Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is throw what you know out the window, and also I hate catchers apparently! I’ve preached patience with many players, but there have been too many players who have been dead weight for too long, and with less than six weeks left, not enough time to count on a turnaround. No, I’m not going to say cut Eugenio Suarez after a few rough weeks in Seattle (actually makes a nice buy-low in trade leagues IMO), but it’s time to get riskier in the name of momentum. Take Kyle Manzardo for example, who I don’t love as a hitter but would happily add him now for Christian Walker even though I still don’t really get why, from a peripherals perspective, Walker has scuffled so badly this year. Maybe we’ll get the explanation in the offseason. But for now, it’s time for the list!
BUY
Dylan Crews (OF, Washington Nationals)
Many expected a smooth journey, but so far his Crews has been a Carnival. And I’ve only been on a cruise once and it was a Carnival 4-day cruise and my girlfriend broke up with me on the first night of it, but hopefully like that experience, it finishes strong (I won a champagne bottle in a karaoke contest). Okay FOCUS, Ben! Crews was quite unlucky at a time before most bad luck seasons (Andrew Vaughn, Ben Rice, etc.) started to turn. His xBA of .251 and xSLG of .458 are closer to what I’d expect going forward, and he steals enough bases to make a big impact. Don’t forget about him because this Crews can also flex, and maybe also loves yogurt.
Dansby Swanson (SS, Chicago Cubs)
He may be seen as past his peak, but it’s too early to call this season his Swansong. Over the past few seasons, he has been in my opinion, one of the most underrated players if you have the guts to stick out the slumps with him, and he’s seen as a declining vet when he’s only 31 and still has lots to provide. While he is admittedly stealing fewer bags, he has the best barrel rate (12%) and HardHit% (48%) of his career, which has resulted in him having a surprisingly impressive .275 xBA and .492 xSLG. That’s a huge difference from his actual .249 AVG and .409 SLG%, and in leagues where you still have a chance to trade, makes a great buy low since most probably assume the numbers were deserved.
Brenton Doyle (OF, Colorado Rockies)
It seems I once again got too impatient and recommended cutting when he was losing playing time, which must’ve lit the fire under him (or just the regression monster woke up from his long slumber). He might still be available because of his lousy season line of .238 with 12 HR and 12 SB, but he’s hit .359 with 4 HR and 2 SB over the past two weeks. Given his underlying stats saying he was due and his still-elite sprint speed, add him immediately if you still can.
Lenyn Sosa (2B/SS, Chicago White Sox)
He’s quietly been one of the best hitters in the second half and a big part of why Chicago has been a sneaky terrific offense since July. The 25-year-old Cuban infielder is hitting a fantastic 7 homers with a .268 AVG and 15 RBI in 71 ABs over the past three weeks, giving him similar output to peak Brandon Lowe. His .285 xBA and .495 xSLG suggest it’s not too late to jump on board, and at this point I think it’s not crazy at all to dump Gleyber or Luis Garcia Jr for him if you need to.
Lourdes Gurriel (OF, Arizona Diamonbacks)
Every year he seemingly has a stretch where everyone says he’s too blah to keep rostering, but he knows how to produce runs. Even without Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, he’s incredibly driven in 21 runs while hitting .243 with 4 HR and 3 SB in 74 AB the past 3 weeks, with 10 of those RBI coming just this week. I also don’t quite get why the batting average isn’t better with a career-best 14% K% with batted ball data that’s basically identical with the past few years. He’s the kind of quality oatmeal hitter I want in 12-teamers.
Jose Caballero (2B/SS/3B/OF, New York Yankees)
It seems all Caballero needed to do was move to Yankee town to get back on the horse. If you don’t get that, take a Spanish class, and you must give one belly rub to a bodega cat. I’m annoyed because I planned to recommend him as a sneakier option before the two homer game made him a high-alert add everywhere, but I still gotta say it. He’s hitting .467 with 4 SB this week, and you can’t worry too much about playing time and streaks, just take him and take what he gives you, when he gives you.
Miguel Andujar (OF, Cincinnati Reds)
It seems him & his new team in Cincy has been quite Andujarmonious. He’s been one of the top 20 biggest xwOBA risers over his past 50 AB. with an excellent .373 xwOBA over that span (up .115). It’s probably true that he’s over his skis a bit with a .264 xBA, but he’s also playing half his games in Great American Smallpark in the summer and has been hitting .400 for weeks. You ride the hot hand, Andujardly hesitate. Yes I made two similar-ish name puns, it’s August and I don’t care.
