Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, highlighting three teams among the different tiers of contention. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article, but where’s the fun in that?
The first month of the season is coming to a close, and with it wanes the hand-waving of small sample sizes. We know all too well that it takes more than a month of games for many meaningful stats to normalize, and it may require more than a season’s worth of games to truly distinguish the good from the great. But constrained to a 162-game season, the tailwind of regression can only push a team so far.
Any team can do just about anything in a week. As the New York Mets showed, crazy things can happen in two. And as the odds stack against those playoff hopefuls slipping and sliding their way through April, it becomes clear that real damage has already been done.
In a race to 90-ish wins, falling too far behind can lead to MLB’s version of disqualification: several months of meaningless baseball. Let’s take a look at who’s setting the pace through one month of action.
Contender
No. 2 New York Yankees (18-10, +47 run differential)
The Yankees have found themselves in pole position for the top seed in the American League. More so, they look like the only AL team dead set on World Series contention.
Unsurprisingly, that success starts with a slugger posting a wRC+ north of 200 with the fifth-most home runs in baseball. Aaron Judge Ben Rice has been the best hitter in this Yankees lineup. His breakout has arrived, and it’s provided their perennial MVP with a worthy co-star. Elsewhere, the emergence of Amed Rosario and the decision-making gains from Cody Bellinger have fortified the lineup. If one of Anthony Volpe or Jasson Domínguez can rediscover their best baseball, this division might be wrapped up by the trade deadline.
Judge and Rice have combined for 19 home runs in the early going. Their starting pitching has made the most of this breathing room. Cam Schlittler is a Cy Young candidate and is showing no signs of slowing down. Max Fried is his typical self, and the combination of Will Warren and Ryan Weathers has enjoyed a strong start to its season. Reinforcements are coming, too. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón don’t need to be aces to put New York in the driver’s seat the rest of the way.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) struck out five batters and allowed one earned run over eight innings! pic.twitter.com/a8MAdk8nVl
— Pitcher List Stats (@PitcherListPLV) April 24, 2026
At 18-10 (at time of writing), the Yankees have a 1.5-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. Life is awfully good compared to the turbulence from their downtrodden rivals, and positive regression from Jazz Chisholm Jr. could sweeten the pot. Starting pitching and star power is a sustainable way to win ballgames, and for the millionth year in a row, New York is accomplishing just that.
The Middle
No. 13 Arizona Diamondbacks (15-12, -5 run differential)
One downstream effect of the Mets and Philadelphia Phillies floundering through 30 days is an opening in the National League playoff picture. Just about every prognosticator had at least two NL East teams in the dance. Without that (sorry, Miami and Washington), there’s room for a surprise team to thrust itself into contention.
The Diamondbacks have flashed the feistiness to be that team. Against American League opponents, Arizona is an impressive 8-4. They handled business in New York and Philadelphia. They’ve split with the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres, too. Despite the negative run differential, this roster looks plenty capable of winning 85 games given the fragility of the National League Central and the state of San Diego’s rotation, that might prove to be more than enough.
¡José Fernández e Ildemaro Vargas sumaron su poder en la Mexico City Series!🤝 pic.twitter.com/u91v9ou9SH
— MLB Español (@mlbespanol) April 26, 2026
Part of that calculus comes from part-time contributors making outsized impacts. Ildemaro Vargas leads the team in fWAR! Rookie Jose Fernandez has as many big moments as weeks on a Major League roster. Even with Ketel Marte starting slow, the Diamondbacks have found a top-10 offense.
The pitching, of course, is a different story. The starters rank 28th in fWAR; the relievers are 23rd. Arizona’s walking a tightrope, but not without early-season gains from Eduardo Rodriguez (2.89 ERA), Michael Soroka (2.60), and Zac Gallen (3.14). We can pencil in some regression here. Even so, Arizona remains in the middle of the pack, with plenty of reasons for optimism.
Wait ‘Til 2027
No. 25 Boston Red Sox (11-17, -11 run differential)
To say things are going poorly in Boston would be an understatement. Beloved manager Alex Cora has been fired. So has half his coaching staff. Only four of their everyday starters have a wRC+ over 80, and one of those is the sophomore-slumping Roman Anthony.
Craig Breslow’s mess might soon border on mutiny.
Normally, a modest run differential and playoff odds approaching 35% would conjure up a little faith in trying times. Instead, the Boston faithful are left licking their wounds and wondering where the magic went. The Red Sox’s most expensive pitchers have faltered, their young bats have failed to launch, and the tension is palpable.
“We played the way AC would’ve wanted us to play.” – Connely Early pic.twitter.com/6wDyUo1dbp
— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) April 26, 2026
It’s worth noting that this team is three games out of the last playoff spot. The Yankees are only separated by seven games with over 130 left to play. Still, it’ll take more than Anthony pulling more fly balls to drag Boston back to relevance. Maybe the pairing of Connelly Early and Payton Tolle can provide some juice. Perhaps the frenzy of Cora’s postmortem fuels a summer-long comeback. For now, the Red Sox still look (and feel) like one of the American League’s worst teams.
No series describes Boston’s newfound futility like its recent clash with New York. The Yankees came to Fenway red hot and allowed three runs in as many games. Schlittler, public enemy No. 1, allowed one earned run over eight innings.
Where is the potency? The bite that made this a rivalry? It’s a fool’s errand to draw narrative conclusions from three-game sets and month-long slumps. But for a Red Sox team lost between its dysfunction and its tradition, the playoffs feel so much further than the standings suggest.
