	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-2
56	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-2
57	Domingo Germán	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+13
58	David Price	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-8
59	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
60	Chris Sale T10	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-
61	Noah Syndergaard	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	+1
62	Luis Severino	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-1
63	Dallas Keuchel T11	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-8
64	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby	+11
65	Mike Minor	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+23
66	Zach Davies	Quality Starts Toby	-1
67	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby	+1
68	Carlos Martínez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+25
69	Michael Lorenzen	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+2
70		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-7
71	Mitch Keller T12	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-7
72	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	-3
73	Eduardo Rodriguez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
74	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-1
75	A.J. Puk	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+10
76	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+21
77	Madison Bumgarner	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
78	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
79	Tony Gonsolin	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-13
80	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-2
81	Sean Manaea T13	Injury Risk Ratio Focused	+9
82	Matthew Boyd	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
83	Spencer Turnbull	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
84	Elieser Hernández	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+UR
85	Alec Mills	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+1
86	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-6
87	Ryan Yarbrough	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-5
88	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby	+8
89	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-12
90	Dustin May	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-23
91	Michael Pineda	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
92	J.A. Happ	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-5
93	Caleb Smith T14	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-10
94	Trevor Rogers	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
95	Dylan Cease	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-3
96	Josh Lindblom	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
97	Garrett Richards	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-23
98	Griffin Canning	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-4
99	Tejay Antone	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
100	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)