Hello Deep Leaguers! These introductions get harder to write as the season wears on. There are no more All-Star Games or trade deadlines to talk about. We’re still a few weeks away from our playoffs and even further from real-life playoffs. There have been some NFL preseason games too, so some national focus will of course turn towards football. But there are still interesting players getting opportunities. Joshua Baez just had the biggest MLB debut we’ve ever seen! Konnor Griffin is on the mend! Roman Anthony is swinging! (a bat, I know nothing of his personal life). Ketel Marte went from MIA to MRI. I didn’t help search for him because I’ve been too busy looking for…
Fallers
Héctor Rodríguez, Outfield, Cincinnati Reds – 2% Rostered
I foreshadowed Héctor Rodríguez’s appearance here a couple weeks ago. I was hoping he’d show up much later in the article, since I had stashed him all over the place, but he’s off to a 3-for-31 start, so here we are.
It hasn’t been all bad though. Rodriguez has a nearly 10% walk rate, which is a bit higher than he had at AAA. That’s really it though; the rest has, in fact, been bad. He’s striking out at a 26% rate, which is 6% higher than his K rate at AAA. His whiff rate is marginally worse in the Bigs, but his chase rate is the real problem. He was in the bottom 10% of all AAA players for chase rate, and that’s carried over to a nearly 40% chase rate in the Majors.
He’s not made much contact, and has yet to record a barreled ball. His hard-hit rate barely exists, and his exit velocity is under 88 MPH. The playing time had been there, as Rodriguez started in 7 out of 9 games following his promotion, but he sat for the entire three-game series against the White Sox. He did record his first MLB RBI on Monday, and it’s a very small sample, so he may begin to heat up.
I still think he’s a player to keep an eye on for the future, but so far it looks like his penchant for chasing pitches out of the zone is going to be a major issue. There won’t be many, if any, stolen bases, and he hasn’t done anything to make me think he’ll help us this season.
Travis Bazzana, Second Base, Cleveland Guardians – 26% Rostered
It’s been an up-and-down debut season for the former first overall pick. He started off hot with a .311 average and .874 OPS in May – his first full month in the Majors. But he batted under .200 in June, bounced back a bit (.231 average) in July, and has slumped again in August. He’s slashing .195/.298/.220 so far this month. He did have “lucky” and “unlucky” BABIPS that correlated with his up-and-down monthly splits, and his .267 BABIP in August is the most average BABIP he’s recorded.
For the full season, he checks in at .235/.332/.372 with 9 homers and 17 stolen bases. He’s got a plus walk rate, a strong chase rate, and a 22% K rate that isn’t too bad for a rookie. His power metrics have lagged, though. Bazzana has a sub-70 MPH bat speed, which is rare to see in younger players lately. It feels like everyone under 24 whom I cover is swinging 74 MPH or faster. However, Bazzana’s exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are all in the league’s bottom third.
His process chart is a nice visual indicator of how his season has gone. He hasn’t been able to reproduce his strong first month, but his contact ability and decision value have held for most of the season, except for a slump in late July. Even though the recent returns haven’t been great, Bazzana has put together a nice rookie campaign. He could still finish with 20 homers and double-digit steals, and his strong decision-making and contact ability is a solid base to build upon.
J.T. Realmuto, Catcher, Philadelphia Phillies – 20% Rostered
I know catcher is a tough position to fill and Realmuto has been a household name for a decade or so, but I was still surprised to see his roster percentage so high. He did have a resurgence in July, as he slashed .292/.356/.492 with 3 homers over 20 games. However, that came with an inflated .352 BABIP, and he had previously batted under .200 for the entirety of May and June. But he’s lost his lucky BABIP and is slashing just .170/.226/.192 with no homers and a 12:4 K:BB ratio so far in August.
Realmuto is 35 and in the twilight of a great career. He’s still producing above-average exit velocities, but his hard-hit rate has fallen below the mean, and his barrel rate has dipped into the league’s bottom 25%. It looks like he’ll finish the season with an OPS under .700 for the first time in over a decade. And yet, his process chart is trending upwards!
