Arguably more than any other fantasy scoring category, success from a run-scored standpoint can have (relatively) little to do with the hitter. Sure, getting on base helps. To a degree, so does making consistent quality contact. Stolen bases on a regular basis? Yeah, that doesn’t hurt either.
But oftentimes, despite all that, a player’s run-scored tally can fluctuate based on the proficiency and effectiveness of the lineup around them.
With that in mind, finding quality sources of runs later in drafts can be slightly tricky, especially the further you get down draft boards where more and more position players are more fantasy specialists, for lack of a better term, with the ability to provide above-average production in only a category or two.
Still, there are number of players currently being selected in the latter portions of drafts who could provide anywhere from quality to decidedly above-average run-scoring production.
These are a few of those players.
*All ADP data via NFBC.
Jack Suwinski – 238.07 ADP*
On the one hand, Jack Suwinski logged a fairly low batting average last year. He hit just .224 with a .218 xBA. A 32.2% strikeout rate and a 30.1% whiff rate had a lot to do with that.
But, on the other hand, the 25-year-old logged a 14.0% walk rate, which finished in the 94th percentile league-wide, which helped elevate his on-base percentage to a .339 number despite the low average. The on-base percentage also helps from a fantasy standpoint, particularly in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring, but also in terms of Suwinski’s ability to potentially score more.
All told, the outfielder brings a pretty unique skillset to the table in terms of being able to get on base at a high rate, steal bases to put himself in scoring position, or to simply get into scoring position via an extra-base hit.
Among qualified batters last season, just five hitters logged at least a 13.0% walk rate, a minimum of 10 stolen bases, and an ISO north of the .200 mark. Suwinski was one of them.
The other four?
Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.
All four are either going in or near the first round of drafts.
Right now, Suwinski is being selected in the 19th round in 12-team formats,
Maybe the walk rate is too high for you, a bit unrealistic for most batters. Tweak the requirements to simply just a double-digit walk rate (with the double-digit steals and an ISO of .200 or higher), and the list only adds Kyle Tucker and Ronald Acuña Jr. to it.
A staple in the middle of the Pirates’ lineup last season, Suwinski (and his run-scoring potential) should only benefit from what should be an improved run-scoring unit in Pittsburgh next season with a full season from Oneil Cruz and continued improvements from Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, and KeBryan Hayes.
The Pirates outfielder’s ADP is probably going to be higher in on-base percentage leagues, but either way, he makes for a potentially league-winning pick later in drafts.
Jake Fraley – 329.88 ADP*
Fraley is a bit like Suwinski in the sense that he probably isn’t going to log an exorbitantly high batting average but will provide solid production in terms of walks, stolen bases, and power – all certainly potential positives where run-scoring opportunities are concerned.
The Reds outfielder hit .256 with a .339 on-base percentage in 380 plate appearances last season, adding 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases for the National League Central club.
However, one of the ways his fantasy upside differs from Suwinski’s is the fact that he gets to play half his games at Great American Ball Park, a stadium (per Statcast) with the third-best overall park factor and highest park factor for home runs in the last three seasons.
Unsurprisingly, Fraley took full advantage of playing so many
And while Fraley’s power production wasn’t nearly as plentiful on the road, he drew walks at a rather high clip away from home. And while that might seem like an anomaly of sorts, it’s actually something Fraley has done in each of the last two seasons with the Reds. As it happens, he’s also stolen more bases away from home in both campaigns, for what it’s worth, with 13 of his 21 steals last season coming on the road. All four of his 2022 stolen bases were away from Great American Ball Park as well.
The only real caveat here with Fraley is that the Reds really don’t utilize him against left-handed pitching that often. And while that’s certainly not ideal, the outfielder is going so late in drafts that selecting a player hitting as part of a platoon becomes decidedly more palatable.
The good news is, that when Fraley is playing, he generally hits in fairly fantasy-friendly spots in the lineup, particularly in the top half. That’ll only help where run-scoring opportunities are concerned in an emerging Reds lineup. Last year, Cincinnati scored the ninth-most runs in the league, but will now get full seasons from Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as well as offseason signing Jeimer Candelario.
Jarred Kelenic – 220.79 ADP*
The depth of Atlanta’s lineup can be both a blessing and a curse from a fantasy standpoint. On one hand, it provides plenty of run-scoring and RBI opportunities. On the other hand, because of the plethora of quality options, players hitting in the bottom half of the lineup get fewer plate appearances compared to if they were on a team with less established hitters.
And while the latter is certainly true for Kelenic, his run-scoring upside is too good to ignore this late in drafts.
Because Atlanta’s lineup is just too good itself.
The National League East club finished last year at the top of the league leaderboard in runs scored, 41 runs ahead of the next closest club. They also return more or less the same lineup from last year, only with Kelenic essentially replacing Eddie Rosario in the outfield. Rosario, who logged a 100 wRC+ last year, was one of nine different Atlanta players to register at least 64 runs scored.
Kelenic should have a similar run-scoring floor simply by hitting regularly in the lineup in his place.
Of course, the former Mariners outfielder’s ability to produce at the plate is part of this equation too, and one that offers a rather high fantasy ceiling from a run-scoring perspective. He flashed considerable upside last year, collecting a 169 wRC+ in March and April. And while Kelenic didn’t maintain that level of production, the outfielder still finished the year with a 108 wRC+, a 9.9% barrel rate, 11 home runs, and a career-high 13 stolen bases in 416 plate appearances.
Perhaps the most noteworthy part of Kelenic’s numbers last season is his home and road splits.
Without having to play half his games in T-Mobile Park anymore, Kelenic could quickly develop into a key member of Atlanta’s lineup – regardless of lineup spot – if he produces more in line with his 2023 road splits.
Of course, moving to a more hitter-friendly park should help too.
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