Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is Fantasy vs. Reality! Fantasy is a great world where I can always improve with a trade. Reality is having to go to an underground iron-enforced shelter as missiles hail down on me from a country I know nothing about. And I thought the toughest part about moving here from the US would be trying to place FAAB bids when the deadline is at 5 AM and I miss all the pivotal Sunday night game action, amirite? Anyway, here’s a semi-delirious look at some of the top names, though I do regret giving some short shrift to some other guys I like, such as J.P. Crawford, Mickey Moniak, Ronny Mauricio, and the like. Still, sometimes the best assets are the less flashy ones. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Luis García Jr. (2B, Washington Nationals)
There’s a gap between his expected and actual production bigger than the gap between his two front teeth. Bet he hocks a killer loogie. I’ll admit I had Garcia Jr. on my drop list early on, and I felt pretty good about that, as he was mired in a platoon. But as the season has worn on, his quality of contact keeps rising, and it’s still flying under the radar. On the season, he holds a pedestrian .259/.304/.408 line with six homers and seven SB, but he’s been incredibly unlucky with a superb xBA of .312 and xSLG of .519. How could reality lead us so far astray?
Well, his expected stats have been steadily rising, and when you look into the peripherals, it’s clear to see why. Compared to his breakout season in 2024, he’s cut his strikeout rate down from 16% to 13%, increased his HardHit% from 42% to 46%, and increased his barrels from 8% to 10%. The latter looks a bit more impressive when you instead use Barrels per plate appearance, where it instead rises from 6% to 8%, a 33% increase. Given that his MaxEV is also one mph higher than last year and he’s still just 25, I think this is a redraft and dynasty must-buy right now. After all, while he’s still in a platoon, the value he provides the rest of the time is worth it, especially at such a weak keystone position. Invite the Junior to Prom in 10-team formats.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Westburg (2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles) – He’s finally back and showing the thump we missed in April, hitting .385 with three homers in 26 AB while qualifying at two of the weakest positions on the diamond. Need I say more?
Honorable Mention: Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, Houston Astros) – He’s back from his IL stint, and historically, he has performed better in the summer months as a player who really can use those extra few feet on his pulled flyballs. I still think too many people assume he’ll finish somewhere between 2023 and 2024, when I think he can reach a whole new level with the best LA SweetSpot of his career (40%) and a noticeably better HardHit% (34%) than his sub-30% mark the past two years.
Honorable Mention: Yandy Díaz (1B/3B, Houston Astros) – While his season line doesn’t impress much, he’s rocking a .295 xBA and .492 xSLG, and is hitting the ball much harder than last year, with a HC% that ranks 2nd in baseball and an IPA% that ranks 32nd overall (a good sign for a grounder-prone hitter).
12-team
Evan Carter (OF, Texas Rangers)
Carter is dunking so much on opposing pitchers, they may start calling him Evansanity. Okay, I realize that joke doesn’t work as well unless you read it out loud. And now you just did. Carter seems to be a whole new man after his return from the IL, making me wonder if he was nursing this for a while. Carter is hitting a phenomenal .375 with three homers and two SB (one CS) in 32 AB over the past two weeks, showing that he can do enough damage against righties to reduce platoon concerns. He could still be flying under your radar, hitting .273 with four homers and five SB on the season, but don’t forget that is in just 66 AB (75 PA).
With elite 96th percentile sprint speed, he could be a real force if you need speed without wanting to make sacrifices to your power or batting average, and especially not your OBP. With the struggles of Texas outfielders, he’ll have plenty of runway with health, especially with his hot run and a team that’s likely out of contention wanting to get reps in for the young stud. In trade leagues, it may be too late to buy low, but not yet too late to buy medium. And you should probably buy medium.
Honorable Mention: Bryan Reynolds (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) – Like clockwork, Reynolds has had an xwOBA surge over his last 100 PA and now has peripherals that surpass his performance last season, thanks to trading off a higher strikeout rate for more barrels. With a season line of .222/.295/.360 with just eight HRs and three SB, he can probably be had for cheaper than he’s worth.
Honorable Mention: Javier Báez (SS/3B/OF, Detroit Tigers) – He can’t keep getting away with this! Or can he? After a brief lull, he’s hit .500 with three homers this week, and even though Statcast still thinks he’s league average, with his multi-eligibility, I think you forget the advanced stats and make this pick on vibes.
