Two AL Central closers that had sleeper potential early on in the season have been struggling as of late, as as a result are moving down the list significantly this week. James McArthur has had trouble missing bats lately with just a 14% strikeout rate since the start of May and it’s led to a high BABIP (.340) and WHIP (1.68). This has also led to a 7.90 ERA over that span which is surely frustrating for McArthur mangers and Royal fans alike, but the 3.71 SIERA isn’t horrible and this team really has no alternatives at the moment. McArthur is probably still a safe bet to close out games, at least until the Royals trade for someone (they had interest in Kenley Jansen this offseason before settling for John Schreiber…), but he’s far from being a must roster right now.
Michael Kopech on the other hand will likely benefit from being traded himself, although it’s not a guarantee he is moved or that he would be a closer wherever he should land. Kopech has also been dealing with high BABIP issues since the start of May (.370) but his command has also been an issue (14.3% walk rate) and the swing and miss has come back down to earth (26.8% strikeout and 12.2% swinging-strike rates). We’ve seen Kopechs velo drop a little as well, as he’s now sitting around 98 mph more often, and he has not been trusting his secondaries at all making it easy for hitters to time him up. Theres a ton of upside here if he goes to a team with good pitching development that can fix him in their lab, but he may only be worth holding on to in deeper holds leagues at this point.
Notes
- Edwin Díaz is expected to return to the Mets bullpen today and should be back in the closer role right away. Díaz looked fine in two rehab assignments and more likely than not this IL stint was just a chance for him to reset/recharge after having some rough outings. As long as he can get luck back on his side, or at least neutral, he should go back to being a top closer option.
- Tier 3 has changed this week as they are the group I really don’t know how to value or rank as they may all be short term closing options. I suppose that could be the case for almost anyone on this list anyway, and I personally would rather one more month of Trevor Megill or Tanner Scott closing out games than waiting and hoping for guys like Camilo Doval or David Bednar to turn things around. It’s still early enough in the season to justify chasing upside here over “security”.
- Tier 4 gets knocked down a bit and it really comes down to personal preference, roster construction and league settings as to which Tier (3 or 4) you should value higher. In shallower leagues, points leagues, SV+HLD leagues or even most head to head formats, I’d rather have someone from Tier 3. In roto leagues, or deeper leagues where saves may be harder to come by, Tier 4 probably has the better long term, rest of season value.
- Héctor Neris is starting to settle down and has now strung together a nice string of outings over his past 9 innings pitched. Over this span he holds a 27.3% strikeout rate, 0.89 WHIP, and 3.21 SIERA, which all are pretty good and we will gladly take from Neris. However, this does come with just 9.9% swinging-strike and 20.4% CSW rates along with 84 Stuff+ so lets not get too excited just yet as the stuff clearly isn’t there yet.
And if you want more daily reliever updates, please check out our Reliever Ranks series
Watch List
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jeff Hoffman | PHI | likely 2nd in line for saves in committee |
| 2. | Hunter Harvey | WAS | Way better than Finnegan skills wise |
| 3. | Griffin Jax | MIN | Apparently Duran won’t see every save |
| 4. | Fernando Cruz | CIN | Sims may be next, but Cruz has upside |
| 5. | Reed Garrett | NYM | Díaz should be safe but who knows |
| 6. | Shelby Miller | DET | has been steady in the back end… |
| 7. | Mark Leiter Jr. | CHC | Better than Neris, but less experience |
| 8. | Chad Green | TOR | secondary option with Romano out |
| 9. | A.J. Puk | MIA | back in the pen where he’s excelled before |
| 10. | Justin Slaten | BOS | Jansen is all but guaranteed to be moved |
| Rank | Pitcher | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmanuel ClaseT1 | - |
| 2 | Josh Hader | - |
| 3 | Andrés Muñoz | - |
| 4 | Mason Miller | - |
| 5 | Ryan HelsleyT2 | - |
| 6 | Edwin Díaz | +UR |
| 7 | Pete Fairbanks | - |
| 8 | Evan Phillips | -2 |
| 9 | Jhoan Duran | -1 |
| 10 | Clay Holmes | -1 |
| 11 | Trevor MegillT3 | +8 |
| 12 | Tanner Scott | +8 |
| 13 | Yimi García | +8 |
| 14 | Craig KimbrelT4 | -4 |
| 15 | Paul Sewald | -4 |
| 16 | Robert Suarez | -4 |
| 17 | Camilo Doval | -4 |
| 18 | David Bednar | -4 |
| 19 | Raisel Iglesias | -4 |
| 20 | Kirby Yates | -3 |
| 21 | José Alvarado | -3 |
| 22 | Kyle Finnegan | - |
| 23 | Kenley Jansen | - |
| 24 | James McArthurT5 | -8 |
| 25 | Alexis Díaz | - |
| 26 | Héctor Neris | +3 |
| 27 | Carlos Estévez | -1 |
| 28 | Michael Kopech | -4 |
| 29 | Jason Foley | -2 |
| 30 | Jalen Beeks | - |