Now’s the time where I unveil that Realmuto’s xBA on the season is .256, a whopping 40 points higher than his actual batting average. We’ve acknowledged his poor BABIP for most of the season, but both his process chart and expected stats agree that he’s suffered from some bad batted ball luck this season. I’m not saying he’s got another month like July in him, but it wouldn’t be the craziest thing we’ve seen.
Risers
Jared Young, First Base and Outfield, New York Metropolitans – 8% Rostered
It’s easy to focus on the young guys that get opportunities to play after the trade deadline shakes things up, but there are plenty of veterans and journeymen that see upticks in playing time too. Jared Young fits that bill perfectly, and he’s been swinging a hot bat for more than a month now. He didn’t show much pop in July, slugging just a single homer in 67 plate appearances, but he slashed .288/.373/.407 and has stayed hot most of the way through August. He’s batting .314 with an .887 OPS while starting 13 of 14 games for the Mets this month.
His 47.7% hard-hit rate and 90.2 MPH average exit velocity are well above league average, and he’s striking out in just 19% of his at-bats. We don’t get too many guys with plus power and strong K rates in DLRF, so it’s nice to see something a little different.
Young’s process chart highlights his variability over the season pretty well. He hit 5 dingers but batted just .205 in June, and we already covered his high average, one homer July. But everything is trending upward lately while he’s getting a shot at a full-time gig. There’s very little speed and moderate power here, but Young could provide a good facsimile of a poor man’s Ryan O’Hearn down the stretch, and that would be a big help.
Jacob Young, Outfield, Washington Nationals – 4% Rostered
Young is another player who played in most games before the trade deadline and has shifted to a more full-time starting role since. He also hit very well in July (.333/.453/.524 in 42 AB) and has kept it going through August. He’s also been a high-variability player over the season, as we can see below.
May was the only month in which he’s hit more than 2 homers, but he batted just .226 over 84 at-bats that month. He hit .333 in July, but logged just one homer, so it’s been either power or contact so far. He’s got great wheels too; he’s chipped in 13 steals this season, and is right about on a 20-steal-per-full-season pace for the year.
His usual power metrics are all below average, with his hard hate of just 33% representing his poorest showing. On the other hand, he’s produced very strong whiff and chase rates and has struck out in fewer than 17% of his at-bats. I don’t think he’ll hit many more dingers, but he should be a stolen base and batting average boost for the remainder of the year, and the Nats have every reason to let him keep playing, especially while James Wood remains in the IL. Remember: Jared Young for pop from the corner, Jacob Young for speed from the outfield.
Drew Gilbert, Outfield, San Francisco Giants – 1% Rostered
Gilbert had a nice start to the season. He batted .279 with a couple of homers and a .753 OPS through 43 at-bats in April. But he’s struggled since and failed to record an OPS over .700 through May, June, and July. He has been swinging a hot stick lately, though, slashing .275/.362/.475 with two homers, a 6:7 K:BB ratio, and his only steal of the season through 40 at-bats in August.
Gilbert’s hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity are all in the league’s bottom quartile, and he’s got average sprint speed. But he’s posted an above-average whiff rate, a top 20% chase rate, and an overall K rate of just 16%. His K:BB rate has improved dramatically since earlier in the year too. Gilbert had 25 Ks and 6 BBs through 122 plate appearances at the end of May. He has just 23 Ks and 22 BBs over 176 plate appearances from the start of June through today. That improvement in both rates is dramatic.
His process chart is trending entirely in the right direction, and has been since mid-June, with just a little hiccup along the way. Gilbert is just 25 and has shown a lot of growth at the plate already this season. He hasn’t stolen bases and hasn’t shown much over-the-fence power, but this is a talented player with first-round pedigree who has made tangible improvements over the season and should continue to play full-time for the Giants. He’s batted leadoff for the last two games and could be a nice source of runs and batting average down the stretch. He also needs to be on the radar as a potential offseason target.
Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