15-team
Michael Toglia (1B/OF, Colorado Rockies)
If you need to beef up your offense, take the guy turning opposing baseballs into bolognese, Michael Tagliatelle. Seriously, if you’ve never tried that meat/pasta combo, you’re missing out. Toglia made a big splash in his return with a two-homer day, and this kind of reeks admittedly of the “rush to the wire and hold to see if this is real before throwing him back”. Still, I’m encouraged by the fact he hit for the same ISO in Triple-A as he did prior to his call-up last year, although the K rate was a bit higher.
Still, it’s the summer, and this is when power hitters like Toglia can win you a week with a homer barrage. Last year, he cut his K% down as the season went on, and I think he can do it again. In 15-team leagues (heck, I managed to snag him back today in a few 30-team dynasty leagues), it’s admittedly a bit of a hail mary play, but if you’re still holding guys like Kyle Manzardo or Jake Cronenworth at your corner infield, you may as well take the shot on the upside of Togs, and not forget why he was drafted in the top 200 picks earlier this year (not saying that was wise, but still). It’s a long season, and I’ve seen more unlikely redemption arcs, add in 15-team formats, and consider him as a bench stash in 12-team OBP.
Honorable Mention: Carlos Narváez (C, Boston Red Sox) – Rafael Devers is gone! What about lineup protection? Phooey! What about the fact that Narvaez, who is still hitting a cromulent .277 with six homers, is now hitting cleanup for the Sawx? Wow, that’s sad. But still, he’s in a better playing time situation than most other catchers and is seriously under-rostered given his accumulator potential.
Honorable Mention: Cam Smith (3B/OF, Houston Astros) – Until this two-homer stat stuffer game, he really hadn’t been doing much of anything, but the important thing is he keeps getting chances, and I expect his 90th percentile bat speed and 91st percentile sprint speed to start translating more to production playing half his games in a hitter-friendly park in the summer.
Deep Leagues
Daniel Schneemann (2B/3B/SS/OF, Cleveland Guardians)
He’s been mired in a slump, which is why he’s back in the deep league realm. And at the end of the day, I think he’s still deserving to be a 15-team kind of guy with his penchant for high barrel rates and willingness to steal bases, even with a contact rate that teeters on the edge of viability. Roster Resource currently lists him as the strong side of a platoon at 2B, and with Angel Martínez not showing much at the plate, I think Schneemann can still find his way into 15 homers and 10 stolen bases and be quite useful as one of the most multi-eligible hitter in the game, (also 1B in CBS formats).
Honorable Mention: Christian Moore (2B, Los Angeles Angels) – Hitting .077 in your first 15 PA isn’t how you like to kick off a career, but I think it’s too early to abandon ship in the deepest formats. He’s still showing premium bat speed and should benefit once he gets his reps in, which I think he can still do with the lack of competition in the middle infield.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Benintendi (OF, Chicago White Sox) – Sure, you could argue he’s more of a 15-teamer play, but it’s possible he ended up on your wire after hitting just .235/.302/.404 with six HR and no SBs in 183 PA, and hitting just .211 with one RBI in 38 AB the past two weeks. But his xwOBA has been steadily rising, and a homer barrage may still be in store with a shockingly high 15% barrel%, more than double his career rate (7%). There’s no pun to finish this writeup, but Benintended to write one.
SELL
Iván Herrera (C, St. Louis Cardinals)
Although his surface stats may make him seem as untouchable as Rasputin, lately, he’s been more like Ivan the Herrerable. In a trade league, he’s a prime sell-high canditate as he’s still above that vaunted .300 mark with a shiny .315 AVG and eight HR (and even a stolen base!), but it hides the fact that he’s been one of the biggest xwOBA decliners in his past 100 PA, with a .309 xwOBA over his past 100 PA compared to a .474 mark prior to that. Now granted, a .474 xwOBA is astounding, so even though he’s the third-biggest decliner, his .309 mark is still higher than the other bottom 5. But he’s outperforming his expected stats also with a .280 xBA and .500 xSLG, which again aren’t bad! But the combination of the superior surface stats and hype may still allow you to buy low on a catcher like Yainer Diaz, who I still believe in more this year, or an upgrade elsewhere since the floor at C is higher this year in single-catcher formats.
Dishonorable Mention: Cedric Mullins (OF, Baltimore Orioles) – Stolen bases are always fickle, but it’s pretty concerning that Mullins, who stole 32 bases last year, still only has eight SB this year in 206 AB, including none since his return from a hamstring strain. With Cowser back from the IL and Carlson and Laureano hitting well, he may see reduced playing time, which really makes him an all-around drain in 10-team formats.
