Angel in the Outfield
Angel Martínez (CLE): 4-5, 2B, HR, R, 4 RBI, SB.
Angel Martínez and the rest of the Guardians offense benefited from an unusually short Cole Ragans start yesterday. Martínez was hitting second for the third straight game after mostly bouncing around the bottom of the lineup to begin the season. He struck out in the first vs Ragans, but after a José Ramírez liner up the middle bruised Ragans’ thumb, Martínez and the Guardians offense got to work against the Royals bullpen. Martínez had a soft single in the second, then hit three straight batted balls of over 105 mph, culminating in a grand slam in the 8th inning to put the game even further out of reach. Martínez’s 4 hits on the day were a career high for the young outfielder, who improved his season line to a strong .310/.412/.483.
It’s important not to overreact to an excellent performance against an unplanned bullpen game. Coming into yesterday’s game, Martínez was slashing .208/.345/.250 with a single extra-base hit on the season. That being said, there have been some incremental improvements in Martínez’s profile so far this year that are precisely what you want to see from a young player acclimating to the majors. Martínez has cut his chase rate by 4 percentage points without losing any aggression in the zone. He has also improved on his already elite zone contact rate, as well as making more contact outside the zone as well. This has led to a minuscule 5.8% swinging strike rate, 8.6% BB rate, and 17.1% K rate, all of which are 4-5 percentage point improvements on last year. He’s also already had his hardest hit ball for his career, and his bat speed metrics are climbing ever so slightly higher. He’s still not the most exciting profile in the game, but if he continues playing nearly every day, he could easily improve upon his 2025 output of 11 homers and 8 steals while raising his batting average thanks to his improved discipline.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday
Hunter Goodman (COL): 1-2, HR, 3 R, RBI, 2 BB, SB.
Goodman and the Rockies also had the benefit of an unplanned Astros bullpen game when Cristian Javier left the game before the second inning with “right shoulder tightness.” The Rockies were exceptionally aggressive on the basepaths to start the game with three steals in the first two innings, including the third of Goodman’s career. Goodman had a solid start to the season as the Rockies opened with six road games, but struggled in his first 5 home games leading into yesterday. All of his metrics look pretty similar this far into the season, with maybe the only exceptions being a slightly reduced zone swing percentage and an even higher average launch angle, so nothing really should be changing your expectations here.
Nico Hoerner (CHC): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Hoerner continued his scorching hot start to the season by leading off the game with his first homer of the year. He’s not going to wow you with his power—his homer and single were barely above the Statcast threshold for hard hit balls—but he’s making contact in the zone at a 98.2% clip so far this year, which would have led MLB last year by a full percentage point over Luis Arraez’s career high 97.3%. He’s swinging less both in and out of the zone, causing his CSW to tick up a bit from last year despite pitchers being in the zone less against him so far this year. I’m not really seeing anything that would explain his walk rate more than doubling or a 50-point jump in his BABIP, so just enjoy the hot streak while it lasts. These stats still count at the end of the season and there’s certainly no reason to expect him to underperform his projections going forward.
Sal Stewart (CIN): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB.
It’s tough rooting for the Reds offense right now as, apart from Stewart, only Elly De La Cruz has an above-average wRC+. Stewart’s homer was a no-doubter, taking a low 87 MPH changeup from Eury Perez 105.5 MPH to left on a hit that would have left all thirty parks. His double was a scorched 106 MPH grounder off Perez as well earlier in the game. Stewart also has a bit of speed in his game, stealing double-digit bags in each of his three full minor league seasons. He was part of the league-wide trend of feasting off Marlins catching, picking up two of his three steals in their three game series.
Taylor Ward (BAL): 4-5, 3 2B, R, 2 RBI.
Taylor Ward continues to enjoy life as an Oriole. He had three batted balls between 94 and 102 MPH for a flyout and two doubles, then added a single and a double off less sharp contact. For a hitter that produces as many homers as he does, Ward has a short and slow swing, averaging just under 7 feet of swing length and 68 MPH of bat speed. His swing speed and length are identical to Brendan Donovan so far this year, and somehow Ward also has a flatter swing. Given Ward’s consistently higher launch angles, there’s definitely something more to unpack about how swing metrics translate into batted ball characteristics. If Ward ever decides to muscle up and swing harder, he could benefit from a chat with new teammate Tyler O’Neill who was telling fans in the bleachers during the Orioles final spring training game that he’s benching 315 these days.
Rafael Devers (SFG): 2-4, HR, R, 4 RBI.
Devers hit a moonshot 411 feet to straightaway center on a ball that left the bat at 108 MPH. His three-run homer broke a 0-0 tie in the 7th inning, and he tacked on the final insurance run with a hard hit single in the 8th. Devers was a more passive hitter after joining the Giants last year, leading to increases in his CSW and K rate. He’s swinging the bat more often this season and still has excellent power, so we should expect an improvement on his 2025 with the Giants. I’d still guess he’ll be under his career batting average this season due to the differences in home parks, but it shouldn’t be as extreme of a swing as we saw last year (50 points).
Edouard Julien (COL): 2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, SB.
The Rockies seemed to have a plan to run on the Astros yesterday and stuck to it even after Cristian Javier left the game. This wasn’t a game where Yainer Diaz was catching, but rather a substantially better defender in Christian Vázquez. Julien stole a base in the first and got picked off in the 5th as the Rockies attempted 4 steals. The Rockies are a fascinating team to watch at the start of the year since they’ve finally hired a modern front office and committed to joining the rest of baseball in the 21st century. Julien has been relying on an unsustainable .375 BABIP for his production this year, but he’s exactly the type of player the Rockies should be giving opportunities to (and haven’t in the past). His K-rate has dropped marginally although his CSW is in line with the rest of his MLB numbers, so there might be nothing here, but it’s always worth keeping an eye on Rockies hitters.
Rhys Hoskins (CLE): 3-4, 3 2B, R, RBI.
All of Hoskins’ 4 batted balls were 97.9 MPH or harder, with his sole out being on a 102.1 MPH ball he skied at a 50 degree launch angle. Hoskins is swinging less than ever to start the season, leading to big increases in his walk and strikeout rates. Hoskins hasn’t left the yard yet despite an extreme 33.2 degree average launch angle, but with Kyle Manzardo’s wRC+ being 6 and the Guardians offense scuffling, he should continue getting opportunities. Hoskins does have an outrageous .467 BABIP at this point in the season, so there are some red flags in his profile as well. Everything about his season at this point, good and bad, seems like just small sample noise.
Austin Riley (ATL): 1-3, 2B, 3 R, 2 BB, SB.
Are the Braves running?! One of the fantasy relevant subplots to the Braves season will be whether Antoan Richardson can coach them to Juan Soto-ian heights on the basepaths after joining in the offseason. Riley and Michael Harris II both stole bases off Logan O’Hoppe, who only caught 20% of attempted thefts last year. Riley’s double was softly hit, but well-placed, and he lined out on a 104.7 MPH ball that had an over 50% chance of landing for a hit. He’s had a slow start to the season, but there’s nothing to do except hold and hope for improvements at this point.