Owen Caissie (OF, Chicago Cubs)
He’s the Cubs #1 overall prospect and has some serious thump in his bat, and in the early going is whiffing too much, but is hardly struggling, hitting .286 with a homer in his first 14 PA. He’s showing off sweet sweet 75 mph bat speed as advertised with a great 70% LA Sweet Spot%. With a player of his talent, that’s enough good to risk the bad, as I expect he’ll even out the contact issues with more reps.
Nathaniel Lowe (1B, Boston Red Sox)
Sometimes, you just gotta be stupid for a minute, and here’s my dumb argument: He just, like, feels like the kind of hitter who should love hitting at Fenway, and have a renaissance there. He just sort of reminds me of guys like Mitch Moreland and Mike Napoli who made it work, though he’s a bit different from both. But if the change of scenery argument isn’t enough, here’s some evidence to back it: Nathaniel Lowe has a big oppo air rate, and as a lefty, that means a lot more balls hit off da monsta. Try it kid, he could be wicked.
Cole Young (2B/SS, Seattle Mariners)
I like Pina Cole hot bats and getting caught in the Seattle rain. Nothing in his season line of .243/.329/.357 with 4 HRs and 2 SB in 212 AB is likely to raise any eyebrows in redraft formats, but he’s showing a lot of stuff I like. He only has 1 strikeout in his past 17 AB, and over the past 21 days is hitting .268/.412/.512. That’s really useful in OBP, and I’m confident his power will show up more, already hitting a ball 114 mph as a 22-year-old.
Mike Yastrzemski (OF, Kansas City Royals)
You know the Giants must be a depressing team to play on when going to the Royals is what lights your fire. Hey, don’t look now but they’re heating up, largely thanks to him and finally providing an answer for their toothpick-thin outfield depth. He’s rocking a fantastic .422 xwOBA over the past 50 PA, and this past week has 3 HRs (sadly, only 3 RBIs), with a 5/2 BB/K. In 15-teamers and 12-team OBP, you gotta roll with it.
Ramon Urias (3B, Houston Astros)
His bat hasn’t been so interesting, and the return of Altuve means he’s likely a backup utilityman. While his expected stats look pretty terrible this year, he’s a righty who this year has had a massive spike in his PullAir%. It’s not outrageous to think that in the last month plus, he could pull a Paredes lite and just lift balls into the Crawford Boxes a lot when he is in the lineup… but his appeal is limited to very deep AL-only and daily leagues, at least until someone in that aging infield gets hurt again.
Eric Wagaman (1B/3B/OF, Miami Marlins)
He had a big fall from grace when he was being added in 12-teamers (which I said was hype getting too out of control despite him being a preseason sleeper of mine). But while he’s not playing everyday anymore, his production has ticked up with a rising xwOBA for the first time in awhile. That may still be deep league relevant with his rare and quite useful triple eligibility.
Luis Torrens (C, New York Mets)
Alvarez’s unfortunate injury gives Torrens another chance to seize the role, and while it’s true that his xwOBA has been in a significant long-term downtrend, I still think the fact he still has an excellent 51% HardHit%, 12% Barrel%, and an above-average Whiff% means he’s still being possibly overlooked.
Darrell Hernaiz (SS, Athletics)
He’s looking much better than last year, and while he still seriously lacks power, his barrel rate, strikeout and walk rates have all improved significantly to the point that he now looks like a viable major league player, even if not quite yet regular quality. Solid short-term spec stream and we’ll see what happens with him when Wilson returns.
SELL
Jasson Dominguez (OF, New York Yankees)
The Martian seems like he’s been marooned, and this time he didn’t bring a plant. It’s hard to see his solid season line of .256 with 9 HR and 20 SB in 391 PA and think, “Yeah, cutting this bum”, but while he’s been hitting .333 this week, his playing time has been inconsistent, and I think his declining xwOBA the past month puts him in the danger zone of losing more. The stolen bases have also dried up lately with just one stolen base and two caught stealing this month, and while perhaps that’s clutching pearls given that his 20/24 SB success rate is still excellent. But the fact is, aside from the speed, he hasn’t delivered with the bat, with a .243 xBA and .369 xSLG. I’d certainly prefer to roll the dice on high upside plays like Jakob Marsee or Brenton Doyle over him, for example.
