Jhoan Duran, Evan Phillips, and Pete Fairbanks are three closers I had as elite or near elite heading into the season who have really failed to prove they belong in the top two tiers, especially as of late. Now they have each spent time on the IL at some point this season, so that certainly could be a factor, but either way, they just haven’t lived up to expectations. Duran’s diminished velo has led to a pedestrian strikeout rate (19.8% over his past 22.2 IP) and just an overall lack of bat-missing ability (53.3% Z-Contact – O-Swing). It’s a concern for those who were looking for a dominant closer, but at least he has made things work with high groundball rates and an ability to induce weak contact.
As for Phillips, he’s been quite mediocre since returning from the IL earlier in June, with just a 20.9% strikeout rate and 4.19 xFIP over 11 innings. He too has seen a bit of a decrease in velo since returning from the IL, although not from his fastball, but from his cutter and slider. In Fairbanks’ case, he holds just 24.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% swinging-strike rates over the past eight weeks, and the third worst Z-Contact – O-Swing rate amongst closers over that span (58.2%). Fairbanks, who had a 39.1% strikeout rate between 2022 and 2023, is struggling mightily to miss bats all of a sudden, as he too deals with diminished velocity this season.
Notes
- Raisel Iglesias may not have the greatest K rate on the year (as was mentioned last week) but an uptick in velo recently has him back on track and I think it’s safe to say back to being a top 10 closer option. Over the past eight weeks, Iglesias holds 27.3% strikeout and 32.8% CSW rates, so it’s clear the bat-missing ability is improving.
- Trevor Megill and Tanner Scott’s time on this list may be coming to an end very soon, but they’ve both been pitching like top-five closers since the start of May so be sure to hold on to them until we know they won’t be closing anymore. Scott could definitely continue closing out games wherever he lands this month, so he especially is worth holding on to (and potentially even buying super low if possible). Megill on the other hand will likely lose the closer role once Devin Williams is reinstated from the IL, although it’s worth hanging on to him for a while just to make sure Williams is 100% after returning from a serious back injury.
- I admittedly slept on Kyle Finnegan this year and maybe the takeaway here is that as long as the closer is throwing 97+ MPH and keeping a walk rate under 10%, they will likely have success. Finnegan has been fantastic over the past eight weeks with a 23.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate and 2.81 xFIP and could be the Nationals closer the rest of the way. Or the Nationals could decide to sell high (they should) and look to move Finnegan this month while his value is likely at its highest. The way he’s pitching now, there’s still a chance he could be closing out games for a new team come August.
- Paul Sewald could also find himself on the move this month as he is a free agent this upcoming offseason. Sewald holds sparkling ratios with a 0.54 ERA and 0.48 WHIP this season, but he hasn’t exactly been his best self recently, with a 3.99 xFIP and 27% CSW rate over the past 8 weeks. We don’t know what the Diamondbacks plan will be this trade deadline, but if they do decide to sell, Sewald should be a hot commodity.
And if you want more daily reliever updates, please check out our Reliever Ranks series
Watch List
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jeff Hoffman | PHI | likely 2nd in line for saves in committee |
| 2. | Fernando Cruz | CIN | Sims may be next, but Cruz has upside |
| 3. | Griffin Jax | MIN | Duran may not see every save chance |
| 4. | A.J. Puk | MIA | Scott is guaranteed to be traded |
| 5. | Justin Slaten | BOS | Jansen and Martin could be moved |
| 6. | Kevin Ginkel | ARZ | If Sewald ends up on the move… |
| 7. | Josh Sborz | TEX | chance Yates, Robertson and Leclerc move |
| 8. | Julian Merryweather | CHC | Neris may be traded, best option if healthy |
| 9. | Ben Joyce | LAA | closer of the future, may begin this year |
| 10. | Robert Garcia | WAS | Nats could move most of this bullpen |
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmanuel ClaseT1 | CLE | - |
| 2 | Josh Hader | HOU | - |
| 3 | Edwin DíazT2 | LAD | - |
| 4 | Andrés Muñoz | SEA | - |
| 5 | Mason Miller | SD | - |
| 6 | Raisel IglesiasT3 | ATL | +10 |
| 7 | Ryan Helsley | BAL | -1 |
| 8 | Craig Kimbrel | NYM | +2 |
| 9 | Pete FairbanksT4 | MIA | -2 |
| 10 | Jhoan Duran | PHI | -1 |
| 11 | Evan Phillips | LAD | -3 |
| 12 | Trevor MegillT5 | MIL | -1 |
| 13 | Tanner Scott | LAD | -1 |
| 14 | Kyle FinneganT6 | DET | +5 |
| 15 | Robert Suarez | ATL | - |
| 16 | Clay Holmes | NYM | -3 |
| 17 | Camilo Doval | NYY | - |
| 18 | Kirby Yates | LAA | - |
| 19 | Paul Sewald | ARI | -5 |
| 20 | José Alvarado | PHI | - |
| 21 | Kenley Jansen | DET | - |
| 22 | Carlos Estévez | KC | - |
| 23 | Michael KopechT7 | SD | +2 |
| 24 | James McArthur | KC | -1 |
| 25 | Alexis Díaz | TEX | -1 |
| 26 | Jason Foley | SF | - |
| 27 | Chad Green | +1 | |
| 28 | Aroldis Chapman | BOS | -1 |
| 29 | Héctor Neris | - | |
| 30 | Jalen Beeks | TEX | - |
