Two-Start Starters: Week 5

Welcome to the third edition of the 2026 two-start pitcher rankings!

Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters into four tiers: Set and Forget, Most Likely Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and shift your focus to other positions. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, the Avoid tier includes the pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.

I will also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The streamer of the week for this upcoming week is Jack Kochanowicz, and he will have (STOW) next to his name. He was supposed to have two starts in week 4, but changes to the rotation pushed his start this week to Tuesday, lining him up for Monday, 4/27, and a second start over the weekend.

As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections, and are subject to change

• What a steal Randy Vasquez has been this season.  He has a career low .297 xwOBA, the best K% of his career (26.3%), and the CSW% is up on all of his pitches except his slider, which is roughly the same as last season.  Keep him in the lineup.
• Jesús Luzardo has not gotten the results you’d like, but the stuff has been so good. He’s due for positive regression, and having two favorable matchups in the Giants and Marlins is as good a time as there will be for that to start.
• Braxton Ashcraft has been great to start the season, and has two great matchups against the Cardinals and Reds at PNC.  Keep him in your lineup until he gives you a reason to replace him.
• Chase Burns has been doing ace things; expect him to pile up the strikeouts this week against the Rockies (5th highest K%) and Pirates (10th highest K%)
• Joe Ryan had some issues against Carson Benge and the Mets on Thursday.  It happens, he still went 5 innings and struck out 5.
• Max Fried dominated from the 3rd inning on against the Red Sox after abandoning his windup.  Expect him to take it to another level after that change.

• Jack Kochanowicz (STOW) was solid against the Yankees, and even though the strikeouts weren’t there against the Blue Jays, he still induced plenty of ground balls and, most importantly, limited walks.  The match-ups are even better for the Sinker baller this week, and if his change-up gets whiffs, the strikeout numbers will increase.
• Matthew Boyd returned from the IL and was fine against the Phillies (4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 12 Whiffs, 84 pitches) and should only get better in each start as he builds back up.
• Tyler Mahle, you have my attention after pitching well against the Dodgers and showing increased velocity.  The Phillies offense still hasn’t captured its stride, and at the Rays is a must-start in daily leagues.
• Pitching in Sacramento is always a little jarring, especially as it gets warmer, but Parker Messick has picked up right where he left off last season, and the velocity is up a tick.  The changeup has a 55.3% chase rate, and he’s piling up strikes with his sinker (74.5% Str% off a 62.7% zone%).  The curveball and slider are also solid enough that I’m comfortable trusting him.
• Clay Holmes doesn’t have the strikeout upside, but he’s able to efficiently go deep in games as he relies on his sinker to induce soft contact.  He can keep the ball in the park against the Nationals, and the sinker inside to the Angels righties is a recipe for success.
• The upside of Bubba Chandler is tantalizing.  A 57.5% usage on the four-seamer but a 38.9% zone% isn’t ideal, but he faces two weak offensive teams in PNC Park this week.  Please, Bubba, trust your stuff and attack hitters.

• Chad Patrick struggled against the Tigers, only pitching 4 innings, allowing 4 earned and generating 5 whiffs with a 19% CSW.  His ERA is over 2 runs better than his expected stats (2.35 ERA vs 4.56 xERA, 4.36 FIP, 5.23 xFIP).  In a pinch, there are worse options.
• Reynaldo López struggled against the Nationals and their lefties, and now has to face the Tigers’ lefty-driven offense before pitching in Colorado against a Rockies team that isn’t a pushover anymore.
• Dustin May started the season with two disastrous starts before looking good in his last three.  His line over the past 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3 ER, 16 H, 2 BB, 13 K. Having a solid defense behind him helps, but the lack of whiffs and strikeouts limits his ceiling.  Against a surprisingly good Pirates offense, he’s worth consideration, but I wouldn’t trust him vs the Dodgers.
• Merrill Kelly has struggled in his two starts. A 25.7% Barrel% and 14% walk rate (career 7.3% BB%) should come down more in line with his career norms, but until that happens, I’m looking for other options.  He has more upside than the players in the avoid tier.
• Luis Castillo faces a Twins offense that is 9th in wRC+ before finishing the week against a Royals offense that’s struggled (25th in wRC+).  The four-seamer’s been good (15.7% SwStr%), but the Slider isn’t getting chased enough for me to be comfortable starting him.  Additionally, he hasn’t looked like the pitcher that dominated the Yankees in his first start of the season, and has a WHIP north of 2 since.
• The Orioles gave up a lot for Shane Baz, and he’s been tough to figure out.  He’s allowing too many baserunners (career worst 1.55 WHIP) and not striking hitters out at the rate we’ve grown accustomed to (19.6% K% in 2026, 22.5% for his career).  Facing the Astros and Yankees makes it all the more difficult to have confidence in Baz.
• Jack Leiter has allowed a .416 wOBA against lefties this season and has to face Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, (a struggling) Jazz Chisholm Jr., Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Colt Keith, and Kerry Carpenter.  Again, there are worse streaming options, but I don’t like the matchups for Leiter this week, even though I believe he will be a good pitcher and is consistently worth consideration.
• Steven Matz struggled with control against the Reds at the Trop (4 walks).  He’s not someone I’m going to rush to add since he’s only topped 80 pitches twice in five starts, but having reliever flexibility and facing the Guardians and Giants makes him an intriguing option.
• Ranger Suarez has the lowest GB% and CSW% of his career, and his K% is down to 17%. He’s had two solid starts (against the Cardinals and Tigers), but also two not great starts, one of which was against the Astros in opening weekend, who he will face this week.
• Kris Bubic, for his career, has reverse splits (lefties have performed better against him, albeit in a significantly smaller sample size), but he’s been more neutral in recent years.  This is important since the A’s offense features plenty of lefties with power.  He was fine against the Orioles in his last outing despite not having his best command.  I like him against the Mariners more than in Sacramento.
• Casey Mize against the Rangers intrigues me. Mize against the Braves scares me.  He’s benefited from facing the Marlins, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks (18.1 IP, 13 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 21 K), but struggled against the Twins, whose offense has been top 10 but isn’t as good as the Braves.
• Connor Prielipp will be making his second and third career starts next week.  He was solid in his first start, pitching 4 innings with 6 Ks, 0 BBs, 2 ER.  He generated 10 whiffs but finished with only a 22% CSW.  I’m looking to stash more than start right now.

Some thoughts on notable pitchers in this tier:

• Jacob Lopez has a negative K-BB% and has two games at home in the Sacramento launching pad.
• Ryan Weiss has struggled and has a 15.4% BB%, 12.3 H/9, 2.04 WHIP, and .413 xwOBA
• One of Patrick Corbin or Eric Lauer will be replaced in the rotation by Trey Yesavage.  The other doesn’t provide the floor or upside to be worth streaming in either game this week.
• Kyle Leahy is 185th in CSW% and 157th in WHIP among starters.  Additionally, there’s a chance the Cardinals go to a six-man rotation with Hunter Dobbins pitching on Wednesday, which would push Leahy’s second start to Monday, May 4th.
• Tomoyuki Sugano has been surprisingly solid results-wise, posting a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in just over 5 innings a start.  However, the lack of swing and miss concerns me too much to trust against the Reds at home or in Coors.

Graphic Made By Doug Carlin (@bdougals)