I really enjoy playing fantasy baseball. I like the pre-planning, the re-planning, the drafting, the head to head matchup strategy, all of it. But most of all, I love getting a week off in late August or early September. Oh, there’s nothing quite like a fantasy baseball playoff bye week is there? That Kyle Harrison disaster? It rolls right off my back, because I’m on a bye, doesn’t count. PCA can hit 30 bombs this week, none of them will count against me. (Sure wish I had that guy on more rosters though.) I’ve been singing NSYNC to myself all week! Baby, that bye bye bye-week is a truly worthwhile reward for a well played season. So congratulations to everyone to who isn’t playing this week.
Fallers
Esteury Ruiz, Outfield, Miami Marlins
2% Rostered
Ruiz is an odd bird, but he’s been a useful fantasy asset for much of the year. He’s never really been a starting player for Marlins this season, although he did draw 17 starts in August, while appearing in 21 games. Despite the lack of a full-time gig, Ruiz has stolen 30 bases so far this year, and has been stealing consistently throughout the season. He stole 7 in May, 8 in June, and 9 in July. He managed just 4 thefts in August, but not for lack of trying, he was caught 4 times.
Ruiz provided solid batting averages and on base percentages in June and July, although they were supported by BABIPs north of .440. We do expect speed demons like Ruiz to carry higher than normal BABIPs, since they can reach base on ground balls more often than lumbering sluggers, but .440 BABIPs don’t last.
Ruiz’s BABIP did indeed drop to a still-well-above-average .321 in August, and his batting average cratered to .200. It was a shame to see, I’d have loved to see Ruiz get into a rhythm with the expanded playing time. He’s a typical speedster with terrible power metrics, but he also has poor contact skills. His whiff, chase, and K rates are all above 30%. He does walk at a good rate, but he simply doesn’t hit enough. If you are desperate for speed, he could still be one of the best stolen base sources in the league for the remainder of the season, but he’ll likely be a batting average drain.
Spencer Horwitz, First Base, Pittsburgh Pirates
5% Rostered
Horwitz was having a great season, slashing .280/.386/.455 with 10 homers in 74 games played before a hamstring injury shut him down for a month. He has struggled mightily since his return, slashing just .141/.221/.154 with no homers in 21 games.
Horwitz was our featured player back in week 10, when he was absolutely on fire. Although even back then we noted that he was primarily an on-base specialist with moderate power at best. His exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates were all in the league’s bottom 20%. His hard hit rate and exit velocity are still right there, but his barrel rate has actually climbed almost up to league average.
Back in week 10, his whiff, chase and K rates were all in the top 10% of the league and his whiff rate remains elite, while his chase and K rates have dipped a bit and sit around the 80th percentile right now. He’s still carrying a strong 12% walk rate too.
His process chart illustrates his struggles well. We can see his decision value dip below the mean, his contact rate wain and his power output cliff dive. Konnor Griffin is also nearing a return to MLB action, and I would expect Horwitz’s hold on the leadoff spot against right handed pitching will weaken when that happens. I would probably hold on in OBP leagues with 16 teams or more, but look for a replacement anywhere else.
Colt Keith, First Base, Second Base, and Third Base, Detrot Tigers.
8% Rostered
I was pretty high on Keith coming into the season. He had improved all of us underlying metrics year over year between 2024 and 25 and I thought a breakout was looming. He started the season hitting for average, but not much else. Then he slumped through May, before trading his batting average for some modest power in June. July was his best overall month by far. He batted over .320 while launching 3 dingers. But then he fell off in August, slashing just .231/.351/.338 with one homer and 6 RBI.
His power metrics were within a few percentage points of the MLB mean in 2025 and they’re right back there again for 2026. He’s held steady with his above average chase, whiff and K rates too. He’s even managed to drop his K rate under 20% this season. But his walk rate has dropped from 10% in 2025 to just over 7% this season. He’s been walking a lot more recently however, and has been an OBP boost for a couple months.
That process chart is dramatic enough to suggest to me that Keith was battling an injury through most of May and June. We can see how similar the periods before and after that slump look and players with this kind of low K rate profile don’t often slump for such extended periods.
So maybe 2026 wasn’t a breakout year for Colt Keith. He’s still giving us a plus average, and if his recent uptick in walk rate (back to his career norm) holds up, he should be an OBP asset as well. I still think this is a useful player, especially in OBP formats, and points leagues that penalize strike outs.
