Each and every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, reviewing the biggest risers and fallers of the past seven days.
As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article … but where’s the fun in that?
I’m going to do this column a little differently this week.
Given we didn’t have many drastic changes in our Pitcher List Power Rankings from Week 14 to Week 15, I thought it’d be an apt time to check in on the Wild Card races.
Which teams are we “high” on in the race? Which teams are we “low” on? Which of those teams should buy at the deadline? And which of those teams should sell?
AL Wild Card Race
The Red Sox could shine with a few deadline acquisitions.
Dan Szymbrorski recently wrote an article for FanGraphs on Boston’s playoff chances. He found that if you hypothetically added two wins to every team in baseball, the Red Sox gained the most in terms of playoff probability odds.
We like the Sox, consistently ranking them near the top 10 in our power rankings. They’ve been red hot, winning 14 of their past 20 games. Jarren Duran has evolved into an All-Star center fielder, and Rafael Devers continues to ascend to previously unforeseen heights. Even Connor Wong is hitting well.
The only question is how committed ownership is to improving the team. Do they want to spend money? Will John Henry allow Craig Breslow to move some prospects for a difference-making player? The Sox have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball.
If I were the Red Sox, I’d probably trade for a starting pitcher.
Boston’s lineup is formidable, with Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and David Hamilton producing alongside Duran and Devers. They’re also speedy, having stolen the second-most bases in the American League (88).
While Andrew Bailey and Justin Willard have transformed Boston’s pitching staff into a top-five unit, I’m worried about usage. Tanner Houck has already exceeded his career-high single-season innings count. Kutter Crawford is coming close. Brayan Bello is still young and figuring things out. Nick Pivetta and Cooper Criswell can’t stay healthy, leading to bullpen games every five days.
Grabbing an Erick Fedde would work wonders for Boston. One move could catapult Boston into the playoffs, where anything could happen.
NL Wild Card Race
The National League Wild Card race is a roulette table. The difference between the Cardinals and the Reds is a measly 4.5 games. Any one of these teams could make a run.
Our Power Rankings love the Padres and Cardinals, and there’s a case to be made for both squads.
San Diego has already bought with the acquisition of Luis Arraez, and he’s helped turn the Padres into one of the more pesky lineups in baseball. The Pads are a contact-based lineup that excels against right-handed pitching, and that isn’t very pleasant for any team to face. I also quite like how starting pitchers Michael King and Dylan Cease have performed – although the latter is going through serious negative regression.
The Cardinals are far more intriguing. After a slow start, they’ve been arguably MLB’s best team over the past six weeks. The lineup has come alive, especially against right-handed pitching, and the back end of the bullpen is flying high – I really like JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley.
Conversely, I’m selling the Pirates. I think there’s an inning limit on guys like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones — why extend your prized prospect’s arms on a long-shot playoff bet? — and the lineup still struggles against right-handed pitching. Pittsburgh could be a real threat next season, but the Pirates are a year away from ascending to contender status.
Our Power Rankings team still thinks the Pirates are better than the Cubs, Tigers, or Nationals, but I believe they could be a legit playoff team in 2025 with a few tweaks. If I were in Pittsburgh’s front office, I’d argue to keep the elite young arms healthy while considering upgrading the lineup in the coming offseason.
Week 15 Power Rankings