Gleyber Torres (2B, Detroit Tigers)
Sticking with him and believing in his rosy Statcast metics was a Gleyber of love. Or Gleyber of Glove? Well a poor defender as he may be, he’s also been quite a poor hitter lately, with a .176/.260/.279 line with 2 HR over 68 AB the past 3 weeks, and no homers over the past 2 weeks. Perhaps he really has been unlucky, but I feel like I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop all season without realizing that Comerica does this to a lot of hitters, and you have to take Statcast for Tigers with a grain of salt. The analysis of “He’s cold, drop him for a hot hitter” may seem lazy, but this late in the year, it’s often effective.
Ivan Herrera (C, St. Louis Cardinals)
A player like Herrera really makes you think “Wow, the baseball season is long, isn’t it?” The formerly unstoppable hitter, while not being useless, has cooled off bigtime since his return, and is hitting just .196/.255/.217 with no homers and 2 SB over 46 AB the last two weeks. While it’s encouraging that he is getting a bigger share of the playing time and now plays as much as a typical catcher if not more, his expected metrics have taken quite a nosedive. His .250 xwOBA over his past 50 PA is the biggest drop by any regular (granted it’s down from .431 which is fantastic). The season line of .289 with 10 HR and 6 SB looks quite good, and his future is bright and stuff. But if you’re in a situation where you don’t need SBs, I don’t think he’s a must-roster catcher in single catcher 12-team leagues. especially if it’s an OBP format.
Josh Smith (1B/3B/SS/OF, Texas Rangers)
His outperformance of his Statcast early on may have seemed like something out of the Matrix, but now he looks an awful lot like last year’s Mr. Smith. His batting average has been in complete freefall, hitting just .167/.236/.227 with 0 HR and 0 SB and only 2 RBI in 66 ABs the past 3 weeks. That’s killing your team any way you slice it. Now his season line of .259 with 9 HR and 9 SB is looking like last year even if his peripherals still look better this year, but if he keeps up like this, that can also change. There’s nothing worth holding onto him for even in 15-team leagues despite the useful eligibility.
Austin Wells (C, New York Yankees)
Someone call Lassie, someone’s stuck at the bottom of the Wells. Everyone who has continued to roster him. We were so busy talking about if Stanton’s arrival and Rice’s bat would push out Goldy that we didn’t see this coming enough, but he’s had just 15 AB over the past two weeks and hasn’t made anyone regret it, hitting just .133 with no homers. He’s easily droppable in 15-team formats despite the 15 HR and 5 SB in 316 AB, since that .206 AVG makes him look way too much like Bo Naylor for this year. You do NOT want your numbers to look like Bo Naylor, folks.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B, New York Yankees)
The good news is that he’s hitting .400 this week! The bad news is that it’s come in 10 AB, that’s 3 games. The 37-year-old first baseman’s overall numbers still look cromulent with a .279/.333/.426 line with 10 HR and 5 SB in 406 AB, but that power is quite weak for a first baseman, the walk rate is no longer plus, and it seems like he’ll likely continue being more of a part-time player to keep him healthy, or that’s what they’ll tell him instead of that the other Yankees hitters are simply better.
Jesus Sanchez (OF, Houston Astros)
I don’t get how a hitter can go from a pitcher’s park like Miami to a hitter’s park like Houston and get worse. Sanchez has been an absolute zero this week, by which I mean he has literally hit 0/15, and over the past 2 weeks it’s not much better with a .083 with 0s in everything in 36 AB. He has sacrificed power for contact this year and frankly I think that was a mistake, as his total line of .241 with 10 HR and 9 SB in 381 AB is quite ineffectual and not unlucky. I’d rather roll with a Miguel Vargas or even take a chance on prospects Dylan Beavers or Owen Caissie at this point in 12-teamers.
Luis Urias (2B/3B, Athletics)
One Urias up, one Urias down. There was a point earlier in the season where it really seemed like he may have finally turned a corner, with an elite contact rate and a high PullAir% that seemed like the perfect recipe for a great season with half his games at Sacre Verde. But after a solid May homer streak, his bat has been paper-thin and he’s gone back to hitting pitiful grounders, and is now a part-timer. No thanks.
Jacob Melton (OF, Houston Astr0s)
The good news is he’s playing just about every day now, the bad news is he has a 42% K% and 6% BB% and has deserved his absolutely awful production. Give me the other Melton (Troy) in all leagues please. Even in keeper formats I’d probably still look elsewhere.
Ryan Ritter (SS, Colorado Rockies)
He had great power numbers in the minors, but in his MLB stint, his expected stats are awful. Apparently in the great hitter’s haven of Coors, he just want to hit singles all day. Well, Ryan Ritter does sound like the name of a pop country singer who would have a few hit singles.
