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Slate Details
OwnersBox- Main slate (12 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (12 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Weather Impact
Some scattered thunderstorms are projected to roll through Denver today and may cause a delay for the MIL@COL game, but the chance of a postponement is low.
Pitching
Gerrit Cole and Zac Gallen are our Aces of the Day. Gallen has been nearly untouchable lately and is an excellent pick even as his price skyrockets. Gallen has not allowed a run in four straight starts and 28 consecutive innings. In that span, he’s struck out 11, 7, 11, and 12 batters, respectively. Batters are rarely even getting on base, collecting just 11 hits and one single walk.
I’m taking gallons and gallons of Gallen on my DFS teams until further notice. If for some strange reason you don’t like Gallen today, Cole is a very acceptable 1B option. His overall body of work this season exceeds Gallen’s, so I won’t knock anybody for leaning that way.
I almost want to include Joe Ryan with that top pair for the way he’s pitched this season and the fact that he’s facing the Chicago White Sox, who have inspired some epic rants from their fans lately. Ryan has displayed freakish control with a walk rate in the 93rd percentile and a chase rate in the 94th percentile. He has nearly a 30% whiff rate on ALL THREE of his main pitches.
There are a few other guys that deserve recognition but should not be your main focus. That list includes Julio Urías, Anthony DeSclafani, and Hunter Brown.
Urias has been a bit of a mystery box lately. He was hit hard by the Pirates and the Cubs in his last two outings. DeSclafani bounced back with a strong start against the Cardinals his last time out, but the Astros are a different beast. Brown also had a nice bounce back performance against the Rays following disaster against Atlanta. I like him against the Giants who continue to be an exploitable matchup as long as they strike out at a league-leading pace (10.64 Ks per game overall and 10.67 over the past three).
The value bet of the day goes to Hayden Wesneski. He’s been up and down this season with a 5.24 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, but he’s won two of his past three starts and pitched an absolute gem against the Oakland A’s just a couple of weeks ago. In that game, Wesneski had 11 Whiffs and a 39% CSW on just 90 pitches. If he can harness that same form against the light-hitting Nationals, the value would be off the charts.
Tanner Bibee is another to consider as he takes on the New York Yankees. The Yanks have lost four straight with an ever-growing list of All-Stars hitting the IL. Bibee’s major league debut last week was very encouraging. The top prospect touched 98.5 mph on his four-seamer and finished 5 2/3 innings, allowing just one run on six hits and an 8:0 K:BB ratio. He collected 11 whiffs and a 33% CSW on 91 pitches.
Hitting
It’s always a good day with Coors Field on the schedule. Ryan Feltner has pitched well for the Rockies lately, but he has almost exclusively worked on the road this season and still has a 4.68 ERA. While the Brewers are in a bit of an offensive funk, I wouldn’t mind paying for some of the guys with strong splits. Rowdy Tellez has a .921 OPS vs righties this season and has been putting the ball in play consistently the past couple weeks.
Willy Adames has been useless against lefties but is otherwise slashing .270/.364/.486. Brian Anderson, Christian Yelich, and Jesse Winker also are considerations. On the Colorado side, C.J. Cron busted a 2-for-20 streak with a three-run home run, a double, and an RBI single on Sunday.
Nick Senzel was a recommended pick yesterday and paid off in spades as he continues a torrid stretch. Last night, he was 3-for-4 with a solo home run and has 13 hits over his past six games. We’ve seen this from Senzel before. He’s tough to slow down once he gets cooking and we should continue to ride the wave as far as it takes us.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is starting to roll at the plate and is bringing the entire Padres offense with him. While Graham Ashcraft has been a serviceable pitcher for the Reds this season, the Padres are getting hot and have the talent to run down anybody on the bump. Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth are all on fire.
Speaking of fire, that’s exactly what we’ve been getting from Byron Buxton these days. He has five home runs over his past eight games. It’s impossible to guarantee another home run, but I’m right on the edge of doing just that as he takes on Michael Kopech. Kopech’s Statcast page is truly a sight to behold with bottom percentile marks in xSLG, xERA/xwOBA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity.
I’d try to work in quite a few other Minnesota bats today too with my favorites being Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Max Kepler.
As long as we’re picking on struggling pitchers, we should look at the Cardinals’ Steven Matz who will try to get on track against the Angels. Shohei Ohtani is batting .385/.407/.731 with a pair of home runs over the past week, Mike Trout continues to obliterate baseballs, and Brandon Drury shines against lefties with a .290/.321/.605 split over the past three years.
A few other hot hands to chase today include Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, Jorge Mateo, Cal Raleigh, and Brent Rooker.