Risers
Randy Dobnak, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals
17% Rostered
Dobnak is a Pittsburgh area native, so I’m delighted I get to include him here. A 31 year old journeyman with just under 200 career innings to his name, Dobnak made his season debut for KC just before the All Star Break. He made two relief appearances, but has worked exclusively as a starter post break. He’s made 8 starts, and has pitched to a 2-2 record with 2 quality starts, a 1.93 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a 30:17 K:BB ratio.
That low K rate does a fine job demonstrating how underwhelming Dobnak’s stuff really is. His primary offering is a 91 MPH sinker with a ton of drop that has yielded a .275 opponent batting average, but has also kept him out of trouble with a .352 opponent slugging percentage that is nearly 100 points below it’s expected slugging percentage.
And yet, 4 of Dobnak’s 5 pitches have positive run values on the season. Only his slider, his least utilized pitch at just 5%, has a negative run value. He’s excelled at limiting barrels (95th percentile) and inducing grounders (93rd percentile). But his K rate lies in the 6th percentile, his xBA in the 4th percentile and he’s got a sub par walk rate. He’s striking out less than two batters for every walk issued.
In short, Dobnak looks like a prime regression candidate, and that regression could come hard and fast. Thankfully, his next two turns are set to come against the Marlins (Yesterday for those reading on the day of publication) and Blue Jays. Those teams have both had middling offenses for the last month and wouldn’t necessarily scare me away from deploying Dobnak. However, if he falters against Miami, I’m out for the Jays game.
Jonah Cox, Outfielder, San Francisco Giants.
2% Rostered
The Giants have had a nice influx of youth in the weeks since the trade deadline. Drew Gilbert was our featured player just two weeks ago, and now we’ll take a look at Jonah Cox, a 25 year old outfield prospect. Cox attended Oral Roberts University, and has slashed .286/.318/.556 with 4 homers and a whopping 8 stolen bases through his first 69 MLB plate appearances. Nice.
Cox hasn’t been a full time player, but has started in 5 of the Giants last six games. It’s a small sample, but over those 6 contests, Cox has gone 6 for 20 with 2 homers and 4 stolen bases. He’s been all gas, no brakes, as his power metrics would all be in elite territory if he had the at bats to qualify. We’re talking an average exit velocity over 92 MPH, a 14% barrel rate and a 45% hard hit rate.
On the other hand, we have the lack of brakes. Cox is chasing nearly 40% of pitches outside the zone. He’s whiffing at 40% of the pitches he swings at and he’s striking out at a 45% clip! Now, he didn’t strike out nearly this much at AAA. Cox had just a 17% K rate in the minors, and his whiff and chase rates were above average for the level. His speed is legitimate too, he has great sprint speed and had 34 steals in 55 minor league games.
So that MLB K rate is staggering, and it’s a huge flashing warning sign. But his minor league K rate was so much better and he’s been so hot lately, that I can’t deny I want a piece. He’s seen his playing time tick up lately too. Between Cox and Ruiz, two speedsters with similar roster percentages, I actually prefer Cox.
Hector Rodriguez. Outfield, Cincinnati Reds
16% Rostered
First, I can’t believe a player named Hector Rodriquez, who has plus speed and plays for the Reds isn’t nicknamed “Hot Rod”. Anyway, Hot Rod had a rough first few weeks in the Majors, starting out just 3 for 31 and landed in our Fallers section two weeks ago. Since then, however, he’s slashed .316/.381/.658 with 4 homers. He’s got his barrel rate up over 10% and his K rate down to 23%. Which, while not great, is a big improvement over the 26% K rate he had last we looked.
He has a 26% whiff rate too, but the chase rate has been his biggest issue. He was at 40% two weeks ago, and he’s only managed to drop it to 39%. He just has not been able to lay off pitches out of the zone. He’s also hitting a ton of ground balls, which doesn’t allow him to take advantage of GABP’s small dimensions.
He’s likely going to be a full time player for the remainder of the year since the Reds are at the bottom of the NL Central (remember how long the NL Central had more winning teams than the entire AL this year?), and he’s absolutely someone to keep an eye on. He did hit 27 dingers in 104 AAA games this season. But if he keeps chasing balls with Golden Retriever level enthusiasm, he’s going to be strike out fodder.
That’s it for week 24! Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
