Bold predictions for any sport in the preseason might be the most stress-free type of picks anyone can make. There’s no sense that you’ll feel foolish at the end of the season when one or, perhaps, none of your outlandish predictions are correct. After all, they are called BOLD PREDICTIONS, and none of them will fall under the Likely-to-Happen category.
Below are seven predictions for the upcoming MLB season, non-fantasy edition, that could realistically happen based on current trends, player abilities, and past performances. Am I confident in these picks? Not at all. But if someone gave me the right odds, I’d place money on all of them for the 2025 campaign.
The following is not ranked on a confidence scale from one to seven. In no particular order, let’s begin.
No Pitcher Will Throw 200 Innings
This is a prime example of a bold prediction. Why? It’s never happened in MLB history that one pitcher was unable to reach 200 innings pitched for an entire season.
In 2019, 15 pitchers reached the 200-inning plateau. Since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, the MLB hasn’t witnessed more than eight 200-inning pitchers in any season. Last year saw only four players reach the mark, with Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert leading MLB with 208.2 innings pitched.
This isn’t a promising trend, and it’s only going to get worse as more franchises implement six-man rotations. Even the preseason World Series favorite, the Los Angeles Dodgers, plan on using a six-man rotation this year in hopes of keeping their star-studded rotation relatively healthy. This will lead to more time off between starts, but unfortunately, it probably won’t increase the number of innings pitched per start. In 2024, the league average for innings pitched per game for starters was 5.22. What’s to stop this number from decreasing?
With arm injuries on the rise like we’ve never seen before and the old-school innings eaters like future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer well past their primes, it’s going to take the Gilberts, Logan Webbs, and Zack Wheelers of the world to keep MLB from falling short of something it never has before.
No pitcher will reach the 200-inning milestone in 2025.
MLB Batting Avg. Will Be Under .240
It might seem odd to predict that the leaguewide batting average will see a decline as the innings totals for starting pitchers decrease as well. However, with hitters today seeing more pitchers per week than ever, thanks to the decreases in innings pitched per start, it makes it that much harder for batters to adjust each plate appearance. The last time the league batting average finished below .240 was in 1968. It’s happened only three times in MLB history.
Tucker Wins NL MVP
As of this writing, BetMGM has the Chicago Cubs‘ newly acquired star, Kyle Tucker, with the sixth-best odds of winning the National League MVP award. Picking a player to win this award who you can pretty much pencil in for a .280-plus batting average, 30 home runs, and 100 RBI shouldn’t be considered a bold prediction. UNLESS, of course, he’s in the same league as three-time unanimous MVP Shohei Ohtani (current favorite to win the award) and on-base machine Juan Soto (second favorite).
BetMGM 2025 NL MVP Odds
Brewers Go From First to Last
It’s difficult to bet against the Milwaukee Brewers. This is a franchise that hasn’t finished in the basement of the NL Central since 2004, when it was still a six-team division. The Brew Crew cruised to a division crown by 10 games over the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals last season.
However, at some point, this team has to suffer from the big-name losses to its pitching staff over the last two years. In 2024, it was the offseason deal sending ace Corbin Burnes to Baltimore and news that their No. 2 arm Brandon Woodruff would miss the entire campaign after having shoulder surgery. Yet, Milwaukee survived and won 93 games.
Now, we’re in 2025, and they no longer have the services of Devin Williams, one of the top closers in baseball. Woodruff’s timetable for a return is up in the air, but even when back on the bump, how much can he be counted on after missing a full season? As it stands right now, the projected rotation to begin the campaign will be Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, and newly acquired veteran Jose Quintana. (Tobias Myers is expected to miss some time early with an oblique injury sustained Saturday.) It’s a serviceable pitching staff, but it shouldn’t worry opponents in the way it has recently.
Offensively, there are some question marks as well. Will outfielder Christian Yelich stay healthy after back surgery? Can the Brewers withstand the loss of shortstop Willy Adames, the team’s leading power source who finished with 32 homers and 112 RBI last season? If the answer is yes to both questions, then this bold prediction probably won’t come true. If the answer is no to both, then given the probability that Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Chicago should all improve on last season’s records, it’s possible that Milwaukee finishes in last place for the first time in two decades.
Blue Jays Go From Last to First
This is a trend and rebound prediction for a team that has fallen short of expectations for quite some time.
The Trend: Toronto has finished in every position in the AL East standings except for first place over the last four seasons. Since 2021, their order of finish in the division has been fourth, second, third, and, of course, fifth in 2024. The Jays are due to win a division title for the first time since 2015.
The Rebound: Bo Bichette went from one of the best young infielders in MLB from 2021-23 before falling off his pedestal in 2024, finishing with a slash line of .225/.277/.322 over 81 games. Understandably, he had calf issues all year and saw his season come to an end with a fractured finger in September, long after the Jays were out of the race. It is difficult to foresee a career .290 hitter having such a dismal season again. Bichette should be back to his normal self. If so, a warning to the AL East…watch out.
The bottom line: if the new acquisitions like outfielder Anthony Santander, three-time Gold Glove winner Andrés Giménez, and even the old man in what was already an aging rotation, Max Scherzer, can stay on the field and play to their potential, then the Jays should easily improve on their 74-88 record in 2024.