12-team
Nathaniel Lowe (1B, Washington Nationals)
He annoys me as one of those guys who is often neither good enough to recommend as a buy or bad enough to think of as a sell, so I’m jumping the gun for a clear reason: I don’t like boring at first base, and he’s boring as an audiobook of 20th-century mathematical theorems narrated by Ben Stein. And played on half speed but modified so it doesn’t even sound like he’s drunk, which frankly is how most fantasy baseball podcasts sound to me when played on 1x speed since I’m 2x or die. Where was I? Oh right, Lowe, and his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, that are all 28th or 29th percentile. That’s among all hitters, and you really don’t want that at first base, okay?
He still has hard contact that’s okay, but he hasn’t been able to put up a decent barrel rate in years, and while it’s a small positive that he increased his launch angle to 10 degrees this year, I’m not sure I like that in order to get there, his K% jumped up to 26%. The name value of being a “set it and forget it” guy has him basically unusable and a failure of opportunity cost, even in 12-team OBP, where his nine percent walk rate this year isn’t even good for a first baseman. Maybe you can still get something for him in an OBP format, especially now that he’s crossed into the psychologically appealing double-digit homer territory (10). You could make a fair argument he’s also droppable in 15-team batting average leagues, though it really depends on what’s on your wire, and there I’d still wait to see if his attempted launch angle mini-revolution can lead to him having a delayed poor-man’s Pasquantino rebound.
Trent Grisham (OF, New York Yankees)
It’s getting awfully crowded in the Yankees lineup with Jazz and Stanton back, and Grisham’s power drought hitting .222 with no homers and two RBI over the past two weeks is unlikely to help his bid to keep playing. His significant drop in rolling 100 PA xwOBA down .096 to just .321 leads me to think he basically will be who we thought he was, and that’s not what you want in 12-teamers. It really is a shame he just decided to stop running altogether, as it was only two years ago he nabbed 15 bags, and it really made a profile like his more interesting in fantasy. As is, he’s like an NYC apartment; better to rent Grisham than to own.
Dishonorable Mention: Wilmer Flores (1B, San Francisco Giants) – My eyes nearly popped out of my skull when I saw that Wilmer Flores has 51 RBI. That’s ninth in baseball, right behind Kyle Schwarber! However, most of that is in the past, and his .233 xBA and .350 xSLG are just so bad for a first baseman. He’s not going to reach 100 RBI, and Devers will likely push him out of PT.
15-team
Carson Kelly (C, Chicago Cubs)
When I recommended Kelly a few weeks ago due to finally getting full-time reps with Amaya down, I really expected, like, for a mild decline from his earlier numbers. But Kelly crashed like a car, son. He’s hit an IMPOSSIBLY BAD .093/.152/.116 with no homers and not even a SINGLE RBI in 43 AB over the past three weeks. Look, I guess the luck dragons giveth and taketh away with him to an extreme degree. But now Amaya’s on the comeback trail, and after this debacle, I wouldn’t be surprised for the Cubs to hand the lion’s share of the gig back to Amaya, or throw Ballesteros into the mix for funzies. He’s a straight cut in 15-team formats, and I’m actually quite glad I was able to flip him a few weeks ago for Jorge Polanco, who I think has a better chance of bouncing back.
Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B, San Diego Padres)
What’s a Cronenworth? Alas, two sickels and a dung bomb. I never have, and never will, understand why he is so widely owned in fantasy, when he’s as boring as grain-free oatmeal with no toppings in an aluminum bowl. He’s hitting just .237 with five HR and two SB, and Statcast says he’s deserved even worse with a .219 xBA and .328 xSLG. Yes, he has a 15% walk rate, I guess, but like… dude, have some standards.
Deep Leagues
Dominic Smith (1B, San Francisco Giants)
I’m really happy for the ol’ Dom that he’s having himself a fine week. It’s not easy to be on the very edge of holding on to a major league job before you’re playing for the Long Island Ducks or something. He’s hit for a nice average and even some power this week. But we know the story with Dom Smith at this point. A hot week or two and then a slow fade to black. I’d only add him with the idea of trading him immediately for a team aching for a short-term fix, and then cutting if no one bites.
Dishonorable Mention: Trey Sweeney (SS, Detroit Tigers) – Sweeney Meeny Miney Mo, Caught this Tiger slumping for a month or so, now he’s a backup, let him go, Sweeney, Meeny Say It Ain’t So.
