Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- Tarik Skubal has entered “unquestioned best pitcher in baseball” territory. He’s the No. 1 option in the Pitcher List Rankings, and he’s taken his already elite game to another level of late. He’s pitched to a 0.74 ERA over his past five starts, and he’s added four wins and 38 total strikeouts in those outings. It doesn’t matter if we invent a time machine and he has to face the 1927 Yankees, you’re not taking him out of your lineup.
- Chris Sale got off to a rocky start this season, but he has been as good as ever over the past two months. He owns a minuscule 1.23 ERA over his past 10 starts, and he’s added 82 strikeouts in those 66 innings. He’s another clear Tier One starter for fantasy purposes, making him a must-start in all matchups.
- Bryan Woo is the shakiest of the “Set-and-Forget” starters. He’s not nearly the same strikeout artist as the other two, and he doesn’t benefit from pitching at home in either of his upcoming projected starts. That said, he’s still a very good pitcher, and the matchups against the Twins and Rangers are strong. He’s also coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, surrendering just one hit over seven scoreless innings. That puts him in must-start territory.
Most Likely
- This tier features a handful of really strong pitchers, including Kris Bubic, Framber Valdez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. All three are listed as Tier Three arms in the Pitcher List Rankings, so they can certainly be started in any matchup. However, all three have at least one brutal matchup: Bubic will have to face the Dodgers, Valdez will square off with the Cubs, and Schwellenbach will face the Mets. It’s reasonable to at least consider benching those guys in those matchups, but they’re too talented to ultimately come out of your lineup.
- Luis Castillo was once considered a top-tier fantasy starter, but he’s not quite the same pitcher at this point. That said, he’s still very good. He owns a 3.39 ERA this season, though his advanced metrics aren’t quite as promising. He’s also been significantly better at home than on the road, which is not surprising for someone who pitches in the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball. The best thing Castillo has going for him is his length: he’s gone at least six innings in six of his past seven outings. That type of volume is tough to take out of your lineup, even if the circumstances aren’t ideal.
- Ranger Suárez is an absolute baller. He missed the early part of this season due to injury, but he’s been nails since returning. He owns a 2.20 ERA and 2.57 xERA, and he has some of the best batted-ball data in baseball. The matchup vs. the Braves is a bit scary, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt.
- Jameson Taillon finally experienced some adversity in his last outing, surrendering five earned runs against the Brewers. That doesn’t erase all the good work he did previously. He allowed three earned runs or fewer in 12 of his previous 13 starts, and he’s allowed just one earned run in five of them. Neither of his expected matchups is particularly tough, so there’s no reason to shy away from him now.
- Justin Verlander is now 42 years old, and he’s clearly not the same pitcher that he was in his prime. In fact, he might not be very good at this point. Still, it’s tough to beat his upcoming schedule, which features matchups against the Marlins and White Sox. Verlander’s stuff is still good enough to get outs — he’s 22nd in Stuff+ among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched — so he’s a very reasonable dice roll in two plus matchups. It’s enough to earn him the Streamer of the Week designation, and if he can’t succeed here, it’s pretty safe to ignore him moving forward.
Questionable
- Trevor Rogers has been a mediocre pitcher for most of his career, with his breakout campaign with the Marlins in 2021 looking like a clear outlier. However, he’s pitched well in his two starts for the Orioles this season, posting a 2.77 xERA and 2.37 FIP. That’s most likely just a small sample size anomaly, but it at least gives him some streaming appeal. He’s a particularly appealing option vs. the Rangers, who rank 24th in wRC+ with the fifth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws.
- Ryan Yarbrough was shelled by the Red Sox three starts ago, but he’s bounced back with two strong showings since. He’s an unconventional starter in 2025—his average fastball velocity puts him in the first percentile—but he’s generally been pretty effective. He owns a 3.63 xERA with elite batted-ball data, so he’s a viable streaming option at home vs. the Athletics.
- Max Scherzer was outstanding in his final tune-up start in the minor leagues, recording eight strikeouts over 4.1 scoreless innings. He’s slated to make his return to the majors next week, and it could come in the Blue Jays’ first contest. If that happens, it will set him up for multiple starts. Scherzer is almost certainly not the same ace-caliber arm he was in his prime, but he can be considered in strong matchups vs. the Guardians and Red Sox.
- Shane Smith continues to deliver quiet value for the White Sox and fantasy owners. His ERA sits at 2.85 for the year, and he’s added just under a strikeout per inning. He hasn’t had a true blowup start all season, but he still carries some risk vs. the Diamondbacks. Pitching for the White Sox also gives him minimal win upside, which hurts his fantasy prospects.
- Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack are both tentatively slated for multiple starts for the Twins, and both pitchers look pretty similar on paper. Both guys have tough matchups at home vs. the resurgent Mariners’ offense, but both have some upside vs. the Tigers.
- Nick Lodolo is a “boom or bust” type of pitcher, and he has plenty of bust potential vs. the Yankees. However, the matchup vs. the Padres is much friendlier: they’re merely 20th in wRC+ vs. left-handers.
- It doesn’t get much better than Chad Patrick’s upcoming schedule. The only issue is that he’s not a very good pitcher. Still, anyone is a viable streaming target at home vs. the Rockies, and he can potentially be used vs. the Pirates as well. They’re not a whole lot better than Colorado, ranking just 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
- Matthew Liberatore has come crashing back to reality of late, surrendering at least four runs in three of his past four outings. The good news is that the lone exception was in his last start. The bad news is that it came against the White Sox. Not dominating against Chicago would’ve been a major red flag, so it’s hard to get too excited about his prospects. There’s no reason to start him vs. the Cubs, but he has some upside vs. the Guardians: they rank 23rd in wRC+ vs. left-handers, and they have the ninth-highest strikeout rate in that split.
- Eduardo Rodriguez is another pitcher with an elite upcoming schedule. His numbers for the year are dreadful, but he has looked better since returning from the IL. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight outings, so he can be targeted in two elite matchups.
- Stephen Kolek has basically held his own at the MLB level. It hasn’t always been pretty, but he’s proven that he can provide value in the right matchups. Pitching in Cincinnati probably doesn’t qualify, but a home matchup with the Nationals does.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