Sadly, the biggest distraction appears to be off the field as their star first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., entering his walk year, will not be making any deals during the season with Toronto’s front office after the two sides were far apart in extension talks. Assuming this won’t affect Guerrero on the field, there’s no reason to believe he won’t have another monster year, and with an improved lineup around him, the Jays should be in the AL East race.
As of this writing, PECOTA standings projects the Jays to win 85 games and finish second in the AL East to Baltimore. Of all seven predictions in this article, I’m most confident in this one.
All Division Races Will Be Tight
Sticking with division predictions, this might be the least likely to occur, which makes it about as bold a call as there is.
Let’s begin with a history lesson. The last time five or fewer games decided more than three division races was in 2012. That season, four divisions were settled by five or fewer games, which ranks in a tie for the most such races since MLB went to a six-division format in 1994. Speaking of 1994, the ominous year of the in-season strike, three division races were within one game, while no division lead was greater than 6.5 games before the campaign came to a halt on August 12. That is the closest we’ve seen all six division races at a season’s conclusion, even though ’94 never had an official ending.
2024 saw every division race decided by 6.5 games or fewer, except in the NL Central, which, as mentioned earlier, the Brewers won by double digits. On paper, every division has three or more legitimate playoff contenders, meaning teams that should be in the postseason race in September. As an example of how much PECOTA standings disagree with my bold prediction, they have the Dodgers currently at about a 16-game favorite in the NL West over the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s a bold prediction in itself, considering Arizona’s offseason additions and likely run at a playoff berth.
Bold prediction: Every division race will be decided by five games or fewer.
Division races are what makes September baseball great. My confidence level in this prediction is probably at about a three on a scale of 10. However, if every division race is as close as I predict, then that means we’re all in for one helluva 2025 campaign. Let’s witness some history.
World Series Rematch: Rangers-D’backs
Rarity. That’s the word that best summarizes this prediction.
Not only was it rare to see the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in the 2023 World Series as two wild-card underdogs (seeded five and six, respectively), but it’s even rarer to witness two franchises who met in the World Series to both miss out on the playoffs the following year. That was the case in 2024, when both the Rangers and Diamondbacks fell short of the postseason. The last time that occurred before ’24 was in 2007, after the Cardinals defeated the Detroit Tigers in the ’06 Fall Classic.
It’s also a rarity for two franchises to meet in the World Series twice in three years. The last time that feat took place was in 1977 and ’78 when the New York Yankees defeated the Dodgers in back-to-back Fall Classics.
As of Friday, BetMGM had the Rangers with the fifth-best odds of winning the 2025 AL pennant, while the Diamondbacks had the seventh-highest odds in the National League.
CASE FOR RANGERS WINNING AL PENNANT
2024 wasn’t kind to the Rangers, who finished third in the AL West with a 78-84 record a year after winning 90 games. Texas was supposed to continue its offensive dominance last season and find a way to the playoffs regardless of the questionable pitching staff. Once again, former ace Jacob deGrom missed basically the entire season after managing a hair over 10 innings pitched before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s thrown only 41 innings in two seasons with the Rangers and once again will hope to stay on the field in 2025.
The truth is, it’s hard to look at a staff with deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Tyler Mahle as your top three arms and not worry. Right-hander Jon Gray will miss significant time after fracturing his wrist on March 14. However, assuming the offensive studs like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis García can return to their 2023 forms after seeing a decline in production last year, then it’s not difficult to picture the Rangers finding a way back to the World Series. Remember, the AL pitching staffs are nowhere near as good as the NL’s.
The current AL betting favorite is the Yankees, despite the fact that they’ve lost ace Gerrit Cole for the year (Tommy John surgery) and last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, for three months with a lat strain. I’m no more confident in a Yankees staff now led by an oft-injured Max Fried and Carlos Rodón than I am with a potentially great deGrom and always-steady Eovaldi.
CASE FOR DIAMONDBACKS WINNING NL PENNANT
Let’s be honest. Any bets right now against the Dodgers are probably foolish. The Dodgers are the prohibitive favorite in the NL and, realistically, the only way someone knocks them out of the postseason and keeps them from becoming the first repeat World Series champs since the 1998-99 Yankees is to hold their bats at bay with good pitching.
With the addition of Burnes atop the D’backs’ rotation, followed by Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt, there’s no reason to believe that if healthy come October, this staff can’t hold its own against any opponent. Keep in mind, left-hander Jordan Montgomery is hoping for a bounce-back season after a horrendous 2024 in which he posted a 6.23 ERA a year after playing a key role on the Rangers squad that knocked off Arizona in five games. If Montgomery is back to his ’23 form, then Arizona will have six legitimate starting pitcher options.
On the offensive side, Arizona replaced first baseman Christian Walker with former Cleveland Guardians slugger Josh Naylor (31 home runs in ’24). Power shouldn’t be an issue for a franchise that ranked fifth in MLB with 211 homers last season. If former NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll can regain his 2023 form, then the offense should be elite again.
Carroll 2023 stats: .285/.362/.506 slash line with 54 steals
Carroll 2024 stats: .231/.322/.428 slash line with 35 steals
Is there a bolder prediction on this list than picking Arizona to make the World Series in 2025 as the seventh favorite in the NL?
Make no mistake, this potential World Series is a long shot, but at their best, both franchises have proven what they can do in October as underdogs. Given their current odds of making it back to the Fall Classic, I’ll take my chances.