The Diamondbacks hit their competitive window a year early this summer, winning the National League, and reaching the World Series. Led by the young stars Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and Zac Gallen, the D’Backs are here to stay and have plenty of high-end talent coming soon. Let’s take a look at the farm system for the defending NL Champs!
The Top Tier
1) Jordan Lawlar, SS, Age: 21
2023 MLB: .129 AVG | .206 OBP | .335 SLG | 0 HR | 1 SB | 35.5 K% | 6.5 BB%
2023 MiLB (AA/AAA): .278 AVG | .378 OBP | .496 SLG | 20 HR | 36 SB | 24.2 K% | 13.4 BB%
Lawlar is unequivocally the face of the Diamondbacks’ system and figures to play a massive role for the MLB club this season. Lawlar was the 6th overall pick in 2021 and quickly made his name known across the minor leagues. In 2022, Lawlar played across four levels, hitting .303 with 16 homers and 39 steals, culminating with a trip to the prestigious Arizona Fall League. A shoulder injury ended his season early, but Lawlar was a consensus top-25 prospect entering 2023. After a slow start in 2023, Lawlar took off and finished strong, earning a promotion to the Diamondbacks late in September. His MLB debut was a struggle, but Lawlar has the skills to thrive as a big leaguer.
Standing at 6’1″, Lawlar has the prototypical shortstop size and can stick at the position long-term. However, the Diamondbacks love Geraldo Perdomo, so a scenario where Lawlar flips to second or third base shortly is in play. Offensively, Lawlar has all the makings of a superstar. His power plays to all fields, and his plus speed provides a consistent double-digit home run-steal floor. Lawlar has struggled a bit with his contact skills but improved his plate discipline in the middle of last season, stabilizing his walk rate while cutting down the strikeouts. The strikeouts did spike in his brief MLB stint, but Lawlar is 21 years old and had a limited sample size.
Entering 2024, Lawlar could start the season in the minors, although the offseason carousel remains fluid. The Diamondbacks are contenders and have been aggressive with their prospects to put the best 26-man squad together. Lawlar offers an exciting power-speed blend in the middle infield and is a high-end dynasty asset moving forward.
Jordan Lawlar since May 25:
230 PAs
.310/.400/.560
151 wRC+
10 HR
18 SBJust turned 21 🚀 pic.twitter.com/HHtIjMq8Iw
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) August 5, 2023
2) Druw Jones, OF, Age: 20
2023 MiLB (ROOKIE/A): .238 AVG | .353 OBP | .327 SLG | 2 HR | 9 SB | 30.6 K% | 17.7 BB%
For all the hype and excitement surrounding Druw Jones‘ selection of 2nd overall in 2022, the disappointment following 2023 has been just as prevalent. Injuries and sub-par performance have hampered Jones since day one, but his enormous potential is difficult to look past. The first setback was a shoulder injury shortly after the draft, followed by two leg (quad, hamstring) injuries to start in 2023. When he’s been healthy, he has not been impressive.
Jones has the physical attributes (6’4″, 190 lbs.) and the pedigree as the son of future Hall of Famer Andruw Jones. Jones has impressive plate skills, headlined by a lightning-quick bat that produces massive velocity readings. He has plus speed and is an above-average defender (big surprise, right?) with the instinct to play anywhere in the outfield. The big red flag, beyond his injuries, has been a lack of contact. In a small 2023 sample, Jones struck out over 30% of the time, although his walk rates were outstanding. The offensive tools are impressive, but the verdict is out on his ability to hit the ball consistently.
It’s far too early to waive the white flag on Jones, especially at 20 years old. In prospect circles, he’s a clear buy-low, as many have either forgotten about him or are concerned by the combination of risk/performance thus far. However, 2024 could be pivotal for Jones and may be the season that vaults him back to the top or slips him further into prospect purgatory.
3) Tommy Troy, SS, Age: 21
2023 MiLB (ROOKIE/ A+): .271 AVG | .374 OBP | .469 SLG | 4 HR | 9 SB | 29.2 K% | 16.7 BB%
With plenty of shortstops already in the fold, the Diamondbacks continued to add depth by selecting Tommy Troy, a shortstop from Stanford, with the twelfth overall pick in 2023. Troy was a first-team All-conference performer and an All-American by many publications. As a junior, Troy hit .394 with 17 homers and steals en route to winning the conference batting title. He parlayed that performance into a first-round selection. In a brief minor league debut, Troy posted respectable numbers, including four homers and nine steals across 27 games.
Troy has excellent bat-to-ball skills and hits the ball to all fields consistently. He has advanced plate discipline, rarely chases, and minimizes strikeouts. In his brief MiLB debut, he struck out at a 30% clip, although not an indicator of past performance. Troy is a good athlete with plus speed who will run, although that’s not a consistent part of his profile. Defensively, Troy has played at three infield positions and in the outfield but profiles more as an infielder.
Troy is an exciting player who may be better as a real-life player than a fantasy asset. I anticipate Troy beginning the season at Double-A, but with his collegiate experience, he may be a fast riser through the system. Troy is solidly a top-100 prospect with the upside to reach around 50th overall at his peak.
4) Gino Groover, 3B, Age: 21
2023 MiLB (ROOKIE/ A+): .283/.348/.394/ 1 HR/ 1 SB/ 10.1 K%/ 8.1 BB%
“Gino” Groover (birth name LuJames III) was another 2023 draft selection for the Diamondbacks, this time in the second round with pick 48 overall. Groover played collegiately at NC State, leading the Wolfpack in several offensive categories, including hits, runs, RBI, and homers. During his junior season, Groover reached base in 55 of 57 games, which included a 36:26 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
As evidenced by his statistical output, Groover is a high-OBP performer with advanced bat-to-ball skills. The power upside is in question, but his ability to hit for average and get on base is not. Groover is not an overly athletic player and has moderate speed at best. Groover is playing third base in the minors, although his long-term home remains uncertain, and a positional change is likely.
As a prospect, Groover is ranked around 175-200 overall, with limited potential to climb higher as he’s currently constructed. If power develops, Groover would offer a rare blend of power and contact, providing a more intriguing fantasy outlook.
5) Yu-Min Lin, LHP, Age: 20
2023 MiLB (A+/AA): 121.1 IP | 3.86 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 28.2 K% | 9.7 BB%
The top pitcher in the Arizona organization is left-hander Yu-Min Lin, a starter originally from Chinese Taipei. Lin signed with the Diamondbacks in 2021 and immediately became an impact arm. In 2022, Lin had a 40% strikeout rate across two levels, finishing with 91 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings pitched. While his strikeout rate dipped in 2023, Lin faced significantly better hitters moving to Double-A Amarillo this summer.
Lin has a small frame (5’11”, 165 lbs.) with an arsenal relying more on deception and movement than power. His fastball reaches 92mph but sits comfortably in the high-80s or low-90s. Lin has three plus off-speed pitches, including a changeup, slider, and curveball. In his delivery, Lin has a pronounced step back followed by a twisting upper body that hides the ball well until delivery. That combination of deception and a four-pitch mix makes Lin a productive strikeout pitcher while limiting walks.
The biggest question with Lin is how the arsenal plays against the game’s elite hitters, but posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in hitter-friendly Amarillo is an encouraging start. I believe Lin starts the season at Triple-A Reno, yet another bandbox park. If Lin continues his strikeout prowess with low walk rates, we could see him debut in 2024.
Very few (~10?) MiLB arms I prefer to Yu-Min Lin, who twirled another gem last night (10:1 K:BB). 📈
The teenager has been baffling older competition for two years and added velo this szn.
pic.twitter.com/kxgbcTbgAr— Nostra Thomas (@TomTrudeau) June 25, 2023
6) Cristofer Torin, 2B/SS, Age: 18
2023 MiLB (ROOKIE/A): .272 AVG | .369 OBP | .354 SLG | 4 HR | 21 SB | 16.1 K% | 14.4 BB%
Cristofer Torin is a player who first caught my eye in the 2022 DSL. Torin signed with the D’Backs early in the 2022 International Class out of Venezuela. His first professional exposure was in the DSL that summer, hitting .333 with 21 steals and 37 walks to 20 strikeouts. He followed an impressive first year with a solid 2023 across two levels. This season, he continued to show off his plate skills and added some power production to go with his speed.
Torin turned 18 this May but has shown an advanced feel for the zone and plate discipline that has limited his strikeouts while producing elevated walk rates. I’m not sure where the power ultimately ends up, but Torin has shown the ability to hit for a high average and run, generating 20+ steals in his two minor league seasons. As it stands, Torin is playing mainly shortstop at Low-A, and he grades as an above-average defender.
It’s hard to get a firm evaluation of what Torin becomes, especially as his body grows and his skills improve. As a dynasty asset, I’d stash Torin in leagues that roster 250+ prospects and keep an eye on his power output over the next two seasons, which could push him up significantly.
7) Jack Hurley, OF, Age: 21
2023 MiLB (ROOKIE/A/A+): .276 AVG | .374 OBP | .409 SLG | 2 HR | 10 SB | 34.6 K% | 12.6 BB%
Hurley, a 2023 3rd-round pick, is an intriguing collegiate bat out of Virginia Tech. Hurley, a two-time first-team All-ACC performer, finished his career in Blacksburg with a .321 batting average, 37 home runs, and a 1.014 OPS. In addition, he set a school record with a 26-game hitting streak that culminated this season.
Hurley has a solid frame, standing 6 feet and 195 pounds. He is quick to the ball and generates plenty of power. As with most young hitters, with the power comes the swing-and-miss. His contact skills need to improve, as he posted a strikeout rate north of 25% in his collegiate days and a near 35% rate in a limited minor league sample. If he can bolster his contact skills, he has a legit shot for a 20-20 bat. As players approach their FYPD drafts, Hurley is a late-round option with power upside.
Prospects Dynasty Managers Should Know
8) A.J. Vukovich, 3B, Age: 22
2023 MiLB (AAA): .263 AVG | .333 OBP | .485 SLG | 24 HR | 20 SB | 31.6 K% | 10.1 BB%
Vukovich is a super athletic outfielder with some impressive power and speed. His plate discipline improved last season, raising his walk rate to 10%, up nearly 6% from a dreadful number in 2022. His next step is cutting down his strikeouts to capitalize on his plus power.
9) Dominic Fletcher, OF, Age: 26
2023 MLB: .301 AVG | .350 OBP | .441 SLG | 2 HR | 0 SB | 23.7 K% | 8.6 BB%
2023 MiLB (AAA): .291 AVG | .399 OBP | .500 SLG | 10 HR | 5 SB | 22.3 K% | 15.1 BB%
Fletcher is among a trio of young D’Backs outfielders (Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy) competing for the fourth OF spot on the Arizona roster. Fletcher lacks the athleticism to be a consistent baserunning threat and has yet to show enough power to overtake his competition. Fletcher likely needs a change of scenery to find a full-time role.
10) Ivan Melendez, 3B/1B, Age: 23
2023 MiLB (A+,AA): .272 AVG | .345 OBP | .578 SLG | 30 HR | 4 SB | 38.5 K% | 8.2 BB%
The “Hispanic Titanic” remains the best nickname in baseball, but Melendez is falling in prospect circles. His power is legit, but his strikeout totals are so pronounced that his value is sinking like the ship he draws his nickname from. In addition, Melendez is a well below-average defender, which may force him into a designated hitter role if he makes the big leagues.
11) Jansel Luis, 2B/SS, Age: 18
2023 MiLB (ROOKIE, A): .269 AVG | .335 OBP | .441 SLG | 7 HR | 16 SB | 21.4 K% | 7.1 BB%
Jansel Luis was part of the 2022 International class and has quickly risen up the ranks. Luis is a switch-hitting middle infielder with good plate skills and a solid defensive game. As his body matures and adds strength, Luis’ power will come, propelling him up the prospect ranks.
12) Blaze Alexander, INF, Age: 24
2023 MiLB (ROOKIE, AAA): .290 AVG | .401 OBP | .472 SLG | 10 HR | 2 SB | 32.7 K% | 15.6 BB%
Alexander is a glove-first utility infielder. His power has improved over the last two seasons, but he must improve his strikeout rate. His glove will keep him on the field, but will his bat catch up?
13) Landon Sims, RHP, Age:22
2023 MiLB (ROOK, A): 24.2 IP | 5.47 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 25.7 K% | 11.0 BB%
Sims was a star closer at Mississippi State but underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022, missing most of this past season. Sims has two plus pitches, a mid-90s fastball, and a devastating slider. The Diamondbacks are giving Sims the opportunity to start in the organization with an eye on 2024 to evaluate his long-term role.
14) Slade Cecconi, RHP, Age: 24
2023 MLB: 27 IP | 4.33 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | 18.0 K% | 3.6 BB%
2023 MiLB (AAA): 116.1 IP | 6.11 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 23.3 K% | 7.1 BB%
Cecconi is a two-pitch pitcher who offers a mid-90s fastball and a solid slider. The lack of a consistent third offering limits his strikeout upside and has increased his reliever risk. Cecconi pounds the zone, but unless his fastball is missing bats, expect inconsistent results.
15) Dylan Ray, RHP, Age: 22
2023 MiLB (A+, AA): 113.1 IP | 4.37 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 29.3 K% | 8.5 BB%
Injuries sidetracked Ray’s collegiate career, but his first season in 2023 gave the Diamondbacks hope about his future. Ray has a power arsenal featuring a mid-90s fastball and two consistent breaking pitches. If he can remain healthy, Ray has the talent to stick in the rotation and offers significant strikeout upside.
The Next Five
16) Jorge Barrosa (Age:22): Elite centerfielder with limited offensive upside. His defense can get him to the Show, but his bat will control his destiny.
17) Grayson Hitt (Age:22): Will miss 2024 recovering from TJ but offers an intriguing four-pitch mix. Command and continued development of breaking pitches will determine his fate.
18) Kristian Robinson (Age:23): Super toolsy post-hype prospect. Personal issues have hampered his development, but there is reason for optimism. Robinson is worth a flier in deep dynasty leagues.
19) Ricardo Yan (Age:21): Talented sinkerballer with outstanding movement on all pitches. Command is an issue, but missing bats is not.
20) Ruben Santana (Age:18): A talented but raw young infielder who has shown offensive upside and defensive prowess. Santana could be a quick riser in the organization in 2024.
So who are the three OF ahead of Alek Thomas (the presumptive starter in CF)/McCarthy/Fletcher on the depth chart? Carroll, Gurriel and